54 thoughts on “ALERT: Daily Trade Triangle Exit Signal For Spot Gold

  1. i think it may well be a volatile This month , but anyway thank you for the informations contain herein - i think you did a fantastic Job here adam .

    All your informations are Solid Gold that withstand the tests of time .

  2. ps, Adam issued a daily trade triangle. keep the idea that it's a 'Daily' in perspective. the close probably contradicted the daily trade triangle. Gold is 1179.

    1. oops, daily trade triangle sell signal now null and void. Gold 1195.30

      enjoy the sidelines technical gurus.

  3. now gold climbs a wall of worry. watch silver. silver doesn't become seriously overbought until 19.75 to 20. until then, we trend higher. 1,235 Gold is our next target.

    at 1200 Gold / 18 Silver, the fundamentals change for a lot of producers, especially the juniors.

  4. The key to this is sticking to a quantifable strategy where there are defined entry and exit points. It is a fact most traders fail and lose money by becoming emotional traders, or basing the trades around opinions in a newpaper or internet article. If you keep to a disclipined approach and where everything is recorded and analysed, you will have a chance to learn and make money from a trade. The trade triangle is one strategy. Quite rightly AH's approach is trying to forecast the price action based on a history of previous price actions, and the trade triangles appear to have worked well in the past. If you also look at the MACD for the related gold charts - the HUI index and MACD for the USD index, this would also indicate that Gold is likely to take a breather in the short term. As a holder of some gold/silver stocks I have reduced my holding by about 30%, still keeping a core long term position, and looking for the next entry point. It could be that this entry point is higher than now, but at least I am confident I am following entry/exit points based on previous price actions

  5. i think it may well be a volatile coming week - not only have we got the events in Dubai (which has only just reared its head - dont expect the volatility we saw last thursday and friday to be the last of the matter - remember past similar events and learn from your experience) but we also have a lot of economic news due this week. I will be sitting out of the markets and waiting for events to give me an indication of where we are heading. Why risk getting in at the low and selling at the high (its impossible - go to the casino, the odds may be slightly worse but at least its fun). I will trade gold when the weeks trend is evident - this could be up or down but i would expect down. Long term is def a buy so if youve got big stops then ride the wave and look to make some bucks elsewhere. Remember - watch those margins !!

  6. Hello, If you look at a simple bit of analysis, take the high of the 23rd of each month to the low of the fifth working day later you will see a consistent 37 to 40 dollar drop range. This is true for July, September, October and November. Usually these moves have been followed by 3 days of up and down within a small range. - This will bring you to the 2nd / 3rd of the following month. Here new money enters the market the price jumps. This time when 1138 was hit, the bounce was allot higher. Perhaps because of the sharp decent in early morning trading on the 27th. With this being still overbought and Adam's key indicator to sell I will prefer to exit the market Sunday night / Monday morning.
    GL ALL.

    1. Good input. Thanks for sharing. Are you saying you think then - that the next time it jumps up is Jan 2/3? If so, how long does it usually stay up - until the 23rd of that month?

      Sorry if I didn't follow your point exactly. Thanks in advance for clarifying!


  7. I am sorry i dont know whether you received my comments or not and therefore i am repeating it one more time.

    the retracement of gold 38.2% is at 1131 roughly and friday market posted a low of 1130.1, do you think the retracement is over in a single day or it will touch retracements level again by going side ways or can travel upward nonstop. I am just looking for your opinion.

    The way Crude price touched $73 level on Friday and closed $75.94, do you think crude is headed to surpass its top, means sideways movement is over and it will start trending now.

    i am really very happy with your analysis which is very honest and gives a great highlight to actual situation.

    also E Mini S&P downward trend has already started after leaving a top or need to confirm close below 20 days simple moving average.

    I shall appreciate your reply and on receipt of which i will be more than happy to open an account with you. Please can you send me all benefits of opening an account with you, i would like to study and then open an account immediately.

    I salute you for your honest and indepth analysis, hard to find anywhere else.




    1. Andy,

      You are more than welcome to become a member of MarketClub. We are not a brokerage house nor do we manage money.

      Watch for videos and gold soon.

