There Is Only One Word to Describe Q3: Volatility

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Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 30th of September.

It's here! We've reached crunch time for the markets and portfolio managers everywhere. It is not often you have the weekly, monthly and quarterly markets all ending on the same day, but Q3 is playing out to that scenario.

I think there is only one word to describe Q3: volatility. Volatility ruled the markets and has pushed many investors to the sidelines. Conservatively, it is better to be in cash than be long the equity markets at the present time.

I find it hard to believe that some of the pundits say we can go into defensive stocks. My question would be why? Why be in the market when it's going down? It just makes no sense to me.

The philosophy behind our Trade Triangle Technology is very simple. We want to be long the market when it is going up and either short or out of the market when it is going down. The reality is the market can only do three things: it can go up, down, or sideways, that's it! How many things in life do you know that are that simple?

Yesterday, we talked about the major trends in the markets and how important it is to know the direction of the trend for each and every market you have an interest in.

In today's video, we will be focusing on the 6 markets we track everyday in a slightly different way.

As always, our goal is to share with you ideas that have been used by generations of successful traders. I'm sure you have heard the expression, "that there is nothing new under the sun" and that expression can be applied perfectly to trading. With nothing new under the sun, using some tried and true methods that I am sharing with you today, I'm sure you too will be successful trading the markets.

Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011. Continue reading "There Is Only One Word to Describe Q3: Volatility"

Do You See the Trees In a Forest, Or Do You Just See the Forest?

Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Thursday the 29th of September.

Do you see the trees in a forest, or do you just see the forest?

There is a saying that goes like this “can't see the forest for the trees” is a reference to people who get so involved with the details of an issue that they lose sight of the big picture.

If your involved in the markets, it is easy to fall into the trap of just looking at the minute or hourly charts, rather than considering the market as a whole. When you can't see the market for the minutia, it means that you are deeply involved in a situation, and you are perhaps focusing too much on the inner workings of the market, and not enough on the big trends.

With all of this talk of problems in Greece, defaults, contagion and a host of other problems in Europe, it is easy for traders to get distracted, and not see the forest for the trees.

The most important element in trading in my opinion, is the direction the major trend for that market. It doesn't really matter what the news is, if the market is doing something else. As traders I believe we have to look at the forest in this case the big trends in the marketplace.

Let's look at them now: S&P 500 index–major trend down. Gold-major trend up. Metals–major trend down. Crude oil–major trend down. Dollar index–major trend up. CRB index–major trend down.

So, there you have it, all the major trends in all the markets we are dealing with right now. Everything else is just individual trees, that don't mean a heck of a lot in the big picture.

It takes a tremendous amount of energy to move a market and change a major trend. This kind of energy normally does not happen in one or two days. As they say in statistics, one data point does not make a trend.

Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011. Continue reading "Do You See the Trees In a Forest, Or Do You Just See the Forest?"

Where Will the Markets Finish Q3?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 28th of September.

What does the word austerity mean to you?

"Austerity: noun, the trait of great self denial, especially refraining from worldly pleasures, strict economy."

It would seem that the meaning of the word "austerity" has been lost in translation in Europe. How can you expand and grow an economy when the very meaning of austerity is the opposite of expansion? There is no way Greece or any country can grow their economy in an austerity program. They won't be able to pay back the massive amount of money they owe everyone.

What we are seeing now is pure political theater. Everyone talks a good game, but unfortunately there are no easy answers or solutions to a problem that took years to grow into a global problem.

We are just two days short of the end of Q3 and the end of the month. How are these markets going to close for the quarter and for the week? Depending on which markets you are looking at, most markets are lower for the month, with the exception of the dollar index. The dollar index could possibly close at a seven-month high on the monthly charts.

One thing is for certain, Europe is not the United States of America. In Europe there are too many areas of national pride for each individual country. I always believed this national trait would act as the Achilles' heel in a euro zone economy. My view has not changed.

Can the banks be saved? We will let the markets answer that question for us.

Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011. Continue reading "Where Will the Markets Finish Q3?"

How Much Does It Cost to Create a Job?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Tuesday, the 27th of September.

How much does it cost to create a job?

According to Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, each job that is created by the "American Jobs Act" would cost taxpayers about $200,000.

I think that most small businesses could produce three times as many jobs on the same amount of money. It seems the government is jumping into an area where it has proven in the past to have no expertise.

You would think the government would argue that it's going to cost a lot less than $200,000 to create each new job, but according to Timothy Geithner in a recent ABC interview, he didn't dispute that number at all!

We have been saying the markets were very oversold and ripe for a rally. I believe the rally we have seen in the last two days is basically a short covering rally. Last week, we saw a tremendous liquidation of all risk assets across the board in most markets. This week, we're seeing some of those short positions being covered with very little selling above the market. This is all predicated on a potential solution to the Greek/European problem.

Mr. Geithner also claimed in the same interview that if Europe went under, the US banks would stand to lose $41 billion. So here we are again, borrowing money to bail out the banks. We used to have legislation on the books that would have prevented the current problem with the banks. That law was put into place I believe, right after the great depression and was lifted because all the bankers felt that it would never happen again. Well, history repeats itself, just like the markets do. There is an old Hungarian proverb that says, "The past is the teacher of the future." This has never been more true than it is today.

Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011. Continue reading "How Much Does It Cost to Create a Job?"

All Eyes Continue To Focus On Europe

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 26th of September.

Here we are on the first day of the last week of September, with the end of Q3 approaching on Friday. Are the equity markets building a base to go higher? Or is this just a pause before we start heading back down?

All eyes continue to be focused on the European problem, especially Greece. We still believe Greece will default on their debt. And we still think that the politicians are looking for an easy way out of this economic malaise, unwilling to accept the consequences of their actions.

Last week we saw all the markets under pressure. For the last couple of days we've seen some minor support coming to the equity markets. And just today we have seen support come into the metals markets at much lower levels than most folks anticipated.

As always we rely on our Trade Triangle Technology which continues to point the way to profits.

Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011. Continue reading "All Eyes Continue To Focus On Europe"