3 Meme Stocks to Avoid

Meme stocks witness unusual rallies solely based on retail investors’ interest in them. Retail investors gather on social media platforms such as Reddit, Stocktwits, Twitter, and Facebook and bet on fundamentally weak stocks to trigger a short squeeze. As the skyrocketing rallies in these stocks have little to do with the fundamentals of the companies, they fail to sustain the high price levels they reach.

The meme stock mania, born during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, has recently returned after a pause for a few months, as evident from unusual rallies of certain fundamentally weak stocks. Since the surge in meme stocks is usually disconnected from the companies’ fundamentals, investors should shun them amid an uncertain market outlook.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 8.3% year-over-year. And the rampant inflation enhances the chances of the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance, pushing an already weakening economy into a recession. Thus, the stock market is expected to remain under pressure in the foreseeable future. This is a good enough reason to avoid the risk associated with meme stocks.

Hence, fundamentally weak meme stocks Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) are likely best avoided now.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)

HOOD operates a financial services platform in the United States. The company’s platform enables users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold, options, and cryptocurrencies. In addition, it provides learning and education solutions, including Snacks for business news stories, News Feeds that give access to free premium news from different sites, and first trade recommendations.

In August, HOOD announced its second round of layoffs this year, slashing 23% of its headcount by letting go of 800 employees, with marketing, operations, and product management functions of the firm being the most impacted. The company blamed the worsening of the economy, including inflation and the crypto market crash, which had reduced customer trading activity and assets under custody.

Financial services companies are also struggling with a shrinking active user base and increasing regulatory pressure. The monthly active users (MAU) declined 1.9% million sequentially to 14 million for June 2022, as consumers navigate an environment marked by high-interest rates and surging inflation.

For the fiscal 2022 second quarter ended June 30, 2022, HOOD’s revenues decreased 43.7% year-over-year to $318 million. Its operating expenses increased 21.8% from the year-ago value to $610 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA was negative $80 million, compared to $90 million in the prior-year period.

In addition, the company’s net loss and loss per share attributable to common stockholders amounted to $295 million and $0.34, respectively.

The consensus revenue estimate of $353.60 million for the fiscal year 2022 (ending December 2022) represents a 24.7% decline from the prior-year period. The company’s loss per share is expected to come in at $1.14 for the current year. Furthermore, the company has missed the consensus revenue estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

HOOD’s shares have slumped 21.4% over the past six months and 44.4% year-to-date to close the trading session at $10.26. Continue reading "3 Meme Stocks to Avoid"

The Market Says AMC Is Worthless - I Disagree

The market has rendered AMC Entertainment (AMC) a worthless company. The stock has nosedived from a 52-week high of $17 to $6.50 per share, resulting in a 62% reduction in market capitalization. Even worse, AMC was $33 per share in 2017 resulting in a multi-year meltdown of 80%. The catastrophic stock collapse has occurred in the backdrop of record numbers at the domestic and worldwide box office. There’s a paradoxical disconnect between the record multi-year box office stretch and AMC’s stock price.

AMC recently posted a strong quarter and has diversified its revenue stream by rolling out its own loyalty program that now has over 900,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model to smooth out box office revenue fluctuations. This will allow durable and more predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC recently posted a record third-quarter attendance in the U.S. and international markets along with strong Q3 numbers. At current levels, the stock sports a hefty dividend yield of ~11% due to the decimated stock price.

Streaming threats from the likes of Netflix (NFLX), excessive debt load, bleak 2020 movie slate while being one of the most heavily shorted stocks (~60% of the float being sold short) has decimated the shares of AMC. I feel that AMC has significant upside considering its depressed valuation, improving financials, upcoming deleveraging, and creative initiatives to drive revenue growth.

