Would you take a $100 bet that gas prices exceed $4 again in 2015?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

If only one could know – in advance – when oil prices would bottom… right?

Well, on Fox Business Network’s Varney & Co. Wednesday morning, a well-known expert informed us he expects gas prices to exceed $4 per gallon again by the end of the year. That’s right; in 2015!!!

“Care to put your money where your mouth is on that?” the show’s host, Stuart Varney asked, in essence (I’m paraphrasing).

Would you take the bet? The guest, former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister did! Varney, of course, eagerly and confidently took the other side.

The $100 bet

Here’s a link to the video, if you’d like to watch these 2 aspiring futurists making a $100 bet. Oh, and you’ll be able to hear Hofmeister’s logic as well (summarized later in this article for your convenience).

Mr. Hofmeister must feel pretty secure in the deal he reached with Mr. Varney, since Hofmeister appeared on CNBC the day prior, predicting (sans bet) $5/gallon gas by 2020, saying the world will need 100 barrels of oil by that time, and that “we don’t know how to get there yet.” Continue reading "Would you take a $100 bet that gas prices exceed $4 again in 2015?"

If the oil supercycle is dead, do you believe in resurrection? Or reincarnation?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

As INO’s Energies contributor, how could I ignore Saudi Prince Alwaleed’s provocative statement that oil will “never” hit $100 “anymore”? In his interview with Maria Bartiromo for an article in Monday’s USA Today, Prince Alwaleed aptly summarized key reasons for today’s low oil prices, but (importantly) he didn’t give offer any evidence that oil would “never” again reach triple digits.

Still, many are decrying the “end of the oil supercycle.” Perhaps the supercycle is dead; or perhaps not. Either way, the world still needs energy from someplace, right? And lots of it! Which path, then, does the future hold? A resurrection of the oil supercycle? Or a reincarnation of a new energy supercycle based on resources other than oil? (Or “all of the above”?).

One prominent money management firm I’ve followed for most of my investment career, WHV Investments in San Francisco, was the first to introduce me to the term “supercycle” – referring to the coming oil- and steel-intensive “industrial revolution” that kicked into high gear in emerging countries in the early 2000s. By way of background, WHV is no “closet indexer.” Its managed portfolios, rather, reflect the firm’s conviction in top-down macroeconomic themes and trends identified by its team of analysts and managers. Continue reading "If the oil supercycle is dead, do you believe in resurrection? Or reincarnation?"