2016: Current Market Themes

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market.  We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit.  When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

Back in April, with the first improvement in the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s bookings, we went on bull alert.  By June 22, we had established a trend in the rising bookings and noted the Details Behind Semiconductor Leadership and the bullish implications that this Canary’s Canary in the coal mine carried. Continue reading "2016: Current Market Themes"

It Feels Like Inflation

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

Last night’s post on the US stock market ended as follows:

“As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant.  This market is flipping them the bird.  Markets can rise a long way before a rate hike regime finally kills them.  It feels like inflation folks.”

This prompted a question from an NFTRH subscriber about what markets would benefit, and in what differing ways would they benefit if an inflationary phase comes to dominate?  That is a far reaching question and a difficult one as well, because inflation’s effects have a way of being unpredictable (how many would have answered ‘US stock market’ in the spring of 2011 to the question “where will the post-crisis inflation to date manifest on this cycle”?).

Last weekend, in an NFTRH 396 excerpt we talked about Applied Materials stellar quarterly report and what it might mean for the economy, the Fed, the gold sector and most of all the idea of an inflationary backdrop becoming more readily apparent (2003-2007 Greenspan style). Continue reading "It Feels Like Inflation"

Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD?

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395.  I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title’s question has come roaring to the forefront this week.  So the information (including the charts) is slightly dated, but becoming intensely relevant as of now.

We anticipated an ‘inflation trade’ or Anti-USD asset market bounce and this has been going on since mid-February. That was when silver wrestled leadership from the first mover, gold (which bottomed in December and turned up in January), and a whole host of other global asset markets began to rise persistently.

gold.spx.crb.silver.eem

So why again did the US stock market react negatively to good economic data on Friday? Continue reading "Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD?"

O.K. I got it wrong ... but MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" got it right.

O.K. I got it wrong ... but MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" got it right.

The last three days in equity markets have been extraordinary beyond anyone's imagination and you have to respect the market.

One of my heroes in the stock market was a gentleman named Bernard Baruch. You basically don't hear about him anymore, but his teachings about the market are incredibly useful. You may want to read his book, Baruch: My Own Story, which I highly recommend.

One of my favorite sayings that Baruch gets credited for goes like this: "The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible." Well that certainly happened to me this week when the head and shoulders formation reversed and the market squeezed all the shorts dry.

I got it wrong, but MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" had it right. Our "Trade Triangle" technology was basically neutral and on the sideline's until yesterday when the weekly "Trade Triangle" flashed a buy signal on the stock market.

If you've been reading this blog for any length of time you know that I stress diversification and discipline in trading. When you do that, you really do win out in the long run.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

It hasn't sunk in yet, and maybe it never will.

It's not that often that we revisit previous posts but here is one that I wrote on October 23, 2008. It seems to me that seven months later not a lot has changed. I still think that we are  going to see some difficult times ahead. But not all is doom and gloom, there are always opportunities to make money in the market.

Anyway I thought you would find this post interesting and hopefully educational.

Continue reading "It hasn't sunk in yet, and maybe it never will."