Our Stand In Key Markets at the End of February

I thought that our Trader's Blog readers would like to know where we stand at the end of February in some of the key markets that we track with MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.

Gold -- neutral

Crude Oil futures -- long

Indices -- long the Dow, SP500 and NASDAQ

Euro -- short Euro, long dollar

As we head into March and the beginning of the end of Q1, I believe we'll see some interesting moves in the above markets.

We have discussed this before, but I would like to again touch on market perception. If you remember, the US dollar was going to continue to trade down. That did not happen as events in Europe drove the euro down and the dollar was once again perceived as a safe haven. Once again perception trumps over the market.

The equity markets continue to remain in a positive trend, however the seesaw action of the last week or two in February indicates that there is a tremendous amount of jousting between the bulls and bears.

Crude oil remains positive based on our "Trade Triangle" technology, whereas gold at the moment is neutral.

It is going to be an interesting month in all four of these markets.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

P.S. The above positions are based on our Trade Triangle Technology and  can change and should not be perceived as written in granite.

48 thoughts on “Our Stand In Key Markets at the End of February

  1. This web site can be a stroll-by for all of the info you needed about this and didn’t know who to ask. Glimpse here, and also you’ll undoubtedly uncover it.

  2. Sanjay,

    I think crude WILL fall back. Technically it should've happened by now, but someone forgot to tell Iran, who threateded to cut off Europe from their oil, hence lower world supply, higher price. Once this geopolitical anomaly dies down and everyone realizes that the debt mess in Europe is still here, the technicals will once again kick in and oil should drop as the USD rises. Earlier in the oil cycle, an event like Iran would've sent the price up 10+%. So far its only been a trickle...that's a warning.

    But don't short it until all signals are a go.

    Remember also, this is a short-term trade. Oil's ultimately going much higher and USD going much lower relative to CAN and AUS.

    And as for those who think "the fix is in" and the market's being manipulated...that's extremely unlikely. Just remember there are $trillion on the sidelines from the recession and any sign of life in the markets brings in more money than it should, leading to "irrational exuberance"...in other words, bulls will run with the slightest glimmer of hope right now. And as Adam points out, they are being battled by a lot of bears, hence the thin trading range.

    Cheers.

  3. Adam,

    I think the trading beginners have to realize that trading is very simple but very hard. Even a 2-year-old (literally---my kids have done it) can look at a chart and see that it's going up or down. When you see it going up, go long; if its going down, go short. And if you're wrong, USE STOP LOSSES TO PROTECT YOURSELF!! Maximum loss should only ever be 6%. Maximum gain should be unlimited.

    IF, however, you strictly use the trade triangles, the market will eat you up by simple Newtonian physics: "What goes up must come down". Take the EURUSD for example, the long term trend is up, but look at those massive corrections. You could easily be right and bankrupt at the same time. In other words, when a triangle is triggered, it's just a way of warning you to pay attention. IF you anticipate what is going to happen, or jump in because a spike in price has triggered a triangle, you will lose 80% of the time.

    I have seen trading compared to poker several times. You have to be patient!! Wait until ALL the cards are in line before going all in. You could have two aces in your hand...but then see a 3, 5, J flop.

    Patience is absolutely key. Warren Buffet said it best: "You don't have to swing at everything -- wait for your pitch." Don't start counting your win before ALL the signals have been triggered.

    Cheers.

  4. Maulik,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    I am not suggesting that you buy EUR as the major trend remains negative on this currency. I am suggesting that we could see a rally and not to be overly short this market.

    All the best,
    Adam

  5. Hello Adam,

    I just show your EURUSD video. Do you suggest to buy EUR at this point, since you indicated positive diversion in MACD ?

    Thanks for all your videos...

