It's Still Not Time To Buy A Marijuana ETF

The month of October was terrible for the marijuana Exchange Traded Fund MG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ). After some months in which we witnessed the share price of the marijuana ETF climb higher, we saw it drop like a rock following the October 17 date for the legalization of marijuana in Canada. For October, MJ was down just slightly more than 27%.

MJ rose and fell due to some big winners followed by big losers in the marijuana industry. But the problem is, the moves we have seen by these stocks have for the most part been based solely on speculation and rumors. We have not received an earnings report indicating profits from Canada were going through the roof; we receive any real meaningful information from the companies themselves that would have indicated now was the time to buy because the stock prices were just going to run higher. It was all just speculation and hype that was causing stock prices to move higher. I recently warned investors that now was not the time to jump on the MJ train, back when the ETF was at loftier levels, but now that is has fallen, you should remain on the sidelines and see how things play out in the industry.

The first reason of why is because of the recent decline the industry has gone through. The majority of the drop has been due to nothing more than profit-taking after the boom, ‘hype cycle’ played out leading up to the October 17 legalization of marijuana in Canada. Common sense would say the marijuana stocks would climb higher after the law went into effect. But all too often, the opposite happens because the ‘hype’ over the recent change dies off after the actual event takes place, and no new information comes available to keep the ‘hype train’ rolling. Savvy investors bought shares of the marijuana stocks ahead of the legalization date, road those stocks higher due to the “hype” and then sold them after the October 17th date when the catalyst for the move higher played out.

Which leads us to reason two of why you should stay on the sidelines. Continue reading "It's Still Not Time To Buy A Marijuana ETF"

Marijuana ETF On Wild Ride in September, Will It Continue?

As we close in on October 17th, the official day that Canada legalizes marijuana, potential investment opportunities in the industry continue to attract new money, and share prices have ballooned. But the real question is whether or not the boat has left you at the dock or if there is still time to get in on this party.

Anyone that follows the stock market has undoubtedly heard of the top few marijuana stocks by now. Companies like Tilray (TLRY), Canopy Growth (CGC), or Aurora Cannabis (ACBFF), just to name a few have been highly reported on over the last few weeks, increasing interest and moving their share prices. These companies have seen outside investments from alcohol companies, and interest in their business’s increase as both investors and other industries try to position themselves for what some believe will be the ‘next’ great investment frontier.

Tilray, which just went public in July, has seen its share price go from below $30 to as high as $250 in mid-September. That jump, in particular, sent the price of the only U.S. listed marijuana ETF, ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) to its highest level ever on September 20th at $43.01. After closing August at just $33.48, on September 20th MJ was up 28% for the month but ended up closing the month down just slightly from that level at $40.05, which by the way was still a 19.6% gain in September.

It should also be noted that MJ was a top ETF performer in August, rising 27.7%. In August MJ got a boost from the alcohol companies, Constellation Brands (STZ) announcing it was increasing its stock in Canopy. Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) reporting it had entered into a partnership with Hydropothecary Corp to create a cannabis-infused beverage, and Diageo (DEO) apparently being in talks with a few different Canadian based marijuana companies about either partnering or buying stakes in their businesses.

MJ’s performance in August continued in September, but are we going to see the same trend in October or even further out in 2019? Continue reading "Marijuana ETF On Wild Ride in September, Will It Continue?"

Marijuana ETFs Aren't Too 'High' Just Yet

With Canada set to legalize the recreational use of marijuana on October 17th, marijuana-related stocks and thus marijuana ETFs built around these equities have been on the rise. Many investors believe the marijuana industry will the next big growth industry since the drug has never been legal, but known to be rather popular with those looking to relax. Not only have individual investors been looking to the industry as a way to grow their wealth, but the alcohol industry has recently shown serious interest in the industry.

In August we saw Constellation Brands (STZ) increase its stake in Canopy Growth (CGC), we saw Molson Coors (TAP) partner up with Hydropothecary Corp. (HEXO) and there were reports that Tilray (TLRY) was in talks with Diageo (DEO). The rumors that Diageo and recently IPO’d Tilray where in talks has helped TLRY jump more than 100% since going public in mid-July of this year. While the moves from TLRY, HEXO, and CGC have all been astonishing in the past few months, the fact remains that the industry as a whole can still go higher in the future.

When marijuana became legal in Colorado and then California, the industry experienced a significant increase in demand literally overnight. That demand is once again going to jump on October 17th when Canada becomes legal. Furthermore, with the trend appearing to be taking hold not only around the country but the world, it's not hard to see how within maybe the next five to ten years from now, some of the marijuana stocks will be as big as the top alcohol companies.

But, that is where the problem rests. Trying to determine today, which companies are going to dominate the marijuana market in the coming years is not only a daunting task but perhaps more like gambling than investing.

Luckily though, we have a few ETFs that you can pick from today. Continue reading "Marijuana ETFs Aren't Too 'High' Just Yet"