Record Q3 2019 Numbers

First, AMC has been firing on all segments of its business on improving fundamentals across the entire enterprise over the previous quarter. For Q3 2019, AMC beat on the top line revenue with $1.32 billion, beating estimates by $10 million and missing on the bottom line with -$0.53 EPS, missing by $0.10 per share. Revenue grew by 7.8% and a record third-quarter attendance in each of its U.S. and international markets. Continue reading "The Market Says AMC Is Worthless - I Disagree"

AMC - Silver Lining of Movie Pass' Collapse

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) has had a difficult time breaking out of its stock slump, falling ~50% from its 52-week high of ~$20 per share. At these levels, the stock sports a hefty dividend yield of ~7.5% with a healthy balance sheet and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. AMC is pouncing on Movie Pass’ collapse and rolled out its own loyalty program that has exceeded the company’s growth expectations. AMC’s rapidly growing loyalty program now has over 900,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model to smooth out box office revenue fluctuations. This will allow durable and predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC is re-engaging the consumer via digital, mobile and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion augmented by a healthy share buyback program. The stock looks very attractive considering its depressed valuation, solid Q2 earnings and company initiatives to drive the consumer experience. The long-term growth narrative remains intact while revenue continues to grow at a healthy clip with a strong movie slate to round out 2019, notably Joker, Terminator: Dark Fate, Frozen 2, Jumanji: The Next Level and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Movie Pass’ Collapse and AMC’s A-List Subscriptions

Movie Pass is now history; however, the concept that the company brought to the market was the silver lining for AMC. AMC saw the overwhelming adoption by consumers and was forced to evolve by rolling out its own loyalty program via its A-List subscribers. AMC’s loyalty program now has over 850,000 subscribers which is expected to generate more than $150 million of annual recurring revenue. This will provide further penetration on the revenue front in excess of $300 million when factoring in food and beverage purchases and full-fare tickets purchased by bring-along guests such as family and friends. The loyalty program provides an opportunity to shift a segment of its business mix to a subscription-based model, providing durable and predictable revenue streams, mitigating box office fluctuations and driving long-term customer loyalty. Under this ticket subscription program, members can attend up to three movies per week in every available showtime and format. These membership numbers far exceed the company’s goal of 500,000 by mid-June 2019. Continue reading "AMC - Silver Lining of Movie Pass' Collapse"

AMC/Avengers: Endgame Propelling Box Office Numbers

Avengers: Endgame has shattered virtually every box office record with the elusive worldwide top grosser, Avatar in its sights. Avengers: Endgame and its unheard of box office numbers came on the heels of Captain Marvel which initially pumped life back into the domestic box office, delivering an epic $153 million opening weekend debut, while hauling in $455 million worldwide. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) stands to benefit significantly across its business segments due to the popularity of the Marvel franchise and a robust slate of movies for the remainder of 2019. AMC will likely have a nice catalyst as the slate of 2019 movies roll out, and the box office numbers strengthen over the next nine months. To smooth out these box office revenue fluctuations, AMC has a rapidly growing loyalty program with over 800,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model. This will allow durable and predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC offers a great dividend yield of over 5% and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. The company is reengaging the consumer via digital, mobile, and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion augmented by a healthy share buyback program. The stock looks very attractive, considering its depressed valuation, solid Q1 earnings, and company initiatives to drive the consumer experience. The long term growth narrative remains intact while revenue continues to grow at a healthy clip with a healthy 9-month movie slate ahead for the remainder of 2019.

Impressive Back-to-Back Quarterly Numbers

AMC has been firing on all segments of its business on improving fundamentals across the entire enterprise over the previous two quarters. For Q4 2018, AMC beat on both the top and bottom line with EPS beating by $0.22 and revenue beating by $10 million. Q4 attendance in the U.S. set a record for the fourth quarter and coupled with the quarterly numbers; the stock popped 10%. Q1 2019, historically its weakest quarter was going against a very tough comparable year-ago quarter that included Black Panther. Considering this tough year-over-year comparable, attendance per screen declined 10.1%, and total attendance was down 12.2% year-over-year. However, food and beverage per attendee came in at a record for Q1. Taken together, revenue was down 13% at $1.2 billion however this beat consensus estimates by $10 million.

