Andy Hall has forsaken his bull oil market position. In an investment letter dated July 3rd, he wrote, “Whereas it once seemed positions could be held with an eye to a longer-term secular appreciation, that is no longer the case…. In short, OPEC, the market and oil bulls have run out of runway.”
Source: Amanda Gordon/Bloomberg
Mr. Hall explained his reasoning this way:
“Hitherto, it had been our view that oil would trend higher as prices would need to rise to a level that would justify investment in more costly sources of supply than just the core areas of US shale. However, not only has the core shale oil resource grown significantly — above all in the prolific Permian Basin — but break-evens have dropped because of secular productivity gains outpacing cyclical cost increases, at least for now…. If the marginal cost of oil for the next 3 or 4 years is headed to the mid-$40 range, then OPEC’s attempts to push prices to $60 seem futile.” Continue reading ""OPEC, The Market and Oil Bulls Have Run Out of Runway" - Andy Hall"→
On Tuesday we witnessed the S&P 500 and the DOW make new all-time highs. What is the significance of this? If you've been following my work and reading our comments then you're probably familiar with the 52-Week New Highs on Friday Rules which go like this:
Rule #1: On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy and go home long for the weekend.
Rule #2: Exit the long position on the opening the following Tuesday.
Rule #3: If the market opens lower on Monday, exit this position immediately.
Since making their highs on Tuesday, the DOW and S&P 500 have been steadily moving lower and are in danger of closing lower for the week. Doing so would create a "negative engulfing line." A "negative engulfing line" or "bearish engulfing line," as it is some times called, is when the market price action engulfs the previous open and high period for the preceding week or day. If this turns out to be the case for the DOW and S&P 500 and this coming week they both close lower for the week, then the odds are pretty high that a top is more than likely in place. Continue reading "Were The New Market Highs A Bull Trap?"→
Well here we are in the month of December and things can get pretty tricky this month. For this reason, I wanted to produce a video that I thought would be helpful to you during this time.
In my new video I show you the exact points that we’re looking at for a major trend change in the S&P 500. I also point out the exact number that will show an exit point, but not a major trend change, in this same index.