      All the best,

      1. Well, there are some very bright and clever traders adding to this thoughtful discussion on Gold. I began to build a position in Precious Metals shares in July; In October on the day we saw Gold trade to $1027 I backed up the truck and added to my existing positions. Needless to say, November was a profitable month, and I managed to sell about 90% of these longs in the area of $1160 Gold, while looking for a short term top near $1200. I think we got that top, and Gold may correct some more, maybe down to about $1075. Longer term the chart set up is targeting about $1300; the problem will be to launch the XAU through about 200, which may be formidable resistance. I would like to see this metal price upmove confirmed by the major miners. I welcome any input others may have to my comments.

  8. Thank you Adam for the alert. Both the monthly and weekly triangles are positive and the rating is a stong +85. Since I am as moderate gold bug, I am in for the longer haul and on gold (and gold alone), I do not have a stop. But the daily triangle alert is encouraging me to buy January ATM or NTM puts, as insurance. I want to sleep nights without worrying about POG falling off a cliff.

    I agree with David. I'm concerned there may be too many bulls crowded over on one side of the gold boat right now. I am mindful that the majority can't be winners.

  9. I agree, but have not done well on my sell stops. I have tried 2 percent to 5 percent and higher. Friday morning, after looking at the Asian and London spot prices for gold and silver, I sold off my GLD abd SLV at the market price, before the market opened. Even then, the sell was too low to get back in without losses. From now on I'm going to treat the GLD and SLV the same way I treat my physical gold and silver.
    This market moves too fast for me to get in and out.
    Hope you guys are having better luck.

  10. So many people here are going against the advice of the trade triangles. I thought one of the keys of being a good investor is to be disciplined.

  11. As the gold bull market marches on, we are likely going to see extreme volatility, with $100 dollar moves, up and down, in a day. We got a tast of that on Friday as gold sold off about $45, then rebounded to end the day down $15.

  12. I haven't sold either because I own shares of GLD, unleveraged, and use the weekly as my guide. But if I held a COMEX-ed size position I'd get out first thing Sunday night after reading the comments posted. I.E.:

    "It seems most of the information is pointing in one direction; metals are going up. Period."

    Period my .......

    Couple of jury twisters, oscillators overbought (of course) but generally no signs of divergence. MACD still leading higher. SAR got bumped out. If I were using daily as guide I would consider Friday's intraday rally as a blessing to get out. Way better exit price. And can get in at a new high just $20 higher. First alternative is to use Friday's LOW as a stop. Look out below.......

    My oil's hanging in by a thread as well.

    It's the oil that's hanging in by a thread.

  13. Large gains induce complacency. I ran 80K to 1million in the go go teck stock bull....gave it all back. Always concentrate on risk control. Always consider what can be lost, not what might be gained.Remember, Benard Baruch- took his 60% of the move. Was happy to exit 20% too soon. Died wealthy.

  14. for monday gold can retest 1181, if it crosses 1188 only the uptrend may resume otherwise downtrend may stay for a while, before resuming the last few lags of uptrend.

  15. Can Adam or somebody more knowlegeable comment on my question.
    I have bought HL at 6.27 week ago, since then it has varied as much as 5.80 to 6.79(during all these times all 3 triangles were up green), I was not near computer, but after market closed I noticed that stock closed at 6.32 after range of 6.00 to 6.60 volume less than average and daily signal turned red. Please comment how you being experienced and wearing(unfortunately) my shoes, how would you react to situation like this?
    Thank you in advance for your input and time
    GOD bless

    1. Hitesh,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      Two questions for you: 1) Do yo have a game plan for this position? (2) Where is your stop?

      If you have those two items in place you have nothing to worry about. If you don't then you are putting a great deal of stress on yourself.


      1. Adam,
        Thanks so much for your generous work and help! A little while back, you flashed a long on Oil. It seemed to go right up and then has been down. Sometimes it trades similar to gold, historically.

        Lately it has been down, but some think it may be basing and turning back up to shoot higher. Your video at the time was very bullish, but there has not been a big move up yet. Can you please update on your Oil thoughts, please?

        Since monthly is supposed to be for trends, it would be great to see weekly updates from you - for oil, dollar, gold, gas, S &P, GDX, which curreny seems best alternative to dollar (or stay in dollar, etc.

        You do such a good job of explaining, and I still can't seem to get the trade triangles to show up quite like you do.

        Thanks so much for your fabulous work!

        Best regards,

        1. Kent,

          I am still friendly towards crude oil however it has not yet flashed a price bu signal based on trade triangle technology.

