December gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1697.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1762.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1762.90. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1798.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1714.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1697.70. Continue reading "Precious Metals Morning Commentary"
Category: General
Goldman Sachs' Ian Preston Surveys the Gold ETF vs Equity Battleground
The Gold Report: Your recent commodity price research shows a gold price of around $1,811/ounce (oz) for 2013. Could you talk with us about how some of the macroeconomic issues influence that forecast?
Ian Preston: When we look at gold, we don't have in mind a specific supply/demand balance going forward. It's easy enough to see the supply side. In trying to forecast a price for gold, we tend to run out a 4% per annum contango from the current gold price until we think U.S. interest rate policy will reverse and rates will start to climb. That stage just keeps on moving outas it has with Quantitative Easing (QE) 3.
"If accommodative fiscal policies continue globally, gold could go significantly higher."
We look at the gold price to forecast earnings, and over the next 6 to 12 months, we'd expect $1,650/oz at the lower end and, if it breaks through, $1,8501,900/oz at the upper end. If accommodative fiscal policies continue globally, it could go significantly higher. But bear in mind that as equity analysts we're trying to forecast earnings, and to do so we want to be as close as possible to where the gold price will be for the next three to six months, even if the range is quite broad. Continue reading "Goldman Sachs' Ian Preston Surveys the Gold ETF vs Equity Battleground"
Weekly Futures Recap w/Michael Seery
We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Grain Futures--- The grain market this week saw high volatility across the board especially on this Friday afternoon with many commodities selling off sharply today putting pressure on the soybeans in the January contract finishing down only 11 cents at 15.35 a bushel up around $.13 for the trading week right near the 20 day and 100 day moving averages which is at 15.51 a bushel and in my opinion if prices break those levels on heavy volume the lows might be in the soybean market. Corn futures for the December contract were one of the few commodities today that were actually higher trading at 7.61 a bushel right near a four week after last Thursday’s bullish report has propelled corn prices at the upper end of the trading range. That corn is far above their 20 and 100 day moving average which suggests to me in my opinion that prices are headed towards the $8 dollar level with wheat having a very solid week up $.18 and on this Friday afternoon closing higher by $.3 at 8.71 a bushel breaking its 20 day moving average which was at 8 .70 and well above its 100 day moving averages which looks to me that it is going to rally along with corn and the oat market. Wheat futures for the December contract are down about 7% from the high which was a July 23, 2012 at 9.53 a bushel which was during the summer drought. In my opinion I believe the soybeans are in a bottoming process after dropping over $2.50 from recent highs due to harvest pressure as well as a major slowdown in China sending many of the grain prices off of their summer highs with better than expected yields coming in putting a lid on prices at this point, however about 75% of the soybean crop is harvested which means most of the harvest pressure has finished. Traders are now focusing on the November 9th crop report and the weather in South America with the growing season underway receiving beneficial rains and normal temperatures which means the crop is off to a solid start which could be a record producing year in Brazil and in Argentina. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap w/Michael Seery"
Dow down 205 as weak earnings drag market lower
Poor corporate earnings reports pounded the stock market Friday in a sour end to an otherwise strong week of trading. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 200 points for its worst day in four months.
Disappointing results from three giants of the Dow _ Microsoft, General Electric and McDonald's _ were to blame. But the broader market fell, too, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index fared even worse in percentage terms.
The Dow sank 205.43 points, or 1.5 percent, to close at 13,343.51. The S&P lost 24.15, or 1.7 percent, to 1,433.19. The Nasdaq composite index, hammered by a second ugly day for Google, lost 67.25 points to 3,005.62, a 2.2 percent decline.
The big drops Friday left the Dow and S&P clinging to gains for the week. Continue reading "Dow down 205 as weak earnings drag market lower"
What Moves Biotech Stocks? Ed Arce Has Answers.
The Life Sciences Report: Your experience is very broad. Just four or five years ago, you were a big pharma analyst at a major investment bank, where you followed the largest drug makers in the world. From your perspective today, as an analyst following small-cap biotech and medtech, can you talk about the clinical assets that drive value in smaller companies?
Ed Arce: From a market perspective, the key value drivers largely remain the same. First, and by far most important, are the clinical data. The stronger the efficacy, the better. But meeting clinical endpoints needs to translate into a clinically meaningful benefit. An outright therapeutic cure is optimal, but is also quite rare. Also, the overall safety and tolerability profile of any new therapeutic must be commensurate with the severity of the disease, and comparable to the risk profiles of any existing pharmacotherapies. Risk/benefit is obviously a trade-off. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in attempting to balance the risk/benefit equation, has leaned a bit in one direction or the other over the years.
The second point, from a market perspective, is the size of the patient population and the degree to which that population has been, or is, treatment nave.
The third point is value driven by a long product life, in the form of a long-dated patent suite, as well as any regulatory exclusivity offered to the drug. Continue reading "What Moves Biotech Stocks? Ed Arce Has Answers."
