Over the first half of 2021, the overall markets have had breathtaking moves of appreciation. The major indices are in unprecedented territory breaking through all-time high after all-time in what seems to be daily. The broader market has been in a blistering bull market for over a year straight, only accelerating since the November 2020 election cycle and really taking off into July 2021. Thus far in 2021, the S&P 500 is up over 16% and recently posted a seven consecutive positive day winning streak. The S&P 500 is up nearly 5% in the two weeks covering the Q2/Q3 junction, with its most recent run of seven consecutive days being the best winning streak since August of 2020. The other major indices, such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, are showing similar patterns as measured via QQQ and DIA, respectively. These markets are unrelenting and beg the question, do valuations even matter anymore?
Stocks are overbought and at extreme valuations, as measured by any historical metric (P/E ratio, Shiller P/E ratio, Buffet Indicator, Put/Call Ratio, and percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average) or technical metric (Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength Index - RSI). Valuations are stretched across the board, with the major averages at all-time highs and far away above pre-pandemic highs.
Financial Experts Issue Market Crash Harbinger
Major influencers across the financial spectrum such as Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, Leon Cooperman, Stanley Druckenmiller, Jeffrey Gundlach, Kevin O'Leary, Gary Shilling, and Robert Kiyosaki are all bracing for a market crash. Collectively, they are all concerned about the rampant speculation and extreme valuations fueled by government stimulus programs.
Michael Burry stated that the markets are in the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things,” and speculation is happening across assets before the "mother of all crashes."
Jeremy Grantham stated that the market is Continue reading "Do Valuations Matter Anymore?"
