Has crude oil bottomed out? That's the question on investors minds today as this market has moved up close to 10% in just the past few days. I have been warning of a rally based on the positive divergences I saw on the daily charts and the fact that the end of January marked the seventh month in a row that crude oil had closed lower.
Whether this is a dead cat bounce or a reversal of major proportions in the oil patch sector remains to be seen. Certainly, the market is getting close to making some major technical reversal signals and should they kick in I will, of course, follow them. What often happens with prolonged market trends whether they are on the upside or downside they tend to lull traders and investors to sleep who are expecting to see more of the same.
In today's video, I'll be looking at crude oil (CL.H15.E) and sharing with you the exact point where crude will reverse its downward trend and start a new bull trend. Whether this will be a dead cat bounce, meaning just a short covering rally or a true reversal to the upside remains to be seen. I'll be examining both scenarios in today. Continue reading "All Eyes On Crude Oil"→
The big news today is the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The king was hospitalized with pneumonia-like symptoms in late December and died early Friday at the age of 90. It was understood that Crown Prince Salman, King Abdullah's half brother, was the hand-picked successor and has moved quickly to established himself as the new king.
The death of King Abdullah is a game changer in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, which holds 46% of the world's oil reserves. Saudi Arabia is a major ally of the US, how that changes now is anyone's guess.
Picking bottoms is not something one should do if you're going to be a successful trader. But looking at market that may be forming a bottom is a good exercise, and one that you should be doing on a regular basis.
I had done this before gold reversed to the upside traded over $1300 an ounce. Maybe it's time to look at crude oil and see if it's beginning to set itself up for a move to the upside.
Technically, the Trade Triangles remain negative on crude oil, so there is no reversal showing up with those technical tools.
The story is a little bit different with the RSI indicator. This particular indicator is showing that there is a big positive divergence on the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE), and it is one that spans months.
As INO’s Energies contributor, how could I ignore Saudi Prince Alwaleed’s provocative statement that oil will “never” hit $100 “anymore”? In his interview with Maria Bartiromo for an article in Monday’s USA Today, Prince Alwaleed aptly summarized key reasons for today’s low oil prices, but (importantly) he didn’t give offer any evidence that oil would “never” again reach triple digits.
Still, many are decrying the “end of the oil supercycle.” Perhaps the supercycle is dead; or perhaps not. Either way, the world still needs energy from someplace, right? And lots of it! Which path, then, does the future hold? A resurrection of the oil supercycle? Or a reincarnation of a new energy supercycle based on resources other than oil? (Or “all of the above”?).
One prominent money management firm I’ve followed for most of my investment career, WHV Investments in San Francisco, was the first to introduce me to the term “supercycle” – referring to the coming oil- and steel-intensive “industrial revolution” that kicked into high gear in emerging countries in the early 2000s. By way of background, WHV is no “closet indexer.” Its managed portfolios, rather, reflect the firm’s conviction in top-down macroeconomic themes and trends identified by its team of analysts and managers. Continue reading "If the oil supercycle is dead, do you believe in resurrection? Or reincarnation?"→
There's a war going on right now and I don't mean overseas, I mean right here in the markets. Last week was a perfect example as the intraday swings of the S&P500 clocked in at a staggering 6.5%. Market volatility often is a precursor of things to come, and the irony of all this action was that the market closed with a loss of -0.65% for the week.
The net weekly change for the DOW was -0.53% and there was an even smaller loss of -0.42% for the NASDAQ. All three indices formed an important Japanese candlestick pattern, a weekly doji candle. Why is this important? A doji candlestick often signals indecision in the market. When the doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend.
What To Watch For This Week
A lower weekly close would indicate to me that the buyers are beginning lose control of this aging bull market. Here is the "line in the sand" for each of the indices that I am watching. Once below this line, watch for heavy liquidation to come in across the board.