  6. This may sound strange but it may also have value. We are social animals and as such behave collectively, whether we believe it or not. There is no way we can escape the influence of others. Some will say that they turn off the TV and shut their office doors to avoid that influence. It does not matter, we all will sense what is going on. I have said to others that often we need no sentiment indicators whatsoever because people will come to us with the message and let us know exactly how they (we) feel. At the February low, I had a very hard night's sleep and actually woke up troubled in the middle of the night. I don't worry for myself; I worry for my kids and grandkids. What kind of future can they have? If you have kids, you will know the feeling.
    So why mention all of this? Because I knew from experience that this could be trouble in terms of a market RALLY. Just a couple of days before that I commented to Adam that I thought his call on GOOG was gutsy and that I respected him for making the call. Why, because I knew this could be trouble due to the negativity in the air. Also there were the charts which looked absolutely horrible. I have been around long enough to know that when charts look so bad, things might quickly change to the upside.
    At the same time, we could also easily be on the edge of the cliff, ready to fall into the abyss. I know that too. Been there. Done that. This is one of those intense highly dynamic moments in time when things can collapse or reverse. There is no way to know. But my very sick feeling inside told me that I had better be ready to buy. Believe me, this is not easy to do. It goes completely against our human nature. From that standpoint, I must say that I find trading to be unpleasant. But that is the nature of the business. If you want to trade you will have to learn to live with it.
    So my advise is to learn from mistakes. "Physician heal thyself." And learn to read your insides. Look deep inside. "Know thyself."

    Best regards.

    1. Nolan,

      Thank you for your great comments and your insight into the realities of the marketplace.

      All the best,
      Adam

  7. Hi Adam,
    Unfortunately i have to totally agree with disappointed people on videos produced 3 to 4 weeks ago, regarding Gold not going higher, Silver is not really good, Oil will go down, and Market will retest Oct 08 low etc. To me signal are dancing after the fact and I stay clueless to go long or short.
    I also believe strongly this market is telling true story or showing true picture, as VERY BASIC thing is Millions of people still don't have jobs means NO MONEY than how can they spend. So this look manipulated. Please give your input. I am still on side line. In past I made some money using your trade triangle, BUT i lost MORE than made.
    In past my comment were not published I wish I can see this time.
    Thank You in advance.

    1. Hitesh,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      The results we show are based on our trade triangle technology. Some of the videos I produce are meant to teach other ways of looking at the market. They would be with the MACD, Fibonacci, and other tools that we use technically at marketclub.com.

      If you just religiously traded with the trade triangles you will make money over time. There is no doubt in my mind about that. The key here is to be diversified into five or six markets and to follow all the signals using are filtered approach. If you're not aware of our filtered approach please feel free to contact su*****@IN*.com or call us at 410 867-2100 extension 104.

      All the best,
      Adam

  8. I am completely confused. You sent out an email for the perfect portfolio and recommended going short GLD by using the DGZ. That Exchange-traded notes ("ETNs") is unsecured, unsubordinated debt obligations of the company that issues them and have no principal protection. Secondly, it is VERY thinly traded and getting in and out would be difficult at best. Frankly, I am somewhat concerned about this advice. Today, I get an email saying you are "neutral" Gold. I am very glad I didn't buy into the "perfect portfolio". I stayed long stocks and oil and didn't short oil through SZO either... another thinly traded - difficult to use ETN. Let me remind you that ETNs do not hold any assets. Therefore, unlike investors in exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"), which hold assets that could be liquidated in the event of a failure of the ETF issuer, ETN investors would only have an unsecured claim for payment against the ETN issuer in the event of issuer's failure. I do not consider this arrangement to be "perfect".
    I did enjoy the email this morning. I can't spend all day trying to figure these "messages" out. Please send a clear message, like the one today. Gold - Neutral, Crude - long, Stocks - long, Euro - short. I agree with the trading the trends in the long sense is correct. If your trade triangles can establish a correct trend then your service has value. BTW - your record in this sense is good and has value. Last, there is no Neurtal triangle. I think you need one. Thank you for your educational efforts too. I enjoy the videos, but they are educational in nature and are not "action advice". My best regards, JohnZ

    1. John,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      I agree with you some of those markets all very thin and I would prefer just to short the ETFs which is possible to do.

      The comments we made are based on trade triangle technology and the results have been excellent in this field.

      Now to answer your other question about a neutral triangle position, yes, we do have a neutral position in the market where we will not be in either long or short but on the sidelines.

      We call this our filtered approach and the concept is very simple and that is to weed out the bad trades.

      If you need any help with this I recommend that you contact our support team at su*****@in*.com or call 410 867-2100 extension 104.

