Robert Prechter's monthly Elliott Wave Theorist once published a ten-part study explaining why traditional financial models failed to foresee the 2007-2009 financial crisis -- and, more importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again).
On Thursday (Sept. 17), the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Friday, stocks opened down big. But before you join those who blame it on the Fed, please read this excerpt from Prechter's eye-opening study.
Economic theory holds that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. The higher the income that investors can get from safe bonds, the less attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks; conversely, the less income that investors can get from safe bonds, the more attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks. A statement of this construction appears to be sensible.
And it would be, if it were made in the field of economics. For example, "Rising prices for beef make chicken a more attractive purchase." This statement is simple and true. But in the field of finance such statements fly directly in the face of the evidence.
The U.S. housing market may be about to implode -- again.
Before I get into the "why," know that the residential real estate market never fully recovered.
Annualized new home sales this past July stood at 507,000, vs. the July 2005 peak of 1.39 million. The chart and commentary from the August Elliott Wave Theorist offer:
The percentage of Americans who own a home is still plummeting despite the partial recovery in real estate prices. Today, the percentage of families owning homes in America has plunged to its lowest level in 48 years, nearly half a century. ... By saddling home-buyers with massive debts, the government has done the opposite of what it promised; it has ruined the American Dream for tens of millions of families. Now it's doing the same thing to education ... .
The "personality" of a third wave shows itself in recent market action
By Elliott Wave International
A classic issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist published this exchange:
Q. Do you believe that the Wave Principle provides for an objective form of analysis? ... There are market watchers who say that applying wave theory is very subjective.
Prechter: I always ask, "compared to what?" There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same "fundamental" news event ... and come up with countless opposing conclusions. ... The Wave Principle is an excellent basis for assessing probabilities regarding future market movement. Probabilities are by nature different from certainties. Some people misinterpret this aspect of analysis as subjectivity, but all probabilities may be put in order objectively according to the rules and guidelines of wave formation.
So: While no one can "see" the future, you can use the Wave Principle to assess probabilities.
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