The Euro makes a stand

After dipping just below the 1.20 level, the euro had a brief rally that pushed this currency back up to the 1.24/1.25 area. This corrective rally did not change the longer-term outlook for this market.

In this new short video (less than two minutes in length), you'll see our updated thinking on this currency.

Like all of our videos, there is no need to register and we encourage you to leave your thoughts below.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

18 thoughts on “The Euro makes a stand

  1. Well, it's certainly looking more like a retracement than a continuation to parity. It might ultimately go to parity years from now, but at some point you have to admit you missed a pretty decent rally. Anyone that shorted based on your original "once in a lifetime sure thing" lost their butt by now. Sorry, but your credibility with me is dwindling with a 1.20 to 1.32 rally and the Dow rally to 10,600 rather than 8500.

    1. Dave,

      Thank you for your feedback. You cannot expect to hang your hat on a statement that was made some time ago. The markets change and you must change with them. Having said that looked at our trade triangle technology which did in fact change with the euro and with the Dow.

      Nothing is perfect in life. In fact if you're looking for information that's always 100% correct in the marketplace you will not find it anywhere, this I guarantee you.

      There is no question that the markets have been very difficult and frustrating for many traders professional and home traders alike. Normally after a period like this the markets become very fluid and offer lots of opportunities.

      All the best,
      Adam

  2. Hi Adam,

    The video above was made in May as that is the date it shows.Is it possible for U to post a new one as the price just touched 1.2650 today 06.07.2010.Thks.

    Best rgds.,
    Kishore

  3. Not sure why my prior a comment didn't work, so excuse me if a duplicate posting occurs!)

    Adam,

    I am a new member of Market Club (joined on Friday), and I am loving the layout and simplicity of the website. I am using this long weekend to put together a new game plan using Market Club, and hopefully it will be more profitable than my prior strategies! I have watched a lot of your videos over the weekend, and have learned more in that time that reading books on technicals for years! Congratulations.

    I do have a Trade Triangle question that confuses me:

    If I am following the Trade Triangles on an Equity, I know that a green Monthly, and green Weekly will signal for me to be long the stock, but if a little time later the Weekly Triangle changes to red, but with Monthly is still as green, could I go short-term short? Some of the videos you mention to be in the sidelines/cash, but I saw some where you pointed to an equity trade that would have been short (while trend is green). If I should be in the sidelines, I could be waiting a long time (in cash) for a Weekly green triangle to trigger, and therefore out of the entire market. What are your thoughts? Maybe other members can post what they do?

    Thanks again!

    1. JasonK,

      Welcome and thank you for your kind words.

      I thought I would post the rules we use for filtering our trades using our Trade Triangle Technology. As a rule, I would stay with the program as it will payoff for you in the long term. Trading against the major trend is a low percentage approach and not one I would recommend.

      Here are the rules:
      How "Trade Triangles" work in stocks.
      The major "Trade Triangle" to watch in trading stocks is the monthly "Trade Triangle" as this triangle determines the trend. We use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for timing purposes. Let me give you an example, if the last monthly "Trade Triangle" is green this indicates that the major trend is up for that stock. You would then use the initial monthly "Trade Triangle" as an entry point and use the weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a green "Trade Triangle" kicked in. You would then use a weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. Providing that a monthly green "Trade Triangle" is in place the trend is positive for the stock. The reverse is true if a red monthly "Trade Triangle" shows that the trend is down. You would then use the weekly "Trade Triangle" for entering and exiting the market.

      How to use trade triangles in futures and Forex.
      In the futures and Forex markets we use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend and the daily "Trade Triangles" for timing. Let me give you an example of how that works. If a green weekly "Trade Triangle" is in place it indicates that the trend is positive for that market. Initial entry point would be on the weekly green "Trade Triangle" and then you would use a red daily "Trade Triangle" as a stop. For example if the trend was up on the weekly you would exit a position on a red daily triangle. This is not to go short but only to exit the position and wait for the trend to reestablish itself on the upside. In the event the trend that does not reestablish itself and reverses with a weekly red "Trade Triangle" you would go short on the weekly "Trade Triangle" and use the daily "Trade Triangle"for money management and reentry points.

      All the best ,

      Adam

  4. Could this rally be influenced by the stance taken by Europe to reduce debt at the G20 Meeting while we are intent on more debt?

  5. Hi everyone, I would like to get to eur/usd charts, but i get eurmr which
    is diff pip number from eur/usd can you help, this is fx currency.

    1. Ivan,

      Just use the symbol eurusd in the search box and it will come up. If you have any further problems you can give us a call at 800-538-7424 or email support@ino.com.

