Navigating Volatility - Risk-Controlled Portfolio

Controlling portfolio beta, which measures overall systemic risk of a portfolio compared to the market, on the whole, is essential as these markets continue to display bouts of extreme volatility. Containing volatility while generating superior returns relative to the market is the goal with an options-based portfolio. Mitigating risk within a portfolio can be achieved via a blended options-based approach where cash is held in conjunction with stock positions and an options component. Options alone cannot be the sole driver of portfolio appreciation; however, options can play a critical component in the overall portfolio construction to control risk and volatility.

Generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns is the core of the options-based portfolio strategy. Options can enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. Options allow one to generate consistent monthly income in a high probability manner in various market scenarios. Over the past 24 months (April 2020 – March 2022), 419 trades were placed and closed. An options win rate of 97% was achieved with an average ROI per trade of 4.4% and an overall option premium capture of 50% while outperforming the Dow Jones throughout these two years. The performance of an options-based portfolio demonstrates the durability and resiliency of options trading to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk. The options-based approach attempts to circumvent market drawdowns and generated a return of 62.2% relative to the Dow Jones’ 58.2% (Figures 1, 2, and 3).

Controlling Volatility
Figure 1 – Overall option metrics from May 2020 to March 2022 available via a Trade notification service
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Options-Based Portfolio Screening Tool

Controlling the overall systemic risk of a portfolio is essential as the markets continue to grapple with inflation, a rising interest rate environment, supply chain challenges, and the Russian/Ukraine conflict.

Controlling volatility while generating in-line or superior returns relative to the market is the goal of an options-based portfolio. An option-based strategy is achieved via a blended approach of options, long stock positions, and cash. Options alone cannot be the sole driver of portfolio appreciation; however, they can play a critical component in the overall portfolio construction while keeping volatility in check (Figure 1).

Generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns is the core of an options-based portfolio strategy. They can enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. Options enable the possibility to generate consistent monthly income in a high probability manner in various market scenarios. An options-based portfolio provides durability and resiliency to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk. Over the previous 2-year period, the portfolio strategy has consistently outperformed the Dow Jones with reduced volatility (Figure 1).

Options Trading

Figure 1 – Previous 24-month period of overall returns for the options-based portfolio strategy relative to the Dow Jones. All option and stock trades executed in the options-based portfolio is available via the Trade Notification Service

Options Screening Tool

Using basic technical indicators and key dates can aid in trade type selection, such as covered calls, put spreads, call spreads, or iron condors (Figures 2 and 3). Continue reading "Options-Based Portfolio Screening Tool"

Options Trading And Implied Volatility (IV) Rank

Recent Market Correction and Options

The post-pandemic gains have been negated as the accommodative monetary policies are coming to an end. The market has been smacked in the face with several macroeconomic issues via unsustainable inflation, impending interest rate hikes, and geopolitical issues. As such, a third of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are off at least 30% from their highs, half of the S&P 500 has fallen 15% or more, while the median biotech stock has sold off by 60%. Leveraging the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) as a proxy for the high-flying growth stocks, this composite is down 60% as well.

This multi-month period of sustained weakness has been accompanied by extreme volatility. With the increase in overall market volatility, implied volatility (IV) and IV Rank become advantageous for option traders as rich premiums can be collected when selling options. This type of extremely volatile environment that we've been faced with recently reinforces why risk-defined options (i.e., put spreads, call spreads, and iron condors) are critical if one chooses to leverage options as a component of an overall portfolio strategy. Risk-defined option trades establish your max losses and allow one to leverage a minimal amount of capital while maximizing returns.

Options and Implied Volatility

The goal of options trading is to sell options and collect premium income in a consistent and high-probability manner. Enabling your portfolio to appreciate steadily month after month without guessing which direction the market will move. The main key for options trading success is leveraging implied volatility and time premium decay to your advantage. Since options premium pricing is largely determined by implied volatility, it's this implied volatility component, when used appropriately, that provides option traders with a statistical edge in trading over the long term (Figure 1). Continue reading "Options Trading And Implied Volatility (IV) Rank"

Downside Protection: Risk-Defined Put Spreads vs Cash Covered Puts

Option trading can provide a meaningful addition to one's overall portfolio strategy when used in a disciplined manner. When options are used as a component to a holistic portfolio approach, generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns is achievable. An options-based portfolio can provide durability and resiliency to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk via a combination of options, long equity, and cash. When engaging in options trading, specific rules must be followed. One of the most important rules is to structure every option trade in a risk-defined (put spreads, call spreads, iron condors, diagonal spreads, etc.) manner.

The January 2022 meltdown in the overall markets is a harsh reminder of the trade-offs between risk-defined options and options that have undefined risk. The overall markets were in freefall, with a large percentage of stocks getting cut in half with indiscriminate selling across all sectors. The extreme market conditions throughout January resulted in all stocks auto-correlating in a downward spiral. During these periods of unrelentless selling across the markets, risk-defined options are essential to protect one's portfolio from massive losses while preserving cash-on-hand within the portfolio.

Put Spreads vs Cash Covered Puts

Risk-defined option spreads (i.e., put spreads) prevent any losses beyond a specific strike price, avoids the assignment of shares, does not require a significant amount of capital, and does not soak up capital with share assignments. Conversely, in the case of cash-covered options (i.e., cash-covered puts), large amounts of capital are dedicated to the trade, and share Continue reading "Downside Protection: Risk-Defined Put Spreads vs Cash Covered Puts"

Extreme Volatility: Options-Based Portfolio Approach

Cash is a critical component to any portfolio strategy to reduce volatility, seize opportunities, lower cost basis of a long position and avoid full exposure to the equity markets. Controlling portfolio volatility is essential as the broader markets continue to undergo a sea change from high beta/richly valued technology stocks and into value names. The past four-month stretch from September 2021 - January 2022 serves as a prime example of extreme market volatility. The markets pushed to new all-time highs early in September 2021, then suffered a significant selloff in the same month where the Dow Jones was down as much as 6%. October 2021 saw a bounce back into positive territory with new all-time highs set. Then the November/December 2021 stretch saw a sharp dichotomy between the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, with these indices experiencing relentless selling and heavy buying, respectively.

Amid the bifurcated market, entire sectors have been decimated, and some companies have lost swaths of market capitalizations. Even many well-established, profitable large-cap companies have seen their market capitalizations reduced in a meaningful way. Entire sectors of the market have been wiped out, specifically the fintech space and some pure stay-at-home plays. Given the market backdrop, the cash portion of the portfolio can come in handy to seize unique opportunities to bolster a portfolio. In addition to cash, a conservative options strategy can offer additional mitigation against these pockets of extreme volatility.

A Holistic Approach

Proper portfolio construction and optimal risk management is essential when engaging in options trading to drive portfolio results (Figure 1). Managing a long-term successful options-based portfolio requires a risk tolerance balance between cash, long equity, and options. Ideally, an options-based portfolio should be broken out into the below structure (This is an example breakdown, and percentages can be modified): Continue reading "Extreme Volatility: Options-Based Portfolio Approach"