How Administrative Errors at Boeing (BA) Could Cost Investors

The shocking incident earlier this year involving the Boeing 737 Max has placed The Boeing Company (BA) in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. On January 5, the door plug of a commercial Boeing 737 Max 9 for Alaska Airlines blew off mid-air, revealing serious lapses in Boeing’s quality control and safety protocols.

This incident, traced back to a simple yet critical paperwork error, highlighted the potential dangers of administrative oversights in aviation manufacturing. Moreover, it interrupted Boeing’s progress in recovering from two deadly crashes of Max jets in 2018 and 2019. These crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, which claimed about 346 lives, are now back in the spotlight as well.

Detailed Analysis of the January 5th Accident

An Alaska Airlines flight operating a Boeing 737 Max 9 experienced a significant safety breach when a door plug came off 10 minutes after the flight took off from Portland, Oregon, on its way to Ontario, California. The root cause of this alarming event was a lack of paperwork. Evidence shows four bolts that hold the door plug in place were not installed before the plane left the factory in October, as the workers did not receive the necessary work order.

This administrative error, though seemingly minor, had the potential to endanger the lives of all passengers and crew on board, but luckily, the incident wasn’t fatal.

The door plug incident highlights significant issues with the quality of work along the Boeing assembly lines. These problems have drawn the attention of multiple federal investigations and whistleblower revelations, and have contributed to delays in jet deliveries, causing widespread disruptions for airlines and passengers worldwide.

Elizabeth Lund, BA’s Senior Vice President of Quality, addressed this issue at a press conference and admitted that the absence of paperwork led to administrative oversight. “The fact that one employee could not fill out one piece of paperwork in this condition and could result in an accident was shocking to all of us,” Lund stated.

The lack of paperwork was not new information, as it had been previously disclosed in testimony before the US Senate Commerce Committee by the head of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). After the aircraft company “blatantly violated NTSB investigative regulations,” the agency issued a series of sanctions against Boeing.

So, Boeing’s disclosure of the information led to further complications with the NTSB, resulting in a reprimand and potential criminal probe referral to the Department of Justice.

The PR Team’s Struggle in Managing Continuous Crises

Boeing’s PR team has faced immense challenges in managing the fallout from continuous crises. The January 5th incident required immediate crisis management to mitigate further damage. However, their efforts were complicated by a subsequent reprimand from the NTSB for allegedly violating investigative protocols by sharing information prematurely.

BA acknowledged Lund’s recent remarks were a mistake. “We deeply regret that some of our comments, intended to make clear our responsibility in the accident and explain the actions we are taking, overstepped the NTSB’s role as the source of investigative information,” Boeing’s Kowal stated.

The strained relationship with regulatory bodies exacerbates the difficulty for Boeing’s PR team, which must now balance transparency with compliance while managing public perception and investor confidence.

Potential Financial and Reputational Damage

Administrative errors like the one seen on January 5 involving the Boeing 737 Max 9 can lead to significant financial and reputational damage. For BA, the immediate financial impact includes potential fines, legal fees, and the cost of corrective measures.

However, the long-term consequences can be even more damaging. Repeated safety issues erode trust in the brand, leading to a loss of customer confidence and potentially impacting future sales. Airlines may reconsider placing orders with Boeing and opt for competitors that are perceived as more reliable.

Investors are particularly sensitive to such risks. Boeing’s stock price is closely tied to its reputation for safety and reliability. Continued administrative errors and poor crisis management can enhance stock price volatility, affecting investor returns. The market tends to react negatively to news of safety breaches and regulatory reprimands, as seen in the aftermath of the door plug incident.

BA’s stock has plunged more than 24% over the past six months and nearly 29% year-to-date.

Bleak First-Quarter 2024 Results

BA faces increased scrutiny over the safety of its planes. As it deals with quality crises from the January 5th flight, Boeing reported a massive $355 million net loss for the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024. The company brought in revenue of $16.57 billion, a 7.5% year-over-year decline.

During the quarter, Boeing posted a 36% year-over-year decrease in commercial plane deliveries. This resulted in cash flow from operations dropping to negative $3.36 billion and non-GAAP free cash flow falling to negative $3.90 billion.