      All the best,
      Adam

  9. Hello Adam..

    I do enjoy your videos and look forward to them in my inbox everyday. However, I just started my trading career and education. Its probably in my own best interest to quit watching your videos, because they DO bias me towards your point of view, whether they're trade triangles (which, like ALL proprietary systems, seem to work until they DONT) or whatever. And as YOU surely know, the best thing a trader can do for himself is quit listening to other traders and use his own eyes and brain to decipher the facts for themselves and plan his own trades.

    Nevertheless, thank you for the time and effort you take in educating your viewers. But alas, its time to say goodbye.

    Thank you Adam,
    Loren

  10. Quite frankly I have to agree with many of the the disappointed peoples comments. In one of your recent videos you were very clear that one should currently be in cash and that the market was probably headed lower. How can you be bullish now? Volume is still very low on up moves for the S & P and Dow. Global and US economic news is horrible. Since the run up from March it appears that all charts and technical patterns are useless because simply the fix was in to make the market go higher. Could you please say if the fix is in and that is why you are long? I respect your knowledge and insight and I will be watching future videos to decide if I become a subscribing member. For right now I am not convinced that any charts work in a manipulated market like we have. Every time it looks like the camels back will be broken the manipulators step in to save the day. I am not looking to short the market. I just want a fair value entry point to get in. This stinking market has never pulled back to reasonable valuations allowing me or anyone else that knows its over valued the opportunity to get in. Why in the world would I want to go in at these price levels? Get us some commentary that justifies going long at these levels for fundamental reasons. Going in on a market where the fundamentals are in the opposite direction of the trend is very dangerous. Is the fix in and for how long do you see it going?

    1. Luis,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      When I made this post I was referring to our trade triangle technology. Personally I'm not a fan of the stock market at this point in time. I believe that we are close to the Fibonacci retracement levels and I'm going to wait until I see more confirmation and consolidation before allowing myself to personally get into this market.

      I'm also going to wait until the trade triangles give a negative signal before going short. Let's see how things play out.

      All the best,
      Adam

  11. 0 risk trading is 100% strategy using stop orders. Buying averages also applies to selling up and down.

  12. Toni,

    Thank you for your feedback. I'd also like to thank you for confirming what I said in my previous videos.

    Now, it's amazing to me and to a lot of traders I know what is keeping this market up.

    Having said that you don't fight the tape. The trend in the equity markets is up and in one of my later videos I give exact levels where our trade triangle technology will kick in. When that happens and a red sell monthly trade triangle, kicks in you can bet I'll go short.

    All the best,

    Adam

  13. Adam
    It's true. In the videos you don't tell about a Bearish triangle indication. But the thin air, the great depression story and many other intrepretations look so bearish convincing that many of "us" don't care about TT technology confirmation and made some move. Simply followed the Guru, the smart insider or whatever we think of you. That's the base of the confusion. I think I am saved out of the markets, but now it turns to be wrong?. Well, it's a big surprise to see such an inconsistency. But I think you have made a good point giving enough explanations about the mechanical thing and so on. so I still beleive.
    Thank you anyway, on my part you are forgiven if things turn out to be positive for long. It's my sole responsability to be a believer.
    kind regards, Toni

  14. Mark,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    The are two elements that we discuss in our videos. One is based on other technical indicators, such as Fibonacci, MACD and so forth. The other is based on trade triangle technology which is totally mathematical.

    The positions shown in this posting are based on our trade triangle signals. Even though several of my earlier videos were indicating Fibonacci retracements, we never had confirmation that the major trend had turned down based on our monthly trade triangles. I think if you go back and visit those videos you will see what I'm talking about.

    All the best,
    Adam

  15. Wow,I am confused.I have been following these videos trying to decide if I should subscribe-and all the recent videos on the stock indexes have had a profoundly bearish take.I remember one where the recent dow was compared to the 1929-1932 dow-so I was pretty surprised to see long positions posted for the indexes.It seems the triangles are in opposition to the oft-quoted fibonnaci,macd,etc.I guess we shall see what the future holds.Thanks,Mark.

  16. Hey Adam,

    I understand people are confused about the recent S&P500 video.
    You made it clear the S&P was in a downtrend based on your analyses.
    I bought some put-contracts but lost 60% of my money. Im not saying its your fault (I mean I bought them myself) Im just saying I bought them following your explanation of the market. What do you recommend, sell the stuff with the 60% loss or keep them waiting for the S%P to fall?
    These are april puts strike 106.
    Thanks.
    ps I must say I forgot the first rule of trading, the stoploss 😉
    So Im certainly not blaming you 😉

    1. Marco,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      I'm not sure that I have ever said that the S&P500 was in a downtrend in any of my recent videos. What I have tried to do is to show the potential of a possible pullback in this market. I also stated that we have not got confirmation without monthly red trade triangle. Only then would we become bearish on this index. I even gave some specific levels but if broken but put the S&P 500 is downtrend.

