The "personality" of a third wave shows itself in recent market action
By Elliott Wave International
A classic issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist published this exchange:
Q. Do you believe that the Wave Principle provides for an objective form of analysis? ... There are market watchers who say that applying wave theory is very subjective.
Prechter: I always ask, "compared to what?" There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same "fundamental" news event ... and come up with countless opposing conclusions. ... The Wave Principle is an excellent basis for assessing probabilities regarding future market movement. Probabilities are by nature different from certainties. Some people misinterpret this aspect of analysis as subjectivity, but all probabilities may be put in order objectively according to the rules and guidelines of wave formation.
So: While no one can "see" the future, you can use the Wave Principle to assess probabilities.
"In what traders called a 'bear raid,' sellers on Monday dumped an estimated 33 tonnes of gold in just two minutes on exchanges in Shanghai and New York, sending prices on a nearly $50 downward spiral from which they never fully recovered." (Reuters, July 21)
If you live in the U.S., maybe you've noticed lately that "We Buy Gold!" signs are disappearing from sidewalks in front of pawn shops. The signs really began popping up in 2010-2011, when gold prices were climbing to their all-time high of $1900 an ounce. And even after gold tumbled from that peak in September 2011, the signs stayed up for months. Only after gold fell below $1200 an ounce in 2013 -- and price stayed flat for almost two years -- did "We Buy Gold!" signs become scarce.
Someone may chuckle at this brief record of poor timing decisions, and maybe even put it down to the general investment ineptitude of laymen. Certainly, big-name gold market players -- like central banks, for example -- with their access to privileged information and armies of PhD's would not make timing mistakes like that. Right? Continue reading "Gold Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom"→
It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble.
Below are eight indicators we are watching closely, among others.
1) Record debt in U.S. dollars
Total dollar-denominated debt peaked at $52.7 trillion in early 2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it stands at $59 trillion, an unprecedented amount.
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