Perception indicates that the bear is back (New DOW video)

Adam Hewison here and I've just finished a new video on the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DOW) that I'd like to share with you.

This may be a short video, but I think you'll get a lot out it. I'll analyze what's going on right now in the DOW, how it has developed over the last six months, and where I expect the DOW to go in the next six months.

As I've discussed before, perception is everything in the marketplace. I believe that perception is beginning to change in this market and the bears are back.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements. I would love to get your feedback about this video on our blog, so comment away!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
Co-creator, MarketClub

17 thoughts on “Perception indicates that the bear is back (New DOW video)

  1. H.C. Barnett,

    Thank you for your feedback I appreciate it.

    Right now, I believe the Dow and the other equity markets are still in a trading range that is being defined by the current earnings season.

    I expect we will see choppy markets for the balance of July.

    All the best. Follow the triangles.


  2. Mr. Hewison

    Excellent video on the DOW. Now that it has broken the 8200 level,
    how low will it go. your thoughts please.

    Curt in KY

  3. hey adam great video... just another analysis... do you see a reverse head and shoulders long term on the dow... ??? the left shoulder being the novenber lows and the head being the march lows?? thoughts.. thanks lou from new york

    1. Lou,

      Good observation. And they'll may not turn out to be a reverse head and shoulders of a long-term chart will just have to see.

      All the best,

  4. market ...hard to predict isit consolidate..nobody will knw next step
    it all our asumption only
    for me every things also can happen in every time.
    and nobody is perfect in the market
    even economist because market get many complex thnings not that simple.
    well just my own opinion. thanks

  5. Very interesting but can you really predict the future by analysis of history? How do you answer this question? I have a portfolio of income stocks I have bought since August 2008 that I call my Bear Trap Portfolio. Not counting income I am as of today up three percent. You may be perdicting a buying opportunity. Jim

    1. Jim,

      Thank you for your feedback. I've spent the better part of 30 years analyzing the markets based on history. Here's why I believe it works. Human nature has not changed in 2000 years nor is it likely to change in the next 2000 years if we still have a planet called earth.

      It is this one element that drives the market. People/traders/investors tend to act the same way in similar situations. That is why markets go up and down in my opinion

      Congratulations on your bear trap portfolio. I'm sure there a lot of investors that would like to be positive this year.

      All the best,

  6. I believe Adam is right. Take a look at the S&P500! My MACD gave a signal on June 16 that all was not well.

    A Head & Shoulders is one of the strongest signals one can get - the market is way too heavy. Go for it!

    My first H&S was in the early sixties about 2.00am! In the days when we had to draw all of our charts manually!

    Good trading

    1. Nigel,

      Thank you for your comment I appreciate it.

      Head and shoulders formations are one of the strongest patterns that you can have in technical analysis. Having said that they don't always work out and one has to be cognizant of money management.

      All the best you.

  7. hey adam,
    great video!! thank you for sharing all your wealth of information with us to pursue our dreams... One question i have is do you see a reverse head and shoulders on the dow long term? the head being the March lows and the left shoulder being the november lows... it looks like we're forming the right shoulder now.. any thoughts?? thanks
    lou g. nyc

  8. As we are entering earning season again people are keeping their fingers crossed...People right now are not sure where the market is going to head. Indicators right now are not driving the market, news is...The news that's going to dominate this market within the next few months is earnings... Alcoa reports after the bell today, and is an indicator of how the manufacturing side of our economy is doing. We have to keep a very close eye on manufacturing, and unemployment. We have to see solid evidence that this recession is going to end, or this bull market will become a bear market very quickly.

    1. Evan,

      Thank you for your very worthwhile comment.

      Earnings are going to be looked at all this week and I think after we get through with the earnings season will have a much clearer picture as to what the market's going to do.


  9. ok, I just see my initial comment was published 🙂 thx for the answer Adam

  10. Dacian,

    Thank you for your feedback. The reality is the market is bigger than all of us and the best thing to do is go with the flow. The head and shoulders formation that we point out in our latest video has been picked up by other technicians and I believe that they are seening the same things that we're seeing.

    Here is the reality, bull markets constantly have to have news to propel them higher. The opposite is true for bear markets, which fall under their own weight.

    The best thing in my opinion is to not overthink the markets.

    All the best,

  11. Even marketwatch talks about the H&S formation... not a good sign imo for fulfilling. Well, the markets can make the obvious sometimes...

  12. ok, thanks for this Adam. Markets can do the oposite as everyone is looking at that H&S formation; but in the same time everyone is looking at it and says the market can do the opossite (like I do here). So which is it? It can also do a false break.

    Better trade it with a trailing stop for short term traders...

    I have a more interesting question for you. What next? Once that 7700 or possibly 7400 on the Dow has been touched and we rebound from there? We take this day by day, but do you feel that rebound from 7700 (or whatever) will be interpreted by investors as a "higher low" in the big picture and they will conclude the March lows were the final lows? Probably we might want to look next at whether the market makes a higher-high, something like 9000 on the Dow. What do you think?


    1. Dacian,

      Lets see what happens in the market. It doesn't matter what I think, it's what the market thinks, that's what is important.


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