Traders Toolbox: Fibonacci - It's all about the numbers

Fibonacci Number Series: The work in mathematics by a thirteenth century Italian has had a profound impact on modern man and has yielded a useful technical analysis tool. Born Leonardo of Piza, he is better known in the trading community as Fibonacci. Fibonacci's best known work is Liber Abaci which is generally credited as having introduced the Arabic number system which we use today.

Fibonacci introduced a number sequence in Liber Abaci which is said to be a reflection of human nature. The series is as follows:1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 and on to infinity. The series is arrived at by adding each number to the previous. For example, 1 plus 1 equals 2; 2 plus 1 equals 3; 3 plus 2 equals 5; 5 plus 3 equals 8; 8 plus 5 equals 13; and so on.

I use the Fibonacci series in a number of ways, in terms of both time and price movement. I will briefly discuss some basic time movements.

Watch a free video on Fibonacci.

The 13-week pattern in hogs is the simplest application of finding market turns based on a Fibonacci number. Markets will often turn on a time span which is a Fibonacci count from a previous important event. For example, look at the monthly cattle chart to see several turns on or about 21 months from a previous high or low.

Time counts can be done on virtually any type of chart. The turns can be counted in terms of days, weeks, months or even years. I have found weekly counts to be the most practical and very effective.

Another powerful method is to look for areas where Fibonacci time counts from various previous lows and highs converge.

In analyzing price action, the simplest way to use Fibonacci numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144...) is on support and resistance levels or pivot levels. For example: 5.00 and 8.00 soy- beans, 5.50 (55) soybeans, 3.00 corn, 500 gold, 5.00 silver, 1.44 oats, 34.00 hogs, 55.00 cattle, and so on.

Lengths of moves in terms of price commonly are a Fibonacci number. The down move on the weekly crude oil chart was $22, which was followed by a $13 rally. Livestock commonly move in increments of $5, $8 or $13. Grains like to move in 8<;, 13<t! and 21d; swings. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills often move in Fibonac- ci increments in terms of both time and price.

The most common application of Fibonacci numbers is the use of ratios within the number series. Many people do not realize that the common retracement levels are derivatives of Fibonacci relationships. Fifty percent is 1 - 2, 66% is 2 - 3 and thereafter, any number in the series divided by the next results in 62 %. Also, starting with 3, any number divided by the second number following it will result in 38% (3 - 8, 5 - 13, etc.).

Crude Oil it's different this time ... or is it?

How many times have you heard that it's going to be different this time?

Do you remember the dot com bust? Well, that was supposed to be different and look what happened. Same with the housing bubble, that was supposed to be different and look how that's turning out. Both events created the illusion of madness that made everyone rich on paper for at least 20 seconds.

The fact is, it's always different "this time", that's what makes it different.

But it's different this time in crude oil, right?

Okay, I know, I have heard all the reasons why oil is up, we are running out of energy, India and China are buying, the turmoil in the Middle East, etc, etc. Let's face it the energy market is the market du jour.

But it's different this time in crude oil, right?

I have to say that it's always different and at the same time it is always the same, only the names of the players in the markets change. It's all speculation (ooh, dirty word) but the reality of the situation someone is always left holding the bag.

The irrefutable laws of the market never change:

Check out my new crude oil video after you have read the six steps.

Read on and understand why.

SIX STEPS and the IRREFUTABLE LAWS of the MARKET
What Every Investor and Trader needs to know to Succeed in the Markets.

Step 1: A move begins with the sponsors (smart traders) who have insider knowledge as it relates to a particular stock or market. This information will move a market up or down depending on the insiders' information. These buyers are smart, very smart, and recognize trading/investment opportunities very early in the markup cycle.

Step 2: Days, weeks, or sometimes months after a move has started, there is a brief mention in the electronic media (radio, cable, TV) or on one of the internet chat boards that a market has moved. The public hears for the first time and begins to get interested, but does not buy.

Step 3: A blurb of information appears in print media. The move also begins getting more exposure on blogs and internet message boards. The public starts paying a little more attention, and will buy a little bit.

Step 4: Wall Street and LaSalle Street brokers go into full hype mode and hawk the market to their customers. The public begins buying in greater volume.