      You may want to go back and re-watch some of the videos if you have time and see what I am saying.

      All the best,
      Adam

  17. Hi Adam,

    Couldn't agree more with Roger's comment above. All indicators, Fibinacci, Trend lines etc - no matter which one you choose, are there as pointers for consideration of how Mr Market is feeling, sometimes we read him right, sometimes we read him wrong - you just have to make sure your stop system is adhered to. Great videos Adam, really helpful, especially when you grasp the difference between what the trade triangles are telling you (mechanical) and personal interpretation of the future using indicators (an art rather than science), especially difficult in sideways movements.
    Many thanks, Chris.

  18. Adam - I am reading monthly, weekly and daily all long on S&P, Gold and oil. What makes you say sideways on Gold.

    1. Gajendra,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      My comments were written on Friday the last business day of February. Since then the gold signal has changed to positive.

      All the best,
      Adam

  19. Interesting. This is a U turn. Recent video bearish everything: equity, gold, silver, oil, ..., and now bullish most of them.

    1. Yuemin,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      I'm not sure you would call it a U turn, rather it is the trade triangle technology that we're discussing in today's posting.

      Many of the videos that I do are based on other technical indicators. What I do say is wait for confirmation with the trade triangles rather than trying to jump out ahead of potential signal.

      As I said before, I show you the potential of what could happen given a confirmation of our trade trial technology. In the case of the indices we have never seen confirmation on a monthly red trade triangle on the downside. One can only really get bearish if and when that takes place. Sooner or later it will take place.

      All the best,

      Adam

  20. Hello Adam. I want to thank you for your videos. I have been trading for over 10 years and your videos and analysis are the best I have come across. The videos give tremendous value in technical analysis and I find them extremely useful and interesting.

    The points you make about the trade triangles, the finer elements in your videos are well understood by me and those that pay attention. In fact, you are always careful to point out the different purpose of the trade triangles in every video I have seen.

    Please keep the videos coming. I will be signing up in the future for sure!

    Thanks again, Roger

  21. the chile earthquake in a nutshell. the quake. human and property loss nearest the beach. mining, inland, will report no major damage first. but, the mining business has the best equipment and employees. their dozers and good workers will be pulled off to aid in the rescue of beachcombers. chile is no different than any other nation during a crisis. those that work, know how to get things done also have the equipment to do it. sure chile has vast resources, so does the u.s.

    the mines will lose some workers and equipment to the crisis indirectly. they probably will make a statement, when this becomes known, that their production is down due to the quake, but, in their mines (minds), the quake has cause new fissures of previously unknown quantities of precious resources.

    always remember that charts map history, but they do not make history.

  22. I've been following your trade triangles quite closely and carefully. I must say I'm pretty disappointed...They are usually "after the fact" and way TOO LATE. It's normally time bo start buying when your system shows sell signals.

    I would greatly appreciate it and I'm sure all other subscribers would also if you can publish the BEST WAY to use your trade triangles...Thanks in advance.

    1. Richard,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      We have extensive work on how to use the trade triangles in the markets. We have different approaches for equities, futures and forex.

      The key to using trade triangles is to use our filter technique which helps remove, but not eliminate most bad trades. If you have any questions and you'd like to speak to our helpful support staff please feel free to give us a call. This is all part of your membership. You can reach us at 410-867-2100 extension 104. For e-mail support use su*****@in*.com.

      I think once you see how we filter the trades your opinion of our trade triangles technology will change completely.

      All the best,
      Adam

    2. I use a similar system and work hard to beat my own signals. If I can do so, the trades typically make money. However, i sometimes blow it. The confirmation does not come and I'm in trouble. On the other hand, the signal can be wrong too. Nature of the game. One has to be realistic.

      It takes time to confirm one's expectation of extended moves in any direction. Markets do trend, but they also trade. Even with signal confirmation, I continue to look for further confirmation. Surprises do happen. Have you heard of Long Term Capital Management? Pretty smart hombres in that particular gambit. You might want to take a look.

