The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293′s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.
10 & 30yr yields have declined to support as NFTRH projected
Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the 'Great Rotation' (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds. Continue reading "US Treasury Bonds, Gold & Stock Market"→
There is a lot of talk now about a flattening of the yield curve. This talk has been among the most intense right here at the website you are reading at this moment. A flattening curve is commonly viewed as bad for gold, and according to Mark Hulbert, is an indicator of a coming recession.
But is the curve really flattening or is this all hype based on Janet Yellen's press conference comments? Here is a chart the likes of which we have been using in NFTRH for many months now, the 30 year vs. the 5 year yield.
Everyone expects Janet Yellen to be a rolling over, inflationist stooge just like they did Ben Bernanke. Bernanke came on board after Alan Greenspan had taken the Fed Funds rate up to around 5% if I remember correctly. Inflationists and gold bugs thought they had it in the bag when 'Helicopter Ben' assumed control.
Indeed, Bernanke did what he was supposed to do (per the 'Helicopter 'Ben' script) as systemic stresses began to gather in 2007, addressing that pesky Funds rate, culminating in December, 2008's official ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). Here again is the chart showing the S&P 500's 'Hump #3' attended by this most beneficial monetary policy.
As noted again and again, the much trumpeted 'taper' of QE is not only not a negative for the economy, we have made a strong case that its mechanics are actually a positive, in the near term at least. But putting ZIRP on the table would be a whole different ball of wax. Continue reading "ZIRP Up Next?"→