“Our first quarter results reflect the immediate actions we've taken to slow down 737 production to drive improvements in quality,” commented Dave Calhoun, Boeing’s President and CEO. “We will take the time necessary to strengthen our quality and safety management systems and this work will position us for a stronger and more stable future.”

“Near term, yes, we are in a tough moment,” Calhoun told its employees. “Lower deliveries can be difficult for our customers and for our financials. But safety and quality must and will come above all else.”

Wall Street also appears bearish about the aviation giant’s growth prospects. Analysts expect BA’s revenue for the second quarter (ended June 2024) to decrease 10.4% year-over-year to $17.71 billion. The company is projected to post a loss per share of $1.14 for the same period.

Bottom Line

The January 5th incident involving the Boeing 737 Max 9 has renewed scrutiny of air travel and Boeing’s planes. This incident highlighted a long series of safety and manufacturing issues accumulated for Boeing over the years, including two deadly crashes involving Max jets. These lapses pose serious safety risks and jeopardize the company’s reputation and financial stability.

Boeing’s repeated safety failures could have significant implications for Boeing’s future orders and stock performance. If the aviation giant cannot address these systemic issues and improve its crisis management strategies, it risks losing market share to competitors like Airbus SE (EADSY).

Investors must closely monitor BA’s response to these ongoing challenges. Effective and transparent communication, coupled with improvements in operational processes, will be crucial in restoring investor confidence. Boeing must also work to repair its relationship with regulatory bodies, ensuring compliance with all investigative protocols to avoid future reprimands and potential criminal investigations.

In conclusion, administrative errors at Boeing, exemplified by the January 5th incident, highlight the critical need for robust quality control and effective crisis management. The financial and reputational damage from such errors can considerably impact investor confidence. As Boeing navigates this problematic landscape, its ability to restore trust and demonstrate operational excellence will be vital to securing its future in the competitive aerospace industry.

The Risks and Rewards of Investing in SoundHound AI

With a $1.68 billion market cap, SoundHound AI, Inc. (SOUN) is one of the most prominent names in AI-powered voice applications, drawing significant attention from investors and analysts. Shares of SOUN have surged more than 134% over the past six months and nearly 138% year-to-date.

SOUN is at the forefront of conversational intelligence, offering voice AI solutions that allow businesses to provide incredible conversational experiences to their customers. Built on proprietary technology, it offers top-tier speed and accuracy in multiple languages to product creators across automotive, IoT devices, restaurant, and customer service industries.

SoundHound’s innovative AI-driven products include Smart Answering, Smart Ordering, and Dynamic Interaction™, a cutting-edge real-time, multimodal customer service interface.

According to research compiled by Mordor Intelligence, the voice recognition market is expected to reach $42.08 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 23% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

In the dynamic field of voice recognition technology, SoundHound encounters competition from various players striving to innovate and capture market share. Rivals range from established giants like Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) to emerging start-ups specializing in AI-driven solutions, including Krisp, Deepgram, and more.

Let’s discuss SoundHound’s fundamentals and growth prospects in detail.

Accelerates Voice AI Innovation with Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions

On May 9, SOUN partnered with Perplexity, the conversational AI-powered answer engine. The collaboration will integrate Perplexity’s online large language model (LLM) capabilities into SoundHound Chat AI across cars and IoT devices.

Leveraging Perplexity, the SoundHound Chat AI assistant will offer precise and up-to-date responses to web-based queries, addressing the type and complexity of the questions beyond the reach of static LLMs. This strategic move aims to solidify SoundHound’s AI product as the most advanced voice assistant available in today’s market.

Further, SoundHound unveiled a significant milestone on March 25. The company announced that its voice assistant with integrated ChatGPT debuted in vehicles in Japan. SoundHound Chat AI Automotive became the world’s first in-vehicle voice assistant with integrated generative AI upon its launch in April 2023. Starting in March, it became accessible in Stellantis DS Automobiles across Japan.

Also, on March 18, SOUN introduced an in-vehicle voice assistant that uses LLM on the edge through the NVIDIA DRIVE platform. SoundHound’s collaboration with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) expands the reach of generative AI to new places and situations, ensuring optimal performance even without cloud connectivity.

