A major technical indicator which forecast the last 64.00 points on the upside in the S&P 500 flashed a negative signal on Friday.
In my new video I will share with you this same signal that I witnessed and some of the potential downside targets for this market. My new video gets right to the point and is short in duration. I think you will get a lot out of this particular video.
There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments.
Enjoy the video and please give us your feedback on this blog.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Satyre,
The Trade Triangle are dynamic. They appear that day not after the fact but when they are triggered. That could be anytime during the day.
I hope this is a definitive answer to your question.
All the best,
Adam
I think you missed my point. When did those triangles appear on the chart?
Did it appear on the same point in time as you shown on the previous occasions in your charts? Wherever there is a triangle, does your program place that triangle on that day itself?
To avoid anymore misunderstanding or playing with words like few other respondents on this board, If there is a triangle on a chart, say on 6/1/09, did your program placed that triangle on 6/1/09 itself or after several days watching where it goes and then put it on that date conveniently?
response to Comment by d. sillik
Dear fellow trader,
Please be very careful with your hard earned capital. Anyone investing in anything would have made money in the market since the March rally. A trap is set for unseasoned players. It can look to a newby that winning is always there. They may even be tempted to go all in, or up the ante significantly based on past good returns. Please be advised... Like a mosquito will buzz a victim a few times so see if it is okay to land for a bite, the market can lull a person in before it crushes them. Like a thief that stalks a house to see if anyone is home before he breaks in and steals. Constant vigilance is required. Good money management techniques, know the exit before you get in...
The exuberant market of the last few months can turn on a dime. And go down 10 times faster and harder and than it went up.... That possibility is always there, it can happen and does happened and will happen again some point.......
Best wishes.
Meena
hi traders,
i'm new to the market as of late last year. i have invested 100's hours of research as well as just browsing the net in search of good info. i have decided to subscribe to the tech theory with fundamental added for good seasoning. i don't know much at all when it comes to all the chartist stuff, i want to sign up for the free trial but being ignorant, i'm afraid it would be a waste of time...i just don't think i'm ready. i'm looking for advice as to where or how to find out all i can about tech indicators, videos work the best for me, reading is hard and puts me asleep (seriously). i need to have the information presented to me in a logical way, like school. i have been told that i am a kinetic learner and have confirmed it by looking at my past and present learning capabilities. i am looking to be a swing trader on a full time basis as i am now 56 years old and spent too much of my life doing things that i shouldn't have done. now i am facing physical problems that make it harder and harder to go do mt job as a long time handyman.
do any of you have suggestions as to where i can get help with all this tech business, do you think i would be better off waiting to start the free trial or should i just jump in with my $6000? I started with $800, made regular deposits to my etrade account and have gained about $1500 (profit) in the last 8 months, i guess i know something or just very lucky. about 2 months ago i started trading about 5-15 trades a week with a fair amount of wins, prior to that i was buying and playing, also with some luck. now it's time to step it up, i know i have the smarts and the desire (need), i just need some help along the way, i'm sure i cam be successful. Any and all comments would be welcome.
That said, all help would be very deeply appreciated!
many, many thanks,
David
JLT,
Thanks for your feedback. It's a good question. I have a question for you, what did SBUX do today? It was down 2.62%. In the short term it looks to me like it is following the indexes pretty closely.
All the best,
Adam
Adam,
It's a good video, but contradicts your recent video on SBUX, for SBUX will most likely follow the trend in the Dow or the S&P. Which do you prefer?
Hi Adam,
Yes, your informed opinion on this does indeed help. So, thank you Adam for your analysis and for your response 🙂
Eve
Hi Adam,
WADR I don't think the 924 level is going to hold if there is continued selling on the S&P. When the 500 tanks the US$ goes up which inversely affects gold. On the topic of MACD the bears are also in control of the MACD right now too. We're only hovering a hair above the zero mark. Also, if you look at the last 2 peaks of the MACD histogram there is divergence suggesting lower prices are to come.
With the rally being extremely over done it makes me extremely pessimistic about the prospects of gold. Also the US$ has put in a higher low.
My 2 cents.
Cheers,
Dan
Eve,
There's no question about it the gold market has been very tricky this year. Today's pullback is in my opinion just a pullback in a choppy market. I would be more inclined to buy gold around the 930 level as opposed to selling gold at that level.
Providing the 924.35 level holds this week in the spot gold, I would be a buyer as opposed to a seller.
I hope this helps.
All the best,
Adam
Hi Adam,
A bit unrelated to this video but is related to several of your previous gold videos: I was just wondering with gold breaking down today by over $15.00, where would the support be for it? Can we expect it to break down to the 61% Fib retracement again before it goes back up? Or do you see it falling even below that level. Where do you see gold finding support after this fall before it turns upwards again?
Thank you Adam!
Eve
Hi Trikaal,
Any 2x etf with a volume over 500k will do. There are many and I suggest you trade the ones that track the major indexes because they are the easiest to trade.