          Thank you for your kind words.


    1. Marvin,

      We are trading on the weekly for trend and the daily for timing. Longer-term traders should be looking at the monthly for trend and the weekly for timing.

      All the best,

  16. Hi, I am not a member but I always listen to what Mr. Adam say it is so impotant and valuable . I do agree with him cause I think GLD will go as low as $106.00 and DXY will rise to $77.00 probably until next Friday Dec. the 4th and from there again the market will rally by mid Jan.2010 . Thank you.....

  17. The breaking news was Dubai's 60 billion dollar liability. The fear is Dubai may only be the first of a series of surprises. The reaction was buy the dollar. Stronger dollar equals weaker precious metal. But gold's trend (judging from the AROON 25, the ADX line, and the orderly and upward movement of the moving averages signals (to me anyway) that only a day trader with leveraged positions would need to reposition his portfolio. As it is, there was hardly much to react to at all- even to take profits.

  18. Attention gold bugs: Wait for spot gold to pullback to the 1070-80 area for a better entry point. That level use to be old resitance... Remember that pigs get SLAUGHTERED buying into a crowded trade!


  19. Adam,
    Thanks again for looking out for all of us. Your expertise is part of my daily ritual and alot of us 'little guys' owe you a debt of gratitude. I feel I`ll hold for now. Long term, of course we pretty much see the writing on the wall and I really hate getting whipsawed. It seems most of the information is pointing in one direction; metals are going up. Period. Thanks for the great videos and info.

  20. Well, I learned my lesson today as Yamana dropped like a stone. Note to self...Sometimes experts (and charts) are right!


  21. Take a look at both the dollar and gold on a daily chart. Over the last few weeks the dollar has had three spikes to the upside that closed the day at or near the bottom--very bearish, and you can see by the continuation of the downtrend in the dollar just how valid this indicator really is. Gold today traded down hard and then took back most of the losses by the end of the session--quite bullish.

  22. I added to my positions and added 2 new gold and silver stocks . Market club recommended sell gold at 1161 and gold closed at 1177 .Good or bad recommendation ? You figure it out!!!!!!!

  23. I'm a lazy trader. I don't panic because I trade small sums at a time. If held long enough while I remember to look, the purchase will do well or become worthless; lazy indeed. The equalizer is in the initial investigation.

  24. Gold is the only real money in the world....!

    AH to is doing a great job with providing many useful tools on INO.com.

    Free markets are the wisest entities in the world and shall always be respected as such.

    AH's signal today proves his care for quality service and I wish to thank him.

  25. I hold metal. The time to sell is when price will be ridiculous ( approx. 2000 USD up to 9000 USD depending on FED printing activity). Price 2000 - the top from 1980 inflation adjusted, 9000 USD - situation when currency is backed again by gold.
    Of course I do not need to cash gold and I can keep it for years, no leverage.

  26. Long gold is on an uptrend into at least January 2010. Buy on the dips and be patient. If you are worried, use a stop loss.

    1. As well, imo today was a chance to add a little to a story which I do not see changing in the longer term. To qualify, my positions are longer contracts January and March-not a day trader or looking for the quick hit. Dominos keep falling, and I would think this would continue to be bullish gold. Do you still see gold connected to the $ trade? I know Adam feels we have decoupled, but it does not feel like it to me.

      Opinions and comments are encouraged.

  27. Hi Sean,

    I'm with you. Mr. Hewison has said that if you're long on a market, and he has said that Gold should run until after Dec 25, then have the patience to hold. The caveat is what you stated. If it closes lower near the end of the day, then sell at least a portion. You just don't want to get whipsawed.

    Maybe Mr. Hewison will comment on this blog subject.

  28. If gold closes higher than the open, I would hold, If prices trade lower through the day, I would sell before the close. This makes sense to me, but am open to anyones comments on the validity of this tactic.

    1. I see that there are some very bright traders adding commentary on this subject. I initiated long positions in major miners in July. In October I bought the Gold dip down to $1027 and added to longs. November was profitable for me, but I sensed the herd needed some thinning. By the time we hit $1160 I had trimmed my longs by 90%, looking for a short term top around $1200. We may have see that top; if so, I am thinking that we may get a chance to re-enter at lower prices ($1075?), looking for a move up to about $1300. I think we need to see the XAU plow through the 200 level to really establish significant new highs in Gold and Silver.

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