A lot of investors seem very interested in bottom-fishing in the oil and energy realm these days. Perhaps that fact by itself ought to give everyone a little pause. It certainly does me!
The attraction, of course, is that oil's big crash from its June 2014 peak has made for a lot of "lower prices." Obviously, we all like to "buy low," when possible. Plus, almost everyone agrees oil isn't going away anytime soon. I don't dispute any of that.
On the contrary, as I've cited before (see my January 22nd blog, for example), the oil industry must find a bunch of new oil each year – about 5% of its current productive reserves – just to keep up with demand. About 4% of the 5% increase is required merely to replace depletion. The other 1% is to meet demand growth. Another way of stating the same thing is that by 2020, the industry will need to find about 30 million bbl/day of new oil supplies (compared to today's production of about 93 million barrels per day).
Furthermore, to reiterate a few more key points from that Jan. 21st blog, emerging countries are poised to continue increasing their demand for oil and energy as they expand the world's "2nd great industrial revolution." This is not a small deal or a short-term flash in the pan, as emerging countries are home to about 6 billion of the world's 7 billion people. In addition, the world's population is set to increase by 2 billion by 2040, and much of the increase will occur in emerging countries. Continue reading "What’s the Best ETF for Playing an Oil Price Rebound?"