If you are looking for settings you should find some that work for you. Linda Raschke uses some great short term macd settings and even talks about them in the markeclub.com mp3s Alan Farley uses great slow stochastic settings too. You can also lookup the double crossover method in investopedia.
1 more thing never short on big down days like today. It's too late and its the easiest way to get screwed when the bears cover.
Good luck,
Dan
Thanks Dan.
Could the market be run up by the big money on purpose? , only to take all those profits when they turn around short it . That is if you believe the markets are controlled by big money . What a great idea run up the market have all the media behind you ,get the average investor all excited again, then turn the market down and take everyones money for a second time...
Hi Trikal,
I don't use the triangle like the videos. I don't wait for a weekly to confirm the daily. I use a double crossover method of custom slow stochastic and macd settings to confirm the signal. The settings are purely for short term trading.
I only trade ETFs as well. I don't like wasting time looking for action in stocks. As for position size I trade usually $10000 of shares at a time.
I hope this helps.
Cheers,
Dan
Hi Dan,
I appreciate you sharing your usage of Market club. Thanks.
So if I understand you correctly, you do not even look at the Monthly TT. You just look at the daily and if its green you buy and sell when it goes red? And this decision is backed up by slow stock and MACD.
Interesting that you trade only ETFs. The problem I find with ETFs is there are number of them and many of them are thinly traded which makes them very vulnerable to whipsaws. Any way I will look into this more.
It will great if you can make some ETF suggestions but if you can't share this information, its ok, I understand.
Thanks Again,
Trikaal
thanks adam for you gut feelings.
$utrm $amne
Adam
What are your settings for the Moving Averages?
Al,
I normally I use three MA: 19 days, 49 days and 199 days. They are all available in MarketClub and you have the option of changing them at will.
Thanks,
Adam
Video will not play. All other videos always play.
Keith,
Thanks for your feedback. I think the problem may be on your end. First thing to do is update to the latest Adobe flash player, http://adobe.com. download the latest player and it should work fine.
Thanks
Adam
Adam,
While I'm at it, here's another couple from the Profunds: ULPIX and BMPIX.
If it does most of The Profunds, I'll probably become a member at the time of my birthday in about a month.
Marvin
Marvine,
Good news we have you covered on the ProFunds.
Happy pre-birthday to you.
Cheers
Adam
Marvin,
I am looking at both charts now. No problem to follow these two symbols on MarketClub.
Thanks
Adam
Adam,
I'm working on getting it to play. For some reason, I can play all the other videos, but not this one.
On another note, will your triangle software chart The Profunds,e.g., BLPIX or PMPIX?
UTRM, I think you can not afford not to use the triangles. With the triangles you can follow more markets and be more profitable (long or short). I've only been a member of marketclub for a few weeks and easily paid for my 3 month membership in only a couple trades.
BTW I am a swing trader and I don't care which way the market goes, up or down, because I can profit in all kinds of markets, indexes and commodities. In fact I love down markets because the money gets made quicker.
Reagards,
Dan
Hi Dan,
Can you share how you use the triangles. Looks like you use it for short term trades.
I also also using them for a few weeks now but not with much success. One of my problems has been perhaps I am buying very small number of shares and my overall capital is small. Just curious how much (just a ballpark or range) capital did you put in those 2 trades to recover the subscription cost.
Thanks in advance.
Trikaal
UTRM,
Thank you for your feedback.
There are two things going on right now in the market. There is the market, and then there's reality.
At the present time the market has chosen to be the market and has divorced itself from reality. If you look at the technicals you have to be long in this market. If you look at the fundamentals you saying what's going on with this market.
The old adage is the market looks six months ahead and anticipates good economic conditions or bad economic times.
If we look six months ahead we can see there's going to be problems in the economy with more foreclosures, more unemployment, and bank failures. This does look like things are going to get better in the immediate future.
My gut tells me the market should be going down but the technicals are saying otherwise at the moment. I would much prefer to be patient and wait until the technical indicators turn negative and then go a short.
I hope this addresses your question.
All the best,
Adam
good morning adam, i also think satyre didn't get you video, i caught what you were talking about and i understand fridays triangle hasn't been trigger yet, maybe monday, maybe not.
so to satyre, u just have to wait on the s & p to pull the trigger for the triangle to show.
by the way satyre, i know nothing about this triangle program, don't use it, never heard about it, until the pass few weeks, haven't clicked on it to see what it cost to use it, not planning to use it because i can't afford too, even it's free for 30 days.( on a tight budget ) wishing one day i could and also i'm new to trading..
so how funny is it satyre for all those reasons i don't use it, is all the reasons that someone like me should use it.
anywhay satyre it's free for 30 days try it and see for yourself before saying something that your predicting, unlike using recorded data..
sorry adam, didn't mean to go into what someone has writting here. my question to you is..
i have heard for weeks and weeks from the experts on tv, radio, internet that the market is going to take another dive and some experts say even worst than before, before it gets better.