Notably, during the March quarter, the company closed the previously announced acquisition of SYNQ3 Restaurant Solutions, a leading provider of voice AI and other tech solutions for the restaurant sector. This deal will extend SOUN’s market reach by an order of magnitude to more than 10,000 signed locations and accelerate the deployment of leading-edge generative AI capabilities to the industry.

SYNQ3 will expand SoundHound’s customer base significantly, with the addition of prominent brands across the drive-thru, fast casual, casual dining, and convenience store segments – bringing the total to over 25 national and multinational chains.

Mixed First-Quarter Results and Upbeat 2024 Outlook

For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, SOUN’s revenues increased 73% year-over-year to $11.59 million. That surpassed analyst expectations of $10.10 million. The company’s non-GAAP profit rose 56.8% from the prior year’s quarter to $7.59 million.

Moreover, SoundHound’s cumulative subscriptions and bookings backlog was $682 million, up nearly 80% year-over-year. Also, it reported a 60% year-over-year increase in the annual run rate of more than 4 billion queries. SOUN had a cash balance of $226 million at the end of the first quarter.

“We were pleased to start the year with a robust top line performance, in our strongest Q1 ever,” stated Nitesh Sharan, CFO of SoundHound AI. ”Our business momentum continues to accelerate with a growing pipeline across all businesses.”

However, the company’s bottom line suffered significantly. SOUN’s adjusted EBITDA loss widened by 3.3% year-over-year to $15.40 million. Further, its net loss worsened by 20% from the year-ago value to $33.01 million. It posted a loss per share of $0.12, missing the consensus loss per share estimate of $0.09.

During the quarter, SOUN’s cash outflows from operating activities and investing activities were $21.95 million and $3.79 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, SOUN updated its full-year 2024 revenue guidance to be in a range of $65 to $77 million. Further, the company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability by 2025, anticipating even greater growth, with revenue exceeding $100 million.

Decelerating Profitability

SOUN’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 72.42% is 45.9% higher than the 49.6% industry average. However, the stock’s trailing-12-month EBIT margin and net income margin of negative 131.21% and negative 186.20% are unfavorable compared to the industry averages of 4.68% and 2.63%, respectively.

Additionally, the stock’s trailing-12-month levered FCF margin of negative 58.19% compared to the industry average of 10.12%. Its trailing-12-month ROCE, ROTC, and ROTA of negative 148.22%, negative 28.94%, and negative 32.88% compared to the respective industry averages of 3.91%, 2.57%, and 1.42%.

Elevated Valuation

In terms of forward EV/Sales, SOUN is trading at 21.93x, 657.9% higher than the industry average of 2.89x. Similarly, the stock’s forward Price/Sales of 23.62x is significantly higher than the industry average of 2.96x. Also, its trailing-12-month Price/Book multiple of 10.61 is 234.4% higher than the industry average of 3.17.

Bottom Line

SOUN’s position as a global leader in AI-powered voice applications and its strategic initiatives set it for continued growth in a rapidly expanding market. The company’s innovative AI-powered products, strategic partnerships with Perplexity and NVIDIA, and the recent acquisition of SYNQ3 accelerate market expansion across automotive and restaurant sectors, offering opportunities for revenue diversification.

Despite impressive revenue growth in the first quarter of 2024, SoundHound faces profitability challenges, as reflected in widening losses and negative margins. Continued losses and cash burn could strain financial resources and investor confidence.

Analysts expect SOUN’s revenue for 2024 and 2025 to increase 53.7% and 46.6% year-over-year to $70.52 million and $103.35 million, respectively. However, the company is expected to report losses for at least two fiscal years. Moreover, SoundHound failed to surpass consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, which is disappointing.

SoundHound’s valuation metrics, such as its forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales ratios, indicate a premium compared to industry peers. An elevated valuation can often lead to enhanced volatility and susceptibility to market corrections, particularly if the company fails to meet growth expectations or faces challenges in achieving profitability.

Thus, investing in SOUN presents a blend of potential risks and rewards for investors to consider. While the company demonstrates strength in revenue growth and market leadership within the voice recognition sector, notable challenges warrant attention, including massive losses, rapid cash burn, and stretched valuation.