      Furthermore, I have watched successful traders win time and time again for years, (This is no exaggeration.) only to lose everything on a huge surprise. 1987 was such an occasion. (You might also want to check out the "black swan" notion.)

      Go with the probabilities and you'll be okay most of the time.

  23. Roberto,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    The videos that I produce are for educational purposes and point out areas in the market that I see that could potentially change in the very near term.

    The trade triangle technology that we developed for MarketClub is a mechanical system and is based on a algorithm. This algorithm does not take into consideration other factors like Fibonacci numbers or fundamentals.

    What we stated in the post was that the positions are based on our trade triangle technology and not on any videos that we produce showing Fibonacci and other technical elements in the marketplace.

    I apologize if there was any confusion in this matter.

    All the best,
    Adam

  24. Adam,

    Thank you for your regular blogs but having followed them for the last couple of months I am a bit confused. I recall that you did a crude oil video recently where the trade triangles gave a sell signal at $72. Also you have recently done videos that were showing fairly negative signals on the 3 indexes. However you are now saying that you are long on all indexes and oil.

    I appreciate that things in the market can change very quickly but could you explain how the trade triangles can be used to give advance warning of price action if you are using monthly and weekly time periods, so as to avoid chasing short term trading ranges and being on the wrong side of them.

    Many thanks,
    David

    1. David,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      To clarify, we show you exactly how the trade triangles work and how you filter trades. The videos are for educational purposes and cover other technical aspects that are not included in our trade triangle algorithm.

      You may or may not be familiar with our "World Commodity Portfolio" or our Perfect Portfolio". Both of these portfolios totally mechanical and follow the the trade triangles to the letter. There is no interpretation in either of these portfolios.

      The videos on the other hand are meant to be educational and to look at markets do we think potentially could be changing.

      I hope this clears up any confusion that you might have about trade triangle technology and my interpretation of the charts.

      All the best,
      Adam

      1. Hi Adam, could you give us some links to info on these two portfolios?

        Remember the Perfect Portfolio, but not the World Commodity Portfolio.

        Thanks!

        Jab

  25. Thanks for your quick reply, unfortunately it is not wiping out the bitter taste... Video where on "real time" data and not on a simulation to show how to use the great tools provided by your system. And you sounded quite convincing in them!
    Roberto

  26. Roberto,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    The positions I showed are based on our trade triangle technology and not necessarily on some of the videos that we put out showing you how to use Fibonacci and other technical indicators we follow.

    All the best,
    Adam

  27. Long on Dow, SP500 and Nasdaq?
    And all the fuss about Fibonacci, thin air, Déjà Vu, MACD pointing down... and so on contained in your recent videos?
    Thanks
    Roberto

  28. Today copper is key. The Chilean copper mines have not been damaged from their unfortunate demise, the copper mines are in the north sections of the country and the earthquake was situated in the south of Chilie, so production will not be greatly affected and the US$ (long as Market Club/INO predicts - B/S depends on analysis) is the metals tool of trade. The mines were not greatly, if any, affected by the earthquake.

    Today's INO Trend Analysis is right on, thank you Mr. Hewison. Your educational and traders tech support is invaluable. I look forward to reporting back with my pesonal 52 week high - thanks to you and your work!

  29. Looks like the crude market is agreeing with you with the break of 80.51 that suggests the rise from 69.50 has resumed and intraday bias is on the upside for 83.95 high next.

    Thanks for posting Adam!

  30. Jabalong,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    As I mentioned at the bottom of the posting which was written on Friday at the close of business, nothing is written in granite.

    You are indeed correct there are three green triangles which gives a positive trend on the gold market.

    All the best,
    Adam

  31. Hi Adam,

    Does this neutral gold view above reflect that on Sunday the daily triangle on gold turned up/green?

    With three green triangles now, the trade triangle technology seems to be positive on gold at the moment.

    Thanks,
    Jab

  32. Hello,
    In a video a few weeks back. you said crude would fall back. Something change?

    1. Sanjay,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      We have a very weak +60 rating with our trade triangles. For the past seven or eight days this market has been moving sideways. I still believe we're in a broad trading range.

      Lets see how things work out.

      All the best,
      Adam

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