Step 5: A full-blown front-page article appears about the particular stock or market in one of the major financial newspapers, magazines, or financial websites. This is often six months after the fact and after a market has shown its greatest appreciation. There is often heavy public buying, even a possible frenzy, as all media, brokers, and so-called "gurus" start to tout the market.

Step 6: As step 5 gets underway, the sponsors or smart traders begin to move out of the market and take their profits off the table.

The finale Step: The move ends, the market falls, and investors lose money.

Does any of this sound familiar to you? If it does then you know the key rules of engagement in the market. If none of this is familiar to you then learn to recognize these six step asap. Your financial life depends on it!!

Think about it.

Adam Hewison

President INO.com

The Dimensions of a Successful Trading Entity

In June I asked my friend Dean Whittingham from Traders Universe who wrote a GREAT post that got me, and our readers thinking. I asked Dean to see if he could write another piece that got us all thinking again...and I think the below article is exactly what we need!

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Many considerations go into creating and running a successful trading entity. We'll look at the most popular which get the most attention, right through to the most important, which usually get the least attention.

Here is the list:

1. Entry signals
2. Risk management
3. Exit signals

4. Reliability
5. Reward to Risk
6. Opportunity
7. Capital management

8. Objectives
9. Familiarity with Markets
10. Resources
11. Mindset
12. Style
13. Management

Most, and by most I mean probably close to 80-90% look at number 1 and that is it! That is a startling reality, but a reality nonetheless. But there is a reason this happens. Most new traders are unaware that such a large number of traders ultimately fail in this business, and more importantly, this fact is well known by the very people who market trading in this way.

But enough of that, let's look at some serious considerations you should make and the order in which you need to do it.

Objectives – Set a target, a goal, a reason. Without this, you can't create or find the right system for you. You won't know whether the system will work for you, or even if it is on track or not once you begin trading it.

Familiarity with the markets – Quite simply, markets move in similar patterns which is all good, but there are different costs, margins, hours of trade, laws etc associated with each market that need to be considered.

Resources – These are your physical and mental assets. Everything from your time, capital, computer, to your mental strengths forms your list of resources. Day traders need different resources to a long term trader, not only in hard assets but mentally too.

Mindset – This is part of your self-image. Your self-image influences your decision making process on a continual basis. It stands to reason a trader would only become successful if they were making the right decisions. You need to see yourself as a success first.

Style – This is something you'll need to work out way before you look at any system. Are you mechanical or discretionary, in other words, do you want a system to tell you what to do, or do you want to be analytical? Do you want to trade for growth or income (part of your objectives)? These sorts of styles all require different tools, and so it seems silly to purchase a system before you even know your preferred style.

Once you have these aspects thoroughly researched and sorted out, I can guarantee you that finding or creating the right system of entry and exit tools will become far easier and much more enjoyable too. You'll naturally be attracted to the type of market tools that suit you.

But even then, once you find the entry and exit tools that suit you, there is more work to do.

You need to back test and paper trade your entry and exit rules to determine the rest of the considerations mentioned above.

Reliability – How reliable is the system for producing winning trades compared to losing trades, and does this suit you? The latter part of this question is the most important part. The reliability of the system does not tell you its overall profitability. It tells you your ratio of winning trades to losing trades, and this is a psychological question. Do you need to be right more times than wrong? This is the simple question you need to answer.

Reward to Risk – What is the average profit per trade? This is your total net profits divided by your total number of trades (if your system has a net loss then it's no good - obviously). When you know the average profit per trade of your system over a decent sample, you can then determine the number of trades you need to make to reach your objectives.

Opportunity – Now that you know the number of trades you need to make over a time to reach your goals, you must determine whether or not your chosen markets will offer the opportunities you need. Will you need to trade in multiple markets, trade both long and short and so on?

Capital Management – If you do find that your chosen markets offer enough opportunities for you to reach your goals, you need to consider if your capital can handle it. Many systems will require multiple positions open at one time in order to reach goals in a specified time. This means your capital may be stretched, or may not even cope. The size of your positions in the market is a part of your capital management and is also determined by whether or not you have leverage and the margin required.

