Quarterly chart changes give hints to future trends

At the end of each quarter, I like to see how the market has performed in comparison to the last quarter. Seeing as we are nearing the end of Q2 of 2009, we are starting to crunch the numbers.

So here goes:

Data for the end of Q2 is based on intra-day prices traded on Friday the 26th, of June.

Last quarter gold (XAUUSDO) closed at 921.06 bases the spot market. As of today we are trading around 939.70, that's a move of 2.3% over last quarter. Clearly this market continues to move higher on a quarterly basis.

Dow (DJI) closed at 7608.92 last quarter and as of today we're around 8413.15, that's a positive gain of 10.56% for the quarter.

Last quarter the S&P 500 (INX) closed at 797.87. Presently we are trading around 914.64. That's a 14.63% gain over last quarter.

NASDAQ (COMP) closed at 1519.96 last quarter and is currently trading at 1826.44. That's a gain of 20.16% for the quarter.

Crude Oil (NYMEX_CL), closed last quarter at 53.82 basis the August contract. Currently we're trading at 69.30 that's a gain of 28.76% for the quarter.

Last quarter the Dollar Index (DX) closed at 85.43. Presently we are trading at 79.82, that's a loss of 6.48% for the quarter.

So there you have it. The exact changes for the quarter (of course we will only find out on Tuesday as we close out Q2). I think is a pretty fair bet to say that the stock market and crude oil should close higher for the quarter.

The only two markets that are questionable right now are gold (which is up 2.03% as of this writing) and the dollar index (which is down 6.48%). We could see these two markets continuing this trend in Q3; higher gold and a lower dollar.

As always, we will be using MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" technology to capture as much of these moves as we can. As I said at the beginning of this blog, I like to look at the quarterly charts because they show you the bigger picture and a greater sense of the major trends.

I highly recommend that you incorporate reviewing the quarterly charts and using them in your own trading and strategy models. I believe that they will help you enormously in the future.

Every success,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

9 thoughts on “Quarterly chart changes give hints to future trends

  1. Thanks for sharing your technical observations on the market and specific sectors.

    Just a note of interest concerning the quarterly charts on gold: the slow stochastic indicator has made a bullish crossover on the London Gold Fix as well as many of the strong gold mining companies. After some consolidation, it looks to me like the gold sector has a very good chance of breaking out during the upcoming new quarter.

  2. If you're a day trader you use a one minute chart. If you're a long term buy and hold investor you use a monthly or quarterly chart.

  3. But on 12/31/08, the S&P 500 closed at 903. Since the end of March figure was 798, that would have indicated, by this measure, that we were in for a losing current quarter.
    But it wasn't so.
    Which means to me, as they say, 'past performance is no guarantee of future success.'
    So how do we use this quarterly measure?

    1. Louis,

      You're absolutely right, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

      Having said that I still look at the quarterly charts but I do believe they're important in determining some long term trends. That's not to say that the right every time, in fact it would say they're probably right maybe 60% to 70% of the time.

      That is why we use our Trade Triangle technology to time and filter trades in all markets.

      Every success,


  4. I have been using Market Club for 3 quarters now to continue your theme.

    I trade Forex, Gold and Shares

    I still thin that the daily signals are unreliable, I used to think that they were a great early entry signal, but in my experience there success is no better than flipping a coin TBT is the most recent example that I've seen. I don't know why there in Market Club at all.

    The triangles seem to work better on the weekly and monthly signals.

    More guidance from Adam for no-savy people like me is great, like the recent video on BVF and HCBK.. Here you demonstrate two stocks that could make us money if we get in at the right time on the signals. For me this kind of guidance is great.

    When does a monthly signal become outdated?

    Mkt Club gave a monthly signal on TBT and others.. its still green some 6 weeks later. Do I still get in ?


    Simple Mind

    1. Dennis,

      Thank you for your feedback. Are you filtering your trades? If you're not familiar with filtering your trades than you not using MarketClub the way it should be used.

      Please give our technical support team a call at 410-867-2100 they will be happy to walk you through how you can filter your trades and cut out losing trades and make more winning trades.


  5. I'd like a review of
    a) how the trade triangles are generated (how much delay, how sensitive)
    b) how to best use use triangles and scores for long term investing, short term trading, medium holds, etc.

    Seems to me there's nothing magic about an exact quarter, any more than a birthday. I look at the most recent several months indeed, but not EOQ numbers particularly.

  6. Not sure what Adam is trying to say here - that these quarterly results are major trends that are likely to continue?

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