So, investors are advised to monitor SOUN’s financial performance, execution of growth plans, and market dynamics before making informed investment decisions.

Warren Buffett's Oil Investments: Insights Into Berkshire Hathaway's Oil Holdings

Warren Buffett, a prominent billionaire investor known for his investments through Berkshire Hathaway, holds significant investments in the oil sector, with holdings in Chevron Corporation (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) owns 126.1 million shares of CVX, valued at $1.5 billion. This ownership stake represents about 6.7% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Berkshire’s purchase of shares in CVX during the fourth quarter of 2023 is seen as a significant endorsement of Chevron’s $53 billion merger with Hess Corporation (HES), announced on October 23. This move is interpreted as a strong vote of confidence for Chevron's investors and the oil and gas sector as a whole.

Additionally, per Berkshire Hathaway’s February shareholder letter, the multinational investment firm holds a 27.8% stake in OXY and has warrants that could increase its ownership further at a fixed price.

“We particularly like its vast oil and gas holdings in the United States, as well as its leadership in carbon-capture initiatives, though the economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven,” Buffett said, “Both of these activities are very much in our country’s interest.”

In November, Occidental Petroleum and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, announced a joint investment of $550 million in Occidental’s direct air capture plant, Stratos, located in West Texas. The plant is anticipated to commence operations by the middle of the upcoming year.

Direct air capture (DAC) technology differs from traditional carbon capture methods because it extracts carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere instead of capturing emissions at the source, such as at industrial facilities like steel plants.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 27 DAC plants have been commissioned globally to date, with plans for at least 130 DAC facilities in several stages of development. Both Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) estimate that DAC could evolve into a multi-trillion-dollar market for oil producers by 2050 as scale brings costs down.

Warren Buffett has expressed admiration for Vicki Hollub, the President and CEO of Occidental Petroleum, who is the first woman to lead a major American oil company. “Under Vicki Hollub’s leadership, Occidental is doing the right things for both its country and its owners,” Buffett stated. “No one knows what oil prices will do over the next month, year, or decade.”

“But Vicki does know how to separate oil from rock, and that’s an uncommon talent, valuable to her shareholders and her country,” he added.

Understanding the Dynamics of the Energy Sector

Also, Berkshire's investments consider the dynamics of the energy sector, including factors such as supply and demand trends, geopolitical events, and technological advancements. Oil prices climbed above $90 per barrel last week. This surge was attributed to tensions in the Middle East, concerns regarding tightening supply, and optimistic expectations about demand growth amid improving economies.

Brent crude passed around $91 per barrel on Friday, taking its gains for the year to 18%. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, closely linked to U.S. gasoline prices, has been even stronger, with 21% gains. Both benchmark crude oil prices settled at their highest levels since October 2023.

The oil market could see prices rise to $100 per barrel, especially if OPEC+ maintains its production cuts and extends them further into the second half of the year. This scenario is supported by expectations of robust demand, particularly in the second half, driven by economic growth and increased consumption.

Vitol’s Muller told on Gulf Intelligence’s Daily Energy Markets podcast that he anticipates a significant uptick in refined product demand globally, at around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) than in the same period last year.

This bullish outlook is echoed by experts like Bob McNally, founder of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House adviser, who told Bloomberg Television in an interview that the market is currently “on firm fundamental footing.”

“I think $100 oil is entirely real — it just requires a little more risk pricing on the true geopolitical risk,” McNally added.

Now, let’s review the fundamentals of CVX and OXY in detail:

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

With a $299.80 billion market cap, CVX engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations internationally. It produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals, and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and the industry.

The company also aims to grow its traditional oil and gas business, lower the carbon intensity of its operations, and expand its new lower carbon business in renewable fuels, hydrogen, carbon capture, and other emerging technologies.

On April 4, Chevron New Energies (CNE), a CVX division, announced a lead investment in ION Clean Energy (ION), a Boulder-based tech company that provides post-combustion point-source capture technology through its third-generation ICE-31 liquid amine system. ION raised $45 million in Series A financing led by CNE. 