Risk Management – Risk is what you are willing to lose per trade. Your exit strategy aids in determining this factor, but it also needs to gel with you, because your risk per trade is a factor in your drawdown. The higher the risk, the higher the drawdowns and you need to know the maximum drawdown you're willing to tolerate.

Management – The final consideration we'll cover here is management. You are controlling an entity and so management of all key areas is important. If you log each trade, you can assess for human errors, bad habits, you can also assess costs associated with trading and whether or not they can be reduced. In fact management is the part of your trading that is always looking for ways to improve the running of the business.

If you look at the list above it can seem like a lot. If one was to think of what goes into creating the great business models like McDonald's, Starbucks and so on, then I don't think it even compares. But why should it be so daunting? Enjoy the process and it will be a lot easier than you think.

Happy Trading

Cheers,
Dean

A Traders Universe

Two new videos that make (logical) trading sense

What a week!

What volatility!

What should traders do?

Several months ago we sent you an email that correctly forecasted the up move in crude oil and indicated that it could potentially topple world equity markets.

We were right.

So what happens now ... is the move in crude over? Is the downward tailspin in equities over or is it just a pause before new lows?

A few days ago, I finished two new trading videos that take a fresh look at crude oil and gold. I believe that these videos offer an unbiased educational view of two markets that are front and center right now.

If you are concerned about what's going on in the world then you really need to watch these videos. There is no need to register, plus you will learn some valuable trading lessons.

Enjoy the videos.

Crude oil video

Gold video

Cheers,


Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

Down Markets and the Fear of Shorting

Today's guest blog post couldn't come at a better time!! I asked Thierry Martin OnlineTradersForum.com.

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Every time the market goes into a downtrend, I see many traders and
investors throw in the towel. They just can't keep their trading
skills working properly when the market goes into "reverse." This is
too bad, because these traders are losing out on trading opportunities
by getting out of the market when it is going down, or they trade
against the overall trend and lower their chances to make a profit.

One choice you have when you see a sustained downtrend, as we are
seeing currently, is to find a sector that is not following the
overall market. Even though most of the sectors or industries will
show the same down trend as the overall market there are always a
couple of sectors with rising trends. So if you really can't stomach
the idea of betting on a stock to go lower in value, then just find
the sector that is bucking the trend, scan for the best stocks in that
sector, do your research, whether it is fundamental, technical or
both, and trade in that area only. You won't have as big a palette to
choose stocks from, but at least you will be trading stocks that are
moving in the right direction if you insist on going long.

Another way to profit in a downtrend is to stop caring which way the
market is moving and make money by "shorting" stocks. For some reason,
many traders never get their minds around the concept of shorting and
so just stay away from it. If you are one of the traders who don't
understand shorting, here is a new way to look at it: When you short,
you are still buying low and selling high as you do when you are going
long. When you short a stock you are doing the selling high first, and
the buying low second. In other words, you are betting that the stock
is going down, so you sell it at the higher price first, then when it
(hopefully) drops in price, you buy it back to complete the trade. How
can you sell a stock before you buy it? Well, your broker will let you
borrow somebody else's stock to sell, with an obligation on your part
to replace it at whatever price it may cost you in the future to buy
it back. If you get to replace it at a lower price than you sold it
for, you get to keep the profits, and of course if you replace it a
higher price you lost on the trade.

So once you understand how shorting works, the only other skill you
need to develop is a way to overcome the psychological block you may
feel about betting on the negative. This is less of a problem with
Forex trading, because trades are always placed using pairs so when
one currency is going down the other one is going up, but with stocks
a lot of traders feel bad betting on a stock to fall. It is important
to overcome this resistance to betting on the negative because there
are huge profits to make by shorting stocks while the overall market
is collapsing.

A clever way to avoid the fear of shorting is to buy "puts" on stocks.
By buying an option to sell a stock at a future date, you get to bet
on the stock price dropping. When the option rises in value as the
stock drops in value, you can sell it just as you would sell a stock
that goes up in value. Since the leverage in options is quite
substantial, the profits you can make if the stock drops in value are
much higher than they are when you are just shorting. And you get to
make money by watching the instument you bought rise in value, instead
of hoping what you bought goes down in value as you do when you short
a stock outright.

Thierry Martin operates the popular stock trading forum
OnlineTradersForum.com & the new forex trading forum ForexSuperForum.com