Week To Forget But A Month To Remember

Sure, this week has been rough for traders and the markets overall, but it was a great month. Weeks like this are reminders to separate yourself from the recent daily volatility and look at the long-term trend. How do you do this? I'll show you in today's video.

As for the overall markets, let's get into it. Friday was as volatile as they come, with the Dow dropping -1.5% or -475 pts. The S&P 500 had lost -2.5% but pushed back strong into the close but fell just short of finishing in the green with a loss of -.48% or -18.49 pts, and while the NASDAQ shed -3.5% early in the day, it also bounced back to post a daily gain of +.56% or +72.91.

The S&P 500 is down -2.45% for the week, on pace for its second negative week in a row. The DOW has fallen -1.8%, and the NASDAQ way underperformed this week with its worst week since October, losing -4.9% on the week.

Now, this is where looking at the long-term trends can give you some sanity. Continue reading "Week To Forget But A Month To Remember"

Yellen Calls For More Stimulus

The stock market was on the move higher in early trading Friday after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a large Covid-19 relief package is needed for a full recovery in the U.S. However, it has slipped to a mixed-mode as it headed into afternoon trading to close out the week with the DOW gaining roughly +48%, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fighting to stay in positive territory for the day.

Yellen told CNBC Thursday after the bell that more stimulus is necessary even as some economic data suggested a rebound is already underway. She added a $1.9 trillion stimulus deal could help the U.S. get back to full employment in a year. Continue reading "Yellen Calls For More Stimulus"

Records, Records and More Records

Stocks will end this record-setting week at or near record levels, with the S&P 500 gaining +.9% for the week, the DOW +.8%, and the NASDAQ outperforming with a gain of +1.4%. The records set this week by the three main indexes are as follows, S&P 500 - 1,931.50, DOW - 31,543.82, and the NASDAQ - 14,109.12.

On a weekly level, the market started hot on Monday but has steadily cooled off into the close on Friday after the record levels were achieved. As we head into the finale, the S&P 500 is looking at a daily gain of roughly +.10, the DOW has been waffling between gains and losses and is down about -.11% as I recorded this video, and the NASDAQ is up the same as the S&P 500 with an increase of +.10%. Continue reading "Records, Records and More Records"

Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?

Some investors believe that the price of Bitcoin could hit $100k. In this post, I'll share some measurements I made in the bitcoin chart to see if there is some evidence for such strong optimism.

There is a logarithmic (log) monthly chart of bitcoin below. I chose the log scale to show you the coin's relative performance. It will reveal the different angle of view on the price dynamics for you.

Monthly Bitcoin Chart

We can highlight two completed large moves to the upside marked with numbers accordingly. On the right side of each move, there are light blue statistics windows showing how much, how long, and how sharp the move was. Continue reading "Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?"

Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number

The Labor Department said the U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January, slightly below the 50,000 payrolls expected by economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, better than projections of 6.7%. December's numbers were revised much lower, with the month posting a loss of 227,000 from the initial reading of 140,000 jobs lost.

After suffering their worst week in months, the major indexes will wrap up the week with five straight days of gains ending with their best week since November. The S&P 500 will post a weekly gain of +4.7%, the DOW +3.9%, and the NASDAQ will outperform with a significant gain of +6%.

The U.S. dollar continues to push higher with a weekly gain of +1% and trading back above $91 for the first time since November. This week's gain will mark back-to-back weekly gains for the dollar. Continue reading "Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number"