We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Energy Futures--- Energy futures in New York today are mixed with crude oil trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average bouncing off of 8 week lows earlier in the day but finishing near session highs at 91.82 up 30 cents with the next major support at $87 with the sequester over last weekend and major budget cuts for defense department traders are thinking that demand will be significantly less and that is the reason why you’ve seen a $9 drop in crude oil in just a matter of weeks while April heating oil which has been in an absolute free-for-all except for Tuesdays 600 point rally but down about 50 points today currently trading at 2.97 a gallon with major support at 3.90 which has been hit 3 times in the last 6 months and rallied significantly but with the winter coming towards an end heating oil demand might start to weaken. Unleaded gasoline for the April contract are still trading below its 20 day moving average but above its 100 day moving average which stands at 2.95 and has been the strongest commodity in the energy sector trading higher by 800 points today at 3.2050 a gallon which is surprising to me because the commodity market sold off again due to the fact that the U.S dollar continues to climb against the Euro currency and many of the other foreign currencies today. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I believe the energy markets are headed lower but I would be looking for a terrific buying opportunity as we had into the spring and summer months as I do think the U.S dollar rally will not continue and I do believe that commodity prices such as energies, metals, and grains will start another bull run to the upside just like they did last spring in my opinion. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Grain Futures--- Grain futures were mixed this afternoon in Chicago with corn in the December contract up $.04 currently trading at 5.46 a bushel still right near 7 month lows trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the United States Mid-West section has received a lot of snow with welcome moisture which is replenishing the dried topsoil as we enter spring planting and prices now have dropped about $.60 in the last couple of months also pushing wheat prices down to new 10 month lows at 6.89 in the March contract unchanged for the trading day but continuing its bearish momentum with new lows this week and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am extremely bearish the wheat market I do believe wheat is headed in the low $6 level and I do believe that December corn could head as low as 5.20 bushel where we were before we started rallying last year when the drought occurred with the USDA still showing tight supplies which could mean we need a bumper crop this year or we could go right back up to prices where we were last year. Soybeans for the July contract were down around $.7 cents in wild trading action with over a 33 cent trading range closing at 14.48 while the November contract which is considered new crop soybeans down about $.10 at 12.68 also lower on optimism about the moisture being received in the recent weeks. As I’ve stated in previous blogs I am extremely bearish the corn and an extremely bearish the wheat market and I am bullish the old crop soybeans, however the new crop soybeans will probably stay sideways to lower here in the next month or so but as we head into spring planting which I consider around mid-April I want to be long the grain market going into the summer months because I have a feeling he will have weather problems once again and I do believe the commodity markets in general will start to rally just like they did last June. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Precious Metals-- Precious metals prices today were slightly higher with gold reversing earlier losses once again which has been the trend lately to finish up around $1 an ounce at 1,575 in a wild trading day as the volatility in the precious metals has skyrocketed in the last couple weeks with a low price of 1,560 today when the unemployment report was released but then rallied sharply again with a high price of 1,583 with gold basically rallying $20 in just a matter of minutes but now slightly higher this afternoon still trading way below its 20 & 100 day moving average right near nine-month lows with major support at 1,550 in the April contract. Palladium futures in the June contract hit new contract highs again today up another 20 at 779 on the strength of the auto industry also pushing up platinum 5 dollars today to settle at 1,600 an ounce and in my opinion is a terrific buying opportunity after this last dramatic selloff. Silver futures also were higher this afternoon finishing up $.15 at 28.97 in the May contract and basically has the same chart pattern as gold with a possible spike bottom last Friday at $28 in the May contract trading in a volatile range today and in my opinion I have been bullish the precious metals sector but the tide may have turned with the U.S dollar completely reversing its trend to move higher ,but eventually I believe silver down at these levels could be an outstanding buy because I still see higher prices and inflation coming down the road just not here in the short term. Copper prices which have been weak recently down another 80 points at 3.51 a pound way below its 20 & 100 day moving average right near a 3 month low and if it breaks 3.45 a pound that will equal a 7 month low which is very surprisingly to me due to the fact that the S&P 500 is right at all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at all-time highs which generally tells you that markets around the world are doing well but the problem is China is trying slowdown the housing market which is putting a lid on copper prices at this time but in my opinion I do think copper prices will start to move higher down the road. I’m advising traders to look at the option market in gold and silver possibly using bull call spreads in the December contract allowing you to have plenty of time for the short term weakness to end. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures—I have stated in many previous blogs I am very, very bullish coffee prices down at these levels basically trading higher once again this Friday afternoon by 100 points currently at 144.10 a pound higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session still in a 8 week consolidation which is important if prices break out to the upside in the next couple of weeks trading slightly higher for the trading week still above the contract low which is at 137.65 and as long as those levels hold in my opinion I still remain bullish because the fundamentals are slowly starting to change with weather problems in Vietnam, Peru, and Colombian farmers refusing to sell the crop anticipating that higher prices will come. Coffee futures are now trading above their 20 day moving average which stands at 142.60 but still far below its 100 day moving average which now stands at 153.20 in my opinion I’m still bullish coffee and I’m sticking with my recommendation to buy coffee futures at these levels and risk a stop below the contract low therefore minimizing your risk in case you are wrong. For longer-term investors I think I also would be looking at bull spread spreads possibly in the December contract. TREND: MIXED –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Currency Futures--- The currency futures