“We continue to make progress on our goal to deliver the full value chain of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as a business, and we believe ION is a part of this solution,” said Chris Powers, vice president of CCUS & Emerging with CNE.

Also, on March 19, CNE and JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration Corporation signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that offers a framework to evaluate the export of Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) from Japan to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects located in Australia and other countries in the Asia Pacific region.

For the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, CVX’s total revenues and other income declined 16.5% year-over-year to $47.18 billion. Its total adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS decreased 17.8% and 15.6% over the prior-year quarter to $6.45 billion and $3.5, respectively.

However, the company’s worldwide and U.S. net oil-equivalent production set annual records. Worldwide production increased 4% from a year ago to more than 3.1 barrels of oil-equivalent per day, primarily due to the acquisition of PDC Energy, Inc. (PDC) and growth in the Permian Basin, up 10% from 2022. This was led by 14% growth in the U.S.

Last year, CVX returned more cash to shareholders and produced more oil and gas than any other year in the company’s history. Cash returned to shareholders was nearly $26 billion for the full year, 18% higher than the prior year’s total.

The company’s Board of Directors further declared an 8% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.63 per share, paid on March 11, 2024, to all holders of common stock, as shown on the transfer records of the corporation at the close of business on February 16, 2024.

CVX’s annual dividend of $6.52 translates to a yield of 4.03% on the current share price. Its four-year average dividend yield is 4.43%. Moreover, the company’s dividend payouts have increased at CAGRs of 6.08% and 6.3% over the past three and five years, respectively.

For 2024, CVX announced an expected organic capital expenditure range of $15.5 to $16.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) budget of around $3 billion. With the acquisition of PDC Energy, Chevron announced an annual capex guidance range of $14 to $16 billion through 2027.

Following the completion of the Hess acquisition, which is expected to be finalized in the first half of 2024, CVX’s annual capex budget is expected to increase significantly to a range of $19 billion to $22 billion.

Analysts expect CVX’s revenue for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to increase by 1.8% year-over-year to $204.64 billion. However, the consensus EPS estimate of $12.82 for the current year indicates a decline of 2.4% year-over-year.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

With a market cap of $60.94 billion, OXY is a global energy company with assets primarily in the U.S., the Middle East, and North Africa. The company is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the U.S., including a leading producer in the Permian and DJ basins and offshore Gulf of Mexico. 

On February 8, OXY’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share on common stock, payable on April 15, 2024, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 8, 2024. The annual dividend per share has increased to $0.88 from its previous rate of $0.72.

OXY’s annual dividend translates to a yield of 1.27% on the current share price. Its four-year average yield is 3.44%. The company’s dividend payments have grown at a CAGR of 5.7% over the past three years.

On December 11, 2023, OXY entered a purchase agreement to acquire Midland-based oil and gas producer CrownRock L.P., a joint venture of CrownQuest Operating LLC and Lime Rock Partners. This acquisition is anticipated to deliver increased free cash flow on a share basis, including $1 billion in the first year based on $70 per barrel WTI.

The acquisition further complements and strengthens Occidental’s leading Permian portfolio by adding around 170 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed) of high-margin, lower-decline unconventional production in 2024 and approximately 1,700 undeveloped locations. It enhances the company’s resource base and growth potential in the region.

During the fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2023, OXY’s revenues and other income decreased 9.6% year-over-year to $7.53 billion. Its income before income taxes declined 35% from the prior year’s quarter to $1.56 billion. Its non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.74, down 54% year-over-year.

Furthermore, the company’s current liabilities increased to $9.15 billion as of December 31, 2023, compared to $7.76 billion as of December 31, 2022.

Street expects OXY’s revenue and EPS for the first quarter (ending March 2024) to decline 9.4% and 45.8% year-over-year to $6.58 billion and $0.59, respectively. For the fiscal year 2024, the consensus EPS estimate of $3.37 indicates a decrease of 8.9% year-over-year.

However, the company’s revenue for the ongoing year is expected to increase 2.5% year-over-year to $29.63 billion.

