Restaurant Stocks: "David vs Goliath"

It’s been a rough year thus far for the restaurant industry, with a pullback in traffic, higher costs due to commodity/wage inflation, and a challenging environment for some companies from a traffic standpoint.

The result is that much of the group has become un-investable, and some names are looking worse by the month, including Red Robin (RRGB), which will post its third straight year of heavy net losses in FY2022.

Given this backdrop, the best strategy is to focus on the industry leaders and those with proven business models enjoying unit growth and still enjoying strong restaurant-level margins.

However, in a sector where there are still several names with these attributes, it’s tough to decipher which are the best to own. In this update, we’ll compare newly public restaurant operator First Watch (FWRG) with long-time franchiser Dominos Pizza (DPZ) and see which is the better name to own in the current environment.

Scale & Business Model

Dominos and First Watch are akin to David and Goliath from a scale standpoint, with Dominos being the largest pizza company globally with ~19,300 restaurants and First Watch being an emerging breakfast chain with ~450 restaurants.

The differences in the business model are also night and day, with Dominos being a 98% franchised model with a significant international footprint and First Watch being a primarily company-owned company model, with just 22% of its restaurants being franchised currently.

While Dominos’ operators have seen some headwinds due to elevated cheese prices and difficulty securing drivers from a margin standpoint, Dominos is more inflation-resistant than First Watch, given its franchised model where operators bear the brunt of higher costs.

The good news is that First Watch still has very respectable restaurant-level margins, even if they dipped 440 basis points in the most recent quarter. Besides, this margin erosion was largely due to a conservative pricing approach to maintain its value proposition. Plus, as its alcohol mix grows and it’s rolled out to 100% of the system, we could see some additional benefit from a margin standpoint.

That said, Dominos is the clear winner from strictly a margin standpoint, with 30% plus gross margins and double-digit operating margins vs. First Watch at 21% and 4%, respectively, on a trailing-twelve-month basis.

Domino’s Pizza - 1 / First Watch - 0 Continue reading "Restaurant Stocks: "David vs Goliath""

2 Restaurant Stocks In Undervalued Territory

It’s been a challenging year thus far for the restaurant industry, with dollars typically allocated to entertainment and a Friday night out wrestling to steal priority from rising gas bills, elevated energy costs, and higher mortgage rates.

Some restaurants have resorted to discounting to drive traffic, while others have relied on menu innovation and limited-time offers vs. promotional activities to protect their already softening margins.

FRED Personal Saving Rate

(Source: Twitter, ND Wealth Management, Steve Deppe)

Those brands that are the most out of touch have continued to raise prices at a double-digit pace to ensure they maintain margins, with Chipotle (CMG) being one such offender. While this is likely to protect margins in the interim and allow the company to meet earnings estimates, it could backfire over the medium-term, with loyal customers feeling taken advantage of after being hit with consistent menu price increases in a recessionary environment.

Although this has made it difficult to invest in the sector, a few names are doing a great job navigating the current environment, and following recent share price weakness, they’ve slipped into undervalued territory.

One is a new breakfast chain that’s bucking the negative traffic trends in the casual dining space and enjoying industry-leading retention due to a key competitive advantage. The other is a pizza chain that’s enjoying strong unit growth, and while it’s having a tough year, annual EPS is forecasted to hit new all-time highs in FY2023 and FY2024.

Let’s take a look below: Continue reading "2 Restaurant Stocks In Undervalued Territory"