Yesterday, the market was remarkably quiet and lulled everybody into a sense of complacency. Well, I'm sorry I'm not going to drink the Kool-Aid because I still think we are going to see a push to the downside in the markets.
With all of the Trade Triangles in a negative mode and the weekly pattern indicating stocks should finish lower for the week, I see little to get excited about.
Everyone is waiting for Thursday and to see what the Fed is going to do. Even the best minds in the industry are split on what the Fed is likely to do on Thursday. My view is that they are just going to leave everything the way it is. The Fed is like a deer frozen in the headlights of a car and incapable of moving one way or another. What I suspect they will say is that they need more data, which I think is a cop out.
As I mentioned in yesterday's blog post, the nine week rhythm in the market will eventually change whether that's this week or a month from now, it is hard to tell. But as traders you tend to want to trade when the odds are in your favor. Here's why I think the odds are in our favor.
#1. All Trade Triangles are negative on the major indices.
#2. The weekly pattern suggests a lower week this week.
#3. Thursday's Fed meeting will be a nonevent.
Yesterday, I also gave you the key levels where I thought the market would begin to accelerate to the downside, if those levels were broken. I want to repeat those levels again today.
DOW (INDEX:DJI) 16,200
S&P 500 (CME:SP500) 1,937
NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) 4,746
You may have heard this before but there's an old market saying that's been around forever and it goes like this, "When in doubt get out" or "When in doubt stay out". That is the kind of market we are in right now.
You need conviction to trade, if it's not there, don't trade.
In today's video, I will be looking at the usual suspects and seeing if there are any changes in those markets to warrant closer inspection.
Lastly, be patient and stay disciplined.
Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Well, just speaking very generally, you should never drink anybody's Kool Aid whenever the facts are not one of the ingredients. 🙂
Strange. I always thought that trade triangle analysis WAS the kool-aid..
Can you offer some analyses on stock gdxj .thanks
Jason,
The stock gdxj could be building a base but it is too early to say if that is the case. Both of our Trade Triangles the monthly and weekly are negative indicating that the major trend remains to the downside.
I hope this answers your question.
Adam