As the 10-year to T-bill yield curve chart makes clear, we are not in Kansas anymore. We are in Wonderland and as you can see, in Wonderland interest rates and their interrelationships are at the center of events.
Last week the bullish case reasserted itself across financial markets, but to argue that policy makers are doing anything better than pumping future distortions into the system is crazy talk along the lines of 'the world is flat' or… ‘the above chart is flat’.
Last week Ben Bernanke clarified for people that yes indeed the Fed will eventually taper its QE bond buying operation while making clear that Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) will remain as is. I think that the average market participant is starting to settle in and get comfortable with the terms of our 'Taper to Carry'(T2C) plan, which sees the banks benefiting from borrowing short and lending longer. Continue reading "Rates of Interest" →
Below is the opening segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 246). My friend’s request for a 'simple' road map ended up a bit wordy, but I think the chain is logical.
Mail from a friend: "I think your taper-to-carry idea has legs, but I’d really appreciate it if you went over the basic theory and how you see the dots connecting, if you decide there’s space and time in this weekend's edition at least. What I’d really want is a simple road map, the logical chain if you will. Nothing fancy, just the way it may (repeat may) play out and what its consequences might be."
When this request came in I had already been thinking about trying to put this all together in a logical sequence since 'T2C' was graduated to an actual plan from a thesis last week.
The idea was first introduced in NFTRH 241 on June 2, which was the week that the BKX-SPX ratio broke out to the upside and long-term Treasury bond yields broke up from bottoming patterns. In the ensuing 5 weeks the macro fundamentals and technicals have only become firmer in support of T2C. Continue reading "Taper to Carry … a Logical Chain" →