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Co-founder of MarketClub
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Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits 'flaw'

From our Media Partner Associated Press

Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits 'flaw' this minute
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and MARCY GORDON
Associated Press Writers

(AP:WASHINGTON) Badgered by lawmakers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denied the nation's economic crisis was his fault on Thursday but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a "state of shocked disbelief."

Greenspan, who stepped down in 2006, called the banking and housing chaos a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami" that led to a breakdown in how the free market system functions. And he warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for "many months."

Gloomy economic reports backed him up. New jobless claims soared to just under 500,000 for last week, and Goldman Sachs, Chrysler and Xerox all said they were cutting thousands more workers. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial bounced erratically all day before finishing up 172 points _ after a two-day drop of nearly 750.

The financial crisis even prompted the Republican Greenspan, a staunch believer in free markets, to propose that government consider tougher regulations, including requiring financial firms that package mortgages into securities to keep a portion as a check on quality.

He said other regulatory changes should be considered, too, in such areas as fraud.

Also looking for solutions, another banking regulator told Congress the government was working on a loan-guarantee plan that could help many homeowners escape foreclosure as part of the $700 billion bailout legislation. That plan is being discussed by the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, who is pushing the idea.

Greenspan's interrogation by the House Oversight Committee was a far cry from his 18 1/2 years as Fed chairman, when he presided over the longest economic boom in the country's history. He was viewed as a free-market icon on Wall Street and held in respect bordering on awe by most members of Congress.

Not now. At an often contentious four-hour hearing, Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary John Snow and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox were repeatedly accused by Democrats on the committee of pursuing an anti-regulation agenda that set the stage for the biggest financial crisis in 70 years.

"The list of regulatory mistakes and misjudgments is long," panel chairman Henry Waxman declared.

Greenspan, 82, acknowledged under questioning that he had made a "mistake" in believing that banks, operating in their own self-interest, would do what was necessary to protect their shareholders and institutions. Greenspan called that "a flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works."

He acknowledged that he had also been wrong in rejecting fears that the five-year housing boom was turning into an unsustainable speculative bubble that could harm the economy when it burst. Greenspan maintained during that period that home prices were unlikely to post a significant decline nationally because housing was a local market.

He said Thursday that he held to that belief because until the current housing slump there had never been such a significant decline in prices nationwide. He said the current financial crisis had "turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined."

Greenspan's much-anticipated appearance before the House panel came as the Senate Banking Committee held its own hearing on what the government is doing now to get out of the mess.

Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari, who is overseeing the $700 billion financial rescue effort that passed Congress on Oct. 3, said the administration was not only working to get federal purchases of bank stock started quickly but also the program to mop up troubled mortgage-related assets. He also said the government was working to make sure that directives in the legislation to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure were being addressed.

Kashkari said the plan could include setting standards that banks should follow for reworking mortgages to make them more affordable. He said the administration was considering a recommendation to provide government loan guarantees to cover the reworked mortgages to make the program more attractive to banks.

"We are passionate about doing everything we can to avoid preventable foreclosures," Kashkari told the committee.

The FDIC's Bair told the same Senate panel that the government needs to do more to help tens of thousands of people avoid foreclosure.

She said the FDIC was working "closely and creatively" with the Treasury Department to come up with a plan.

Greenspan was asked to defend a variety of actions he took as Federal Reserve chairman _ resisting recommendations to use the Fed's powers to crack down on subprime mortgages, for one. And opposing efforts to impose regulations on derivatives, the complex financial instruments that include credit default swaps, which have also figured prominently in the current crisis.

He said that outside of credit default swaps, the bulk of financial derivatives had not caused major problems. He said the boom in subprime lending occurred because of the huge demand for investment opportunities in a global economy, and he blamed the crash on a failure by investors to properly assess the risks from such mortgages, which went to borrowers with weak credit.

As for firms that package mortgages into securities, he said, "As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue."

On the billions of dollars of losses suffered by financial institutions because of their investments in subprime mortgages, Greenspan said he had been shocked by the failure of banking officials to protect their shareholders from their bad loan decisions.

"A critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down," Greenspan said. "I still do not fully understand why it happened."

SEC Chairman Cox told the House panel that "somewhere in this terrible mess, laws were broken." And Snow said that lawmakers should have responded more quickly to his pleas for stronger regulation for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government last month.

In the meantime, Kashkari, the Treasury official overseeing the bailout program, said there has been much progress, resulting in "numerous signs of improvement in our markets and in the confidence in our financial institutions." Still, he cautioned, "the markets remain fragile."

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

It hasn't sunk in yet, and maybe it never will.

It hasn't sunk in yet, and maybe it never will.

For most people who've lost 30% or 40% of their IRAs or 401(k) plans, it just looks that way on paper. In other words, it hasn't sunk in yet. The reality is that when this sinks in, and it will, the realization will have a significant negative impact on the psyche of the US consumer and the US economy.

This is the first real bear market we have seen in a generation and maybe the start of the greatest bear market we have seen since the Great Depression. All of these distressed securities have to be worked out and priced accordingly in the marketplace and that is going to take time. Right now, there is no reason to jump in and buy stocks because they look cheap.