Looking ahead, AMC expects better traffic. "We have high expectations for 2019, due to an extraordinary slate of movies coming, the timing of releases within the film slate suggests that it will be a back-end loaded year," says CEO Adam Aron.

“Even with the anticipated slow start to the year, we have been and continue to be quite bullish about the full year prospects for AMC. Also, the first quarter of 2019 faced a tough year-over-year comparison, as Black Panther last year made the first quarter of 2018, the second highest grossing first quarter of all time. As we thought it was likely for our U.S. theatres, in our largest market by far, the U.S. industry box office declined a healthy 16.2% this quarter. Even so, we are comforted that AMC continued to outperform the U.S. industry box office, notably with domestic attendance per screen declining only 10.1% in the first quarter of 2019. Additionally, our U.S. food and beverage capture of $5.23 per patron set a new first-quarter record for our company. This all is largely attributable to the power of the AMC platform: stemming from experiential initiatives and enhancements at our theatres; a frictionless use of technology to communicate, engage and sell to our guests; combined with the soaring popularity of our AMC Stubs loyalty program and our AMC Stubs A-List subscription program.”

“Accordingly, we continue to be excited about the remainder of 2019, which we believe might be the highest grossing 9-month period in cinema history. We are optimistic that the full year 2019 box office will be at least as strong as 2018, and potentially could be the first year ever that the domestic box office breaks $12 billion.”
Adam Aron, CEO, and President of AMC

It’s noteworthy to point out that the full year of 2018, the U.S. box office was up 6.9% to $11.9 billion, marking the highest grossing year ever recorded with February, April, June, and October setting all-time box office monthly records. Given the slate of movies over the next 9-month period, AMC thinks it’s entirely possible to eclipse the full year 2018 numbers.

2019 Box Office Comes Alive

Disney (DIS) has finally released its first highly anticipated film of 2019 with Captain Marvel (the first female lead for a Marvel film). The film has performed exceptionally well, delivering an opening weekend box office gross of $457 million worldwide and $153 million domestically. The first two months of the year for the domestic box office has been a struggle relative to 2018. Captain Marvel brought in the third highest March opening of all-time and placed the film on par with past blockbusters such as The Dark Knight, The Hunger Games and Rouge One. On the heels of Captain Marvel was, of course, the elephant in the room, Avengers: Endgame which shattered nearly every record at the box office and aiming to take out Avatar as the highest grossing movie of all-time (Figure 1). Avengers: Endgame has generated $780 million at the domestic box office and $2.62 billion worldwide. On the domestic front, the film stands as the second highest grossing film behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $936.6 million. On the international front, the film currently stands in a close second behind Avatar with $2.788 billion. Disney alone has Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars Episode 9 in its slate of films that will bode well for the box office on the domestic front as these films stand to rack in billions in box office receipts.

Box Office
Figure 1 – Avengers: Endgame shattered nearly every box office record domestically and internationally

Loyalty Game-Changer

AMC’s loyalty program now has over 800,000 subscribers, which is expected to generate more than $150 million of annual recurring revenue. This will provide further penetration on the revenue front in excess of $300 million when factoring in food and beverage purchases and full fare tickets purchased by bring-along guests such as family and friends. The loyalty program provides an opportunity to shift a segment of its business mix to a subscription-based model, providing durable and predictable revenue streams, mitigating box office fluctuations, and driving long-term customer loyalty. Under this ticket subscription program, members can attend up to three movies per week in every available showtime and format. These membership numbers far exceed the company’s goal of 500,000 by mid-June 2019.