now guess what i have been hearing for the past few weeks, yet u got it the market is fine and we're going up. where's the crash that these same people were saying? i haven't seen the my second chance to buy up all the 2 bac's and ge's dollar cheap stocks.
ok let me stop and get to my question to see if you could and WOULD take the risk in answering.
with all your computer experts, your knowledge, your years of experiance and you gut feeling, will the market take another dive like before 2010, will we see a 5 dollar bac or a 3 dollar ge again before the years in???
that is my question to you, i really really truely hope that you will answer it with a clearly yes or no answer and you may state all the disclaimers and what else you need to say before you answer, even if you just have to adress it to me..
thanks and good trading everyone
$utrm $amne
I like the fact that fundamentals (rise in new jobless claims) aren't discussed. It's the people who are glued to the media outlets that end up being failed traders. As you can tell form the MACD the interest on the histogram has been slowing consistently.
Good,
The market needs to take a breather so that the downsides are not so drastic. Also, it will bring oil down a tad with it.
Hi Adam,
Looking at Friday's bar when you were recording this video, SPX was near the low of the day. There was a large rally at the end of the day which probably removed the MACD crossover and histogram cross. It would be better to see what happened after the close as that would give a better indication of what is to come next week. I would like to see you record the videos after the market close and not intra-day since we are looking at the daily chart and not an intra-day chart. What we saw in the video may not reflect what it is. Thanks for putting up these videos. It is a learning experience on fibs and other technical indicators.
Skip,
That is a good observation. The SP500 did rally in the last half hour of trading, however the MACD line did in fact close lower.
If we take out Fridays lows early in the week it should make for an interesting week.
All the best,
Adam
Hi Adam,
Thanks for the video. This video just like the one on the CRB index tell us not to just look at specific stocks but look at the overall market. I wonder what are the other indices I should watch besides the CRB and SP500.
I also had a question. The MACD for SP500 on the weekly chart is still bullish and poised to make a bullish crossover on the monthly. How do you interpret this? MACD is a lagging indicator (?) but is the lag so wide for the daily,weekly and monthly.
Thanks,
Trikaal
Trikaal,
Thank you for your feedback.
You're right the MACD is a lagging indicator. The weekly and monthly indicators cover a much longer time frame's and should be viewed in that context.
As I answered earlier if the S&P 500 trades below the low seen on Friday then I think we will see further corrective action in this market. The MACD indicator was developed by a friend of mine called Gerald Appel and is an extremely useful technical tool for catching trends.
This coming week should tell the story.
All the best,
Adam
I could not get your video to play.
Marvin,
You may need to update your flash player on your end. All is well here as the video has already been watched by thousands of traders.
Adobe.com has the free flash player.
Thanks for your feedback.
Adam
The financial collapse is coming. I don't know exactly whern but it will be soon. The recent rise in the market has been solely driven by the recent government spending. This cannot and will not continue. Expect a very large correction. The fundamentals are not good.
Finally, someone who knows what he's talking about. I've been making a killing on this very notion for 18 months now.
I hope there is some selling because this sideways action is the easiest way to lose money. Hopefully we can short the S&P for some quick short term gains.
Thanks for the video Adam.
Thanks for putting this video up. Fridays' action felt suspect as a sell program hit early and this could be the warning. As always, enjoy your work.
Your triangle appears after the fact. When did you show the triangle at that 900 level? Did it display on the day you put it there?
For example, right now there is no triangle on your S&P video as of today showing that it is going down. I bet you will put a triangle after few weeks if it falls now and then you say triangle indicators were correct. What is the point?
No indicators can predict anything since it is calculating based on previous data. If it can predict like you claim, you can transfer everybody's money in the world into your account by trading based on triangle magic indicator. Stock market doesn't create any wealth but transferring money from one fool's account into another in the process.
Satyre,
Thank you for your comment.
In the stock market history repeats itself. As does traders reactions to market action. You are right there are no Trade Triangles giving a sell signal that was not the point of the video.
What I was pointing out was the MACD indicator flashed a negative signal that COULD not WOULD indicate lower prices for the SP500.
I strongly recommend that you watch and listen to the video again. I think you will come away with a different message.
All the best to you.
Adam
Satyre, it appears you do not understand trade triangles and their use. They appear when they are triggered and stay on the chart. No hanky panky, no fudging.
Apparently, you are looking for a guaranteed predictive system. There are none, and indicators based on previous data are always lagging, as you point out.
But over the many years I have been using MarketClub, it is the only tool I now use for trend tranding. I trade stocks, futures, options and currencies. For daytrading in minutes or hours, I use the usual indicators. For trend trading in days or weeks, I use no indicators, just the trade triangles and the Donchian Channel which Adam was gracious to add at my request. I like to see where the trend is within the channel.
In your nightly email, everything in your portfolio is analyzed by score and if on a trade triangle as they occur. Adam has an excellent training video which clearly illustrates the use of the triangles. I recommend it.