this afternoon in Chicago were lower across the board against the U.S dollar which is up another 80 points in the March contract currently trading 83.05 hitting a new 7 month high trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average and as I’ve stated in previous blogs the further you trade away from those 2 moving averages the stronger the trend and this trend right now in the short term is very strong pushing the British Pound right near another 2 ½ year low in the March contract trading at 1.4950 down another 92 points as investors are fleeing the foreign currencies which reminds me of what happened in 2008 during the financial crisis as the currencies plummeted against the U.S dollar. The Japanese Yen is hitting new 23 year lows at 10440 continuing its bearish trend and in my opinion is headed sharply lower from today’s levels. The Euro currency is down again breaking 1.30 today down another 135 points currently trading at 1.2972 continuing its bearish trend also pushing the Canadian dollar down another 5 points currently trading at 97.15 hitting another 8 month low with major support which happened last year and 95 – 96 and it looks to me that the currencies are headed lower at this point with the possibility of the U.S dollar trading at the 85 – 86 level but after that I believe this will be a tremendous sell in the U.S dollar because the United States and the Obama administration continue to print money and will for at least 4 more years but at this point the short term trend is definitely bullish the dollar and bearish all foreign currencies as now they are joining the party by using their printing press trying to lower their currency just like we been trying to do for the last 10 years. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Natural Gas-- Natural gas futures are up 5 points this afternoon in New York trading at 3.63 in the April contract still above its 20 day moving average and now above its 100 day moving averages which stood at 3.56 propelling buy stops now hitting a 5 week high continuing its bullish momentum with working gas in storage falling to 2,083 bcf which puts supply 14.8% above the 5 year average which is much less than was thought just a few weeks ago while many of the other commodities are continuing to head lower natural gas is headed higher and in my opinion a triple bottom has occurred at 3.20 and as I’ve written in many previous blogs I am just outright bullish the natural gas sector due to the fact that I do believe the United States government is going to mandate natural gas usage here in the next 3 to 5 years which could double or triple prices just on demand without factoring any weather premium and in my opinion I’m advising all investors who have a long-term horizon to be buying natural gas in the December contract of 2015 and holding because prices could skyrocket from these ridiculously low levels. Remember natural gas prices traded as high as 13 – 14 just in the year 2008 that’s how far we’ve come and with the green energy policies and the trend getting away from fossil fuels continuing I believe natural gas demand will soar in the next decade as traders will shake their heads wondering why they were not in natural gas at 3.50. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures-- Cotton futures in the May contract continue to make new highs today up another 40 points climbing as high as 88.78 before profit taking ensued settling at 86.82 still up 30 points right near session lows for the trading session after the USDA estimated the 2012/13 China crop at 35 million bales vs. 34 million in February with world ending stocks at 81.7 million vs. 81.9 last month & US cotton exports were increased to 12.75 million bales, up from 12.5 reported last month. The U.S ending stocks were reduced to 4.2 MB from the 4.5 MB in February and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I believe cotton prices are headed higher possibly breaking the 100 level here by spring or early summer all due to the fact of less acreage being planted with great chart structure continuing to grind higher and remembering the fact that in 2010 cotton prices traded as high as 175 which were all-time highs since the Civil War and I’m not saying that prices will retest those levels but prices in my opinion cotton is headed higher. Cotton futures for the May delivery are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average which is always a very solid trend indicator in my opinion hitting an 11 month high with the next resistance at 90 – 92 and I do believe they will head higher unless grain prices completely fall out of bed which could rise the acres in cotton planting and as I’ve also stated in previous blogs I am bullish the old crop soybeans which is the July contract which is up again today and I’m bullish the old crop cotton all due to major demand coming out of China. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures hit 5 week highs today up over 100 points for the trading week before selling off to finish lower by 4 points in the May contract today trading at 18.72 above their 20 day moving average and traded slightly above their 100 day moving average today at 19.03 before profit taking came in sending the market lower breaking out of a consolidation in the last 4 weeks and if you have been following me in recent months I consider a major consolidation at least 8 weeks long but this consolidation is only 4 weeks long which tells me it’s just basically a sideways channel with the contract low is at 17.67 which was hit on 2 – 15 of this year with great chart structure . The next major resistance in sugar which is also the 4 week high yesterday as large speculators placed buy stops above 18.58 which propelled prices higher and now I am advising traders to be long the sugar market placing a stop at contract lows of 17.67 risking about 1,200 per contract I do believe there is a possibility that a bottom might be in place here in the short term and with excellent chart structure you can take a shot at being short or long while minimizing your risk. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Livestock Futures-- Livestock futures in Chicago today are down once again continuing their bearish momentum with many of the other commodity markets with lean hogs for the April contract hitting a one year low yesterday before rallying and closing near session highs today at 81.90 up 5 points for the session and has come all the way from 90.00 just from last month with a nice rounding top now has dropped nearly 900 points as traders are scrambling to figure out where the low is and in my opinion the low is still quite lower from these levels possibly at 70 – 72 also pushing the April live cattle sharply lower down 100 points at 127.20 hitting new lows which is also a 10 month low with the next major support at 125 which was hit a 4 / 27/ 12 and as I’ve stated in previous blogs the livestock market is historically overpriced and could head lower. Feeder cattle prices for the April contract are currently trading at 141.30 a pound down 130 points today hitting new lows down for the 2nd consecutive day dropping about 1600 points since early January continuing their bearish momentum and still at ridiculously high historical price markets and if you’re looking to get short these markets make sure you place a stop above the 10 day high trying to minimize your risk or look at bear put spreads. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Phone # (800) 615-7649