Bottom Line

Warren Buffett’s investments in the oil sector through Berkshire Hathaway have garnered attention, particularly with holdings in CVX and OXY. Hathaway’s oil investments are also aligned with the demand-supply dynamics in the energy sector. The recent surge in oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, supply constraints, and an optimistic demand outlook, reflects the evolving landscape that Buffett’s investments navigate.

While rising oil prices, production growth, strategic acquisitions and investments, and continued commitment to rewarding shareholders via dividends make CVX an attractive option for long-term investors seeking growth, the company continues to face several challenges, including commodity price dependence, higher operational costs, and uncertainty in the energy transition.

Chevron's core business in oil and gas exploration (upstream) makes it susceptible to boom-and-bust cycles in commodity prices. The company’s earnings dropped in 2023 due to lower oil and gas prices and reduced refining profits, highlighting the ongoing challenge of staying profitable amid market changes. Also, analysts have presented a mixed outlook for 2024.

CVX also faces cost headwinds, with its operating expenses trending upward and inflationary pressures threatening to squeeze margins further. Moreover, the global shift toward renewable energy presents a long-term challenge for oil and gas companies. 

Regarding OXY, its investments in low-carbon ventures, strategic acquisitions, and technology advancements present numerous opportunities for growth and industry leadership. However, the company must also tackle challenges related to its reliance on commodity prices, managing operational costs and debt obligations, and navigating global economic uncertainties.

While Occidental’s last reported earnings topped analyst estimates, they dropped compared to year-ago values. Further, analysts appear bearish about the company’s financial performance this year.

Staying profitable in such a volatile environment requires strategic resilience, efficient cost management, and a focus on operational excellence to navigate through boom-and-bust cycles effectively. So, given the mixed performance and outlook for CVX and OXY, investors may consider waiting for a better entry point before investing in these stocks.

While Buffett’s endorsement and long-term investment strategy hold weight, it’s essential to assess the companies’ financial health, growth prospects, and industry trends comprehensively.

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

Bitcoin (BTC) prices recently surged above the $52,000 mark, pushing its market capitalization back over $1 trillion for the first time since December 2021. The rally in the prices of the flagship cryptocurrency is due to anticipation building around the impending 'Bitcoin Halving' in April this year and the sustained inflow of USD into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Primary Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Price Increase

Spot bitcoin ETFs are driving BTC’s recent surge. In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing and trading of 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) shares after years of repeated rejections.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded another strong week, with net inflows exceeding $2.2 billion from February 12 to 16. As per Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the combined volume was higher than inflows received by any other among the 2,400 ETFs available in the U.S.

According to data from BitMEX Research, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) received the most capital, accumulating positive flows of $1.6 billion over the last week. “$IBIT alone has taken in $5.2b YTD, which is 50% of BlackRock’s total net ETF flows, out of 417 ETFs,” stated Eric Balchunas.

Among the spot Bitcoin ETFs holding billions of dollars in assets, Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) witnessed considerable inflows, amassing $648.5 million from February 12 to 16. The Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) gathered around $405 million in the same period, while the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust (BITB) garnered $232.1 million in capital inflows.

However, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) are hampering the combined performance of the other newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. Between February 12 and 16, the fund saw withdrawals of around $624 million. Since its conversion from an over-the-counter product to a spot ETF on January 10, Grayscale’s fund has witnessed more than $7 billion in capital outflows.

The other new ETFs are majorly driving Bitcoin’s recent price gains. The cryptocurrency is up approximately 91% in the past four months, ending on February 15.

Also, growing anticipation around a cryptic-sounding event known as “the halving,” which is to take place on April 19, 2024, is one of the primary drivers behind Bitcoin’s surge. The “halving” is a feature in Bitcoin’s protocol that automatically reduces the rate of Bitcoin production. Generally, it pushes the price of bitcoin higher.

The price rise of the world’s largest cryptocurrency was also buoyed by expectations of interest rate cuts later this year as inflation eases.

Google Trends Show a Decline in Bitcoin Interest

Recently, Bitcoin’s price jumped above the $52,000 mark; however, fascination with cryptocurrency seems to be diminishing. Google Trends data suggests a subdued level of interest, with the search term “bitcoin” scoring just 36 out of 100 in global metrics over the last 90 days.

