Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
This is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow.
- The yield curve is on a flattening trend that started signaling the beginning of the end of the inflation trades since the flattener began last April.
- The Silver/Gold ratio has failed to establish any sort of firm signal to back the inflation trades since silver blew out with the ill-fated #silversqueeze promotion a year ago. That remains the case today.
- Canada’s TSX-V index has gone bearish nominally and never did break its downtrend in relation to the senior TSX index. This is negative signaling for the more speculative inflation trades.
- The Baltic Dry index of global shipping prices is in the tank, so to speak, having topped in October and dropped by 75% since.
- Credit spreads are still intact, but bear watching as nominal junk bonds come under stress.
- Industrial metals are still rising vs. the gold price, a still-intact macro positive, although Copper/Gold ratio continues to be undecided and a potential warning.
- Gold had exploded upward vs. US (SPX/SPY) and global (ACWX) stocks. As we noted in an NFTRH update at the time, it would be subject to a potentially severe pullback whether or not the ratio has bottomed. The pullback started on Wednesday (FOMC day, and who is surprised?), and when gold bottoms vs. stocks the macro will be indicated to go quite bearish. For now, we’re neutral on the short-term.
With that macro backdrop in mind, let’s update three areas, US Stocks, Commodities, and Gold. Continue reading "A Macro View For Stocks, Commodities And Gold"