Due in large part to the loyalty program, B. Riley FBR upgraded shares of AMC to a buy. Summer is coming and "The impressive advance ticket sales for Avengers: Endgame signals the start of the spring/summer period and we are increasingly optimistic around the potential contribution of Stubs A-List," analyst Eric Wold says. The company will keep maximizing the attractiveness of the subscription plan "as well as the efficiency/profitability of the plan to the company." The firm raised its price target to $20 from $18.

Conclusion

Avengers: Endgame provided a much-needed jolt to start off the remaining 9-month period to close out 2019. AMC is optimistic that the strong slate of movies coming out over the next nine months may propel the year-end box office numbers to eclipse the record numbers seen in 2018. AMC is sitting on a host of positive tailwinds despite the slow start to the 2019 box office numbers domestically. A large slate of movies is just now beginning to be released with Captain Marvel and Avengers: Endgame. AMC is reengaging the consumer via digital, mobile, and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion. The loyalty program now has over 800,000 members and provides an opportunity to shift a segment of its business mix to a subscription-based model, providing durable and predictable revenue streams, mitigating box office fluctuations and driving long-term customer loyalty. The stock is a compelling buy with a dividend yield of over 5% and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. The stock looks very attractive considering its depressed valuation, industry strength forecasted through 2019 coupled with a slew of company initiatives to drive the consumer experience.

Check out my previous article on AMC here.

Noah Kiedrowski
INO.com Contributor

Disclosure: The author does not hold shares in any of the mentioned stocks or ETFs. However, he may engage in options trading in any of the underlying securities. The author has no business relationship with any companies mentioned in this article. He is not a professional financial advisor or tax professional. This article reflects his own opinions. This article is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or ETF mentioned. Kiedrowski is an individual investor who analyzes investment strategies and disseminates analyses. Kiedrowski encourages all investors to conduct their own research and due diligence prior to investing. Please feel free to comment and provide feedback, the author values all responses. The author is the founder of www.stockoptionsdad.com where options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will. Where high probability options trading for consistent income and risk mitigation thrives in both bull and bear markets. For more engaging, short duration options based content, visit stockoptionsdad’s YouTube channel.

AMC - 10% Post Earnings Pop And Captain Marvel Catalyst

Captain Marvel has pumped life back into the domestic box office, delivering an epic $153 million opening weekend debut, while hauling in $455 million worldwide. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) has been struggling as of late on the heels of a record-breaking year at the box office in 2018 in conjunction with the disastrous stock market in Q4 of 2018. Despite a robust slate of movies for 2019, the year has been off to a sluggish start at the box office. AMC will likely have a nice catalyst as the slate of 2019 movies roll out, and the box office numbers strengthen. To smooth out these box office revenue fluctuations, AMC has a rapidly growing loyalty program with over 700,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model. This will allow durable and predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC offers a great dividend yield of over 5% and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. The company is reengaging the consumer via digital, mobile and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion augmented by a healthy share buyback program. The stock looks very attractive considering its depressed valuation, solid Q4 earnings that drove the stock higher and company initiatives to drive the consumer experience. The long term growth narrative remains intact while revenue continues to grow at a healthy clip.

2019 Box Office Finally Jolted

Disney (DIS) has finally released its first highly anticipated film of 2019 with Captain Marvel (the first female lead for a Marvel film). The film has performed exceptionally well, delivering an opening weekend box office gross of $457 million worldwide and $153 million domestically (Figure 1). The first two months of the year for the domestic box office has been a struggle relative to 2018. Captain Marvel brought in the third highest March opening of all-time and places the film on par with past blockbusters such as The Dark Knight, The Hunger Games and Rouge One. Dumbo, Avengers 4, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars Episode 9 is Disney’s slate of films that will bode well for the box office on the domestic front as these films stand to rack in billions in box office receipts. It’s noteworthy to point out that Disney is poised to defend its box office dominance again in 2019 for the fourth consecutive year. Continue reading "AMC - 10% Post Earnings Pop And Captain Marvel Catalyst"