That is a sharp contrast to the excitement seen about three years ago when Bitcoin first exceeded the $50,000 level, with Google Trends showing a score of 71 out of 100 for the search term “bitcoin” during that period.

Even with the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs on January 11 this year, the search term “bitcoin” on Google Trends peaked at a score of 100. But since then, there has not been a significant surge in interest, with the search term “bitcoin” being steady at a score of 36 out of 100.

Despite high valuation, the declining fascination with bitcoin suggests a potential consolidation and maturation of the crypto market, where investors are more cautious in their approach or a shift in the public’s focus. While institutional investors have entered the scene, retail investors appear less engaged.

To regain the attention of the retail crowd, Bitcoin might need to surge to even greater heights.

Future Of Bitcoin Price Trajectory

The recent surge of Bitcoin to levels not witnessed in more than two years has sparked debate among analysts on the sustainability of the upward momentum. While some analysts expect this rise to be followed by a correction, others believe the bull run will continue.

According to Swissblock analysts, Bitcoin may signal a correction in the short term. Analysts wrote that the momentum of Bitcoin, which has paused at the key resistance mark of $52,000 following a recent rapid ascent of nearly 33% over the past few weeks, could indicate “a pullback” as they consider the increase potentially unsustainable.

Despite a short-term dip, Swissblock analysts added that any forthcoming pullback could be a buying opportunity if BTC holds its support near the $47,500 level. The report advises investors to consider any correction as a potential entry point for long-term positions.

Despite warnings of a potential correction, some analysts continue to be positive about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. 10x Research analysts expect a price target of $57,500 for the next surge, indicating that the uptrend in BTC could continue beyond the current resistance level.

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen has an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, arguing that its solid liquidity and rising demand for Bitcoin futures could push its price to $57,500. He cited historical patterns before previous block reward halvings as supporting evidence for further upside potential.

In addition, institutional cryptocurrency exchange FalconX observed “extraordinary” trading volumes supporting the uptrend in early 2024, like those seen during the March 2024 regional banking crisis.

FalconX analysts also noted that historically low volumes after price increases have sometimes indicated false breakouts in crypto markets, but liquidity conditions around the January rally have generally remained strong.

Bottom Line

In January this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds to start listing and trading on U.S. exchanges. The growing success of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs turned investor sentiment more optimistic, allowing Bitcoin to exceed the $52,000 level, marking the first time it has hit this price since late 2021.

Also, the value of all the bitcoin in circulation, or market cap, grew above $1 trillion after the price surge.

According to Nigel Green, Founder and CEO of deVere Group, the introduction of the spot Bitcoin ETFs provides a new avenue for institutional investors to cautiously enter the cryptocurrency market, representing a significant step toward broader adoption and acceptance.

“This approval by the financial regulator of the world’s largest economy is a landmark moment for bitcoin and the wider crypto market and boosts prices in the long-term, even if there’s a sell-off in the near-term,” said Green. “The approval of bitcoin ETFs represents a resounding institutional validation of the cryptocurrency, marking a departure from its initial reputation as a speculative and volatile asset.”

Further, Bitcoin prices are strengthened by the upcoming “halving,” the supply-restricting event written in Bitcoin’s code that occurs every four years and is set for April 2024.

The recent introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs signifies a major development in the integration of bitcoin into mainstream investment options, possibly attracting a wider array of investors beyond conventional crypto enthusiasts.

But the relatively muted response to bitcoin’s increased value, as indicated by Google Trends data, suggests that the crypto market might be transitioning into a more mature and consolidating phase, wherein investors exercise more caution and discernment.

The drastic shift in sentiment could point toward an evolving landscape for cryptocurrencies, where factors beyond price appreciation play a more substantial role in market dynamics and investor behavior.

Amid declining public interest, investors grappling with the decision to wait or sell bitcoin should consider their risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. Staying informed, implementing risk management techniques, and diversifying one’s portfolio can help navigate the dynamic cryptocurrency market.

Investors should stay abreast of cryptocurrency news, regulatory developments, and market sentiment, which can provide insights into future trends and potential catalysts for price movements. Also, it is advisable to keep an eye on institutional interest and adoption, which can help gauge the long-term potential of Bitcoin.