The technical and fundamental trends are clearly down in all the equity markets as the de-leveraging of the hedge funds continues. You may remember I made a post some time ago about hedge funds. I said that in the end "they will devour their young." That's exactly what's happening right now.

This is without a doubt an extremely challenging time for both the US and world economy. There are no easy answers. China's economy was built on manufacturing and selling products primarily to the United States, but also the rest of the world. The global slowdown will dramatically impact their economy.

The fact that crude oil has crashed and lost almost half its value in a very short time has helped the consumers shake the real fear that rests in their subconscious psyche. Will lower gas prices jump-start the economy if consumers see more disposable income in their pockets? Even if lower gas prices come to fruition, will consumers commit to spending the extra money?

The greatest fear right now has to be fear itself. I discussed this in one of my previous posts and I believe it hasn't yet sunk in to the general public just how bad the economy is.

If we see the recent lows in the equity markets taken out, we could see another huge capitulation to new lows. If that occurs, both professional and amateur investors alike will be scrambling for the exits at the same time.

So what's an investor to do? I have blogged in previous posts that these are not markets you can buy and hold forever. Unfortunately those days are long gone. The classic fall-back line for all stockbrokers is, "if it doesn't go your way, it will work itself out in the long-term." Did General Motors (NYSE_GM) work itself out over the long-term? NO. Has GE (NYSE_GE) worked itself out over the long term? NO. This can be said for thousands of other stocks that have not gone up "in the long-term." So remember when your broker tells you to, "hold it for the long-term...it'll come back," you might want to cut your losses early.

The key thing to trading and investing is knowing what the markets are doing at all times. Right now the market remains negative. Why would anyone go into defensive stocks just to be in the market? If the trend is down in a so-called defensive stock, why would you want to hold on to that stock? It just doesn't make much sense in my book.

I believe we are going into a prolonged, protracted time when stocks don't do much of anything. People are fearful right now. Over the years we've lived the good life here in the United States. Credit was easy, people thought the money carousel would go on forever. Well, guess what? The world has been playing musical chairs and when the music stopped (read that as the credit) there are no chairs to sit on. We are left standing, not sure what to do next.

I am normally an very optimistic person, but at the moment, I feel an economic chill settling over the world for quite some time.

Having said all of this, the perception of the marketplace can change at anytime. When that does, you need to change with it. You can no longer be passive in these types of markets. The individuals who do remain passive and hold for the "long-term" are now way behind the eight ball. Unfortunately, many may never recover.

Mark my words, there will be some fantastic opportunities in the weeks, months and years ahead. But, those opportunities will only go to the well-prepared, disciplined individuals traders who believe in what they're doing in the market. That's the only way successful investors will succeed in my humble opinion.

Best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Top Yielding Debt Free Stocks

When the market corrects like it does many people see value in stocks. But what about compaines that have low stock prices compared to their history...but a ton of debt? It's often hard to find those companies with good potential without a lot of debt. Today I've asked Stockerblog.com to come and give us some insight into potential markets. Please consult with your broker, Trade Triangles, or your preferred technical indicator before making any trades. These are not trade recommendations...just great hints!

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Top Yielding Debt Free Stocks

With the extreme market volatility that has been taking place lately, investors are looking toward high yield stocks, so they have income coming in while waiting for their stocks to appreciate. In addition, investors prefer companies with no debt for additional safety. Combine those two features together, and look for the stocks with low PE ratios and low PEG ratios and you get the following list.

United Online, Inc. (UNTD) is an Internet and media services companies which owns the NetZero and Juno brands. The stock has a PE of 10 , a PEG ratio of 0.86 , and pays a yield of 9.84%.

Williams Pipeline Partners L.P. (WMZ) is a natural gas transportation and storage company. The stock has a PE of 2 , a PEG ratio of 0.24 , and pays a yield of 9.29%.

Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners L.P. (PSE) owns oil and gas properties. The stock has a PE of 5 , a PEG ratio of 0.68 , and pays a yield of 8.56%.

Starlims Technologies Limited (LIMS) creates and markets laboratory information management systems software solutions. The stock has a PE of 9 , a PEG ratio of 0.60 , and pays a yield of 7.17%.

NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) is a provider of weight management and fitness products and services. The stock has a PE of 6 , a PEG ratio of 0.34 , and pays a yield of 5.86%.

Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (MXIM) makes and sells linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits. The stock has a PE of 14 , a PEG ratio of 0.92 , and pays a yield of 5.71%.

Electro Rent Corporation (ELRC) rents, leases, and sells electronic equipment. The stock has a PE of 15 , a PEG ratio of 0.99 , and pays a yield of 5.22%.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) is a provider of onshore contract drilling services. The stock has a PE of 6 , a PEG ratio of 0.57 , and pays a yield of 5.10%.

Christopher & Banks Corporation (CBK) designs and markets women's apparel. The stock has a PE of 12 , a PEG ratio of 0.88 , and pays a yield of 4.67%.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a provider of automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The stock has a PE of 7 , a PEG ratio of 0.49 , and pays a yield of 4.36%.

If you like high yield stocks, you should check out the the High Yield Utility stocks and the Monthly Dividend Stocks at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com. You should also take a look at Top Yielding Defense and Aerospace Stocks.

Author owns UNTD.

By Stockerblog.com