      All the best,
      Adam

  6. I had a similar question regarding the possibility this bounce might be leading to a 50% or so retracement.

    To ask it generically, how does one determine when a 38/50/62 retracement has started as opposed to just a minor correction in the trend ? Should the bounce exceed a certain % level first to give a probable indication ? Might be too complex to answer here, but maybe a mention in a future vid. I don't recall specific criteria mentioned in a prev vid. thanks.

    1. Dave,

      That is a great question.

      I think that reading charts and using Fibonacci retracements is a kin to a balance of art and science. You can use MarketClub charts to see when a top or a bottom has been put in and then measure the Fib retracement levels.

      Here are the rules for out Trade Triangle Technology.

      How "Trade Triangles" work in stocks.
      The major "Trade Triangle" to watch in trading stocks is the monthly "Trade Triangle" as this triangle determines the trend. We use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for timing purposes. Let me give you an example, if the last monthly "Trade Triangle" is green this indicates that the major trend is up for that stock. You would then use the initial monthly "Trade Triangle" as an entry point and use the weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a green "Trade Triangle" kicked in. You would then use a weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. Providing that a monthly green "Trade Triangle" is in place the trend is positive for the stock. The reverse is true if a red monthly "Trade Triangle" shows that the trend is down. You would then use the weekly "Trade Triangle" for entering and exiting the market.

      How to use trade triangles in futures and Forex.
      In the futures and Forex markets we use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for trend and the daily "Trade Triangles" for timing. Let me give you an example of how that works. If a green weekly "Trade Triangle" is in place it indicates that the trend is positive for that market. Initial entry point would be on the weekly green "Trade Triangle" and then you would use a red daily "Trade Triangle" as a stop. For example if the trend was up on the weekly you would exit a position on a red daily triangle. This is not to go short but only to exit the position and wait for the trend to reestablish itself on the upside. In the event the trend that does not reestablish itself and reverses with a weekly red "Trade Triangle" you would go short on the weekly "Trade Triangle" and use the daily "Trade Triangle"for money management and reentry points.

      All the best,

      Adam

  7. Dear Adam,

    Thks for yr informative blogs.

    Need to know reg how far do u see the Euro/usd climbing as it has quickly climbed to 1.2550 and is past the 50 days sma.Does it have any resistance till 1.2670 (import fibo drawn frm 1.3660 to 1.18)and is it being driven up by rumors of China going (continue) to buy the Euro as a reserve currency.

    As per yr previous blogs the eur/usd has broken a very imp level and should go to 1:1 but can a fundamental factor like China buying the Euro push it back up and halt thee fall?

    Pl. could U comment reg the same.Thks.

    Rgds.,
    Kishore
    Chile

    1. Kishore,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      Everything is possible in the markets, however I think the overall the longer-term trend for the Euro/USD is on the downside. The one thing I've learned to do over my years of trading is not to fight the tape. Today's market was very positive for the euro will have to see where it goes from this point.

      All the best,
      Adam

  8. THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENT ON EURO.FROM MY POINT OF VIEW,REGARDLESS THE FUNDAMENTALS,JUST FOCUS ON THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS,NO DOUBTS,IT IS A BOUNCE UP DURING A BEARISH MARKET,ANY CHANCE FOR LONG POSITION,FOR SURE,BUT YOU CAN NOT KEEP FOR A LONG TERM,BECAUSE,NO MATTERS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO US DOLLAR,THE EURO WILL TEST 1.24 AND 1.25 TO MAKE SURE IT TREND.VERY SIMPLE,ONCE 1.24 AND 1.25 ARE CONSIDERED TO BE WORTH TO BUY,THEY ARE NOT RESISTANCE ANY MORE.BE AWARE OF YOUR MARGIN AND PORTFOLIO.GOOD LUCK.THANKS

  9. HI ADAM,

    THKS FOR ALL YR INFORMATIVE VIDEOS.

    THE EUR/USD IS AGAIN FOR THE SECOND TIME TOUCHING 1.25.DOES IT STILL HAVE A LOT TO GO UP AS PER FIBO RETRACEMENT FROM 1.36 TO 1.18?

    WE HAVE A FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR WHICH IS CHINA MAY BUY THE EURO AS RESERVE(RUMORS) BUT SHOULD THIS FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR CHANGE THE STRONG TECHNICAL PLAY DOWNTREND?

    PL. CAN U GIVE YR OPHE INION.THHKS.

    RGDS.,
    KISHORE

    1. Kishore,

      Let's see if the rumor is true or not. It looks to me that this was a short covering rally in the euro.

      Next week should be interesting for this market.

      All the best,
      Adam

  10. Is there a bit of divergence on the RSI? (Incidentally, I cannot get my RSI to look exactly like yours. May I ask what period you use?)

    Thank you for these ideas Adam, and for your helpful videos

Comments are closed.