Will China Drop The Ball?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex

Chinese policymakers are in the midst of a very delicate maneuver. With a hyped housing market and an unloved stock market, China’s policymakers want the “hot money” from real estate investment to be funneled away from housing and into the stock market. The problem? It won’t be easy and may require sacrificing economic growth, just at the point when growth has begun to stabilize.

The Bubble Returns

For some time now, Beijing has been well aware of the bubbly housing market. In fact, China has experienced two housing slumps in past decade, back in 2011-2012 and in 2014-2015, in both cases, the slump was largely due to the government’s efforts to curb prices in the preceding years. Those efforts were primarily through the implementation of new housing regulations and by clamping down on shadow lending. More importantly, the Chinese government put to good use its main monetary tool, the Yuan. By allowing the Yuan to strengthen, credit became more expensive and, as a result, the hype ended. But the price tag was dear because tightening efforts also resulted in a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy and a meltdown in the Chinese stock market.

In 2015, the crisis was so severe, in fact, that Chinese policymakers had no choice but to drastically reverse policy by cutting lending rates, intervening in the stock market and, yes, as you might have surmised, devaluing the Yuan. But ironically, just when the easing measures have started to make a real impact, the housing market has once again become overheated and has turned bubbly. Continue reading "Will China Drop The Ball?"

Currency Devaluation's Dangerous Role in Deflation

By Elliott Wave International

The following article on currency devaluation's role in deflation is from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. EWI has just released a new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby, to help investors prepare now for the deflationary threat they see around the corner. Click here to read the new report >>

China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank.

"Surprise" has been a common word used by investors and financial pundits to describe the devaluation -- as in, "China's central bank surprise devaluation of yuan."

But what if we told you it wasn't a surprise -- it was in fact an expected event?

Below are three excerpts from analysis that EWI's own Chris Carolan published in his Sun-Tue-Thu Asian-Pacific Short Term Update on July 30 (several days before China's central bank first move to devalue the yuan against the U.S. dollar), then on Aug. 9 and Aug.11 (bold added).

The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update , July 30:

Continue reading "Currency Devaluation's Dangerous Role in Deflation"

Has China Lost Control?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex

This morning's newswires are filled with stories of yet another dramatic intervention by China in the Yuan exchange rate. This time, though, it's in favor of the Yuan. That news, more than any, has investors alarmed as it seems to suggest that China has lost control. To that, I say how can you lose something you never had?

China Never Had Full Control

China and its financial authorities, namely the Peoples Bank of China, are viewed as the effective forces controlling the Chinese money market. That means not just the currency but also the financial markets and inflation. Hence, the state of alarm currently dominating markets makes sense. But the fact is that China never really had the control that investors believed it had. Because simultaneously controlling monetary policy and the currency is like "trying to hold the stick at both ends;" it's just not possible. Continue reading "Has China Lost Control?"

China Devalues The Yuan: Now What?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex

It was less than a week ago that we pinned down the growing possibility that China would move to devalue the Yuan. Then – Bang! Since this morning, it's a done deal. Or is it? While China's move to devalue the Yuan (by roughly 1.9%) in a single day is the most aggressive Yuan devaluation since the "roaring" nineties, chances are this is only the beginning.

China Must Regain its Competitiveness

The core of the matter here is that China is trying to maintain the facade that this was a one-shot deal. However, it really has more to do with the government's attempt to free the Yuan rate. Beijing, it seems, may have finally bowed to the realities of market economics. Even as it enacts reforms to liberalize its financial markets and change its economic model, China must regain its competitiveness when it comes to exports. Continue reading "China Devalues The Yuan: Now What?"