Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,282 while currently trading at 1,298 up about $16 for the trading week looking to crack the critical January 4th high of 1,300 in my opinion. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis only at 1,278 which is also the 2-week low. Gold prices are still trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher, so I also have a bullish recommendation in platinum as we were stopped out of the silver trade earlier in the week which is disappointing as silver is sharply higher in today's trade. The U.S. dollar this Friday afternoon is down 70 points as that is undoubtedly helping gold and the entire precious metals rally sharply today so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as I think 1,350 could be in the cards relatively soon. Demand is starting to come back into gold as large money managed funds continue to be buyers as I believe a secular bullish trend is underway.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract is currently trading at 15.71 an ounce as I had been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.83 level then getting stopped out around the 15.30 area earlier in the trading week. I remain bullish silver prices. However, they were unable to crack the January 4th high of 15.95 as prices look to consolidate as the chart structure remains solid at this time. Silver prices are now trading below their 20-day but still slightly above their 100-day moving average as the trend as mixed as I still have recommendations in platinum and gold as the whole sector remains firm at this time. Historically speaking silver prices compared to gold and palladium have wide spreads as I still think we're in a longer-term bottoming out pattern, however, if your a long term investor prices look attractive in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session as prices are ending the week on a positive note up $14 at 819 an ounce. Platinum prices settled last Friday in New York at 802 trading up about $17 for the trading week as I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 816 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis at 787 as we were just an eyelash away from getting stopped out. Platinum prices are still trading above their 20-day but below their 100-day moving average which stands at the 825 level, but for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the January 7th high of 836 as the precious metals across the board remain strong. The U.S. dollar is down about 70 points in today's trade as that is supporting platinum, and the rest of the precious metals as the volatility is also starting to increase which is a terrific thing to see in my opinion as I think the path of least resistance is higher. Platinum prices have tested the 790 level on multiple occasions only to rally as I think that situation happened once again this week.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the March contract is trading right near a 3-year low trading at 119.40 down fractionally for the week continuing its bearish momentum. Ideal weather conditions in the state of Florida coupled with an accelerating harvest as another outstanding prop should be produced once again as carryover levels remain very high as fundamentally and technically speaking this market has nothing positive to say at this time. If the 3-year low is broken, I think we can test the multi-year low that was hit on September 28th of 2015 at 103.45 as I still don't believe that a bottom has been formed in this market. I do not have a recommendation at this time, but if you are short, I would recommend that you stay short as I still think there is room to run because this is by far as the weakest out of the soft commodities. Orange juice prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly this trend has been to the downside for quite some time as the volatility still remembers very low which is the classic bearish trend where prices grind lower on a daily basis, and that's precisely what is occurring at this time.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the March contract is currently trading at 106.80 up for the 3rd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 104.95 a pound continuing its slow grinding bullish trend in my opinion. If you take a look at the daily chart, it looks to me that prices are going to try to retest the $110 moving average as prices were unable to close under the 98.50 level as now they are testing the upper end of resistance. Fundamentally speaking world supplies are still awash. However, carryovers were reduced coupled with the fact that the Brazilian crop estimate in 2019 will also be lowered as it certainly looks to me that prices have finally bottomed out. Volatility in coffee still remains ridiculously low especially if you look at this market historically speaking as I think the volatility will start to expand to the upside as prices topped out in October around the 129 level as there is room to run to the upside in my opinion so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the March contract is currently trading higher by 105 points at 74.19 looking to close near a 4-week high. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break 74.66 while then placing the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on January 3rd at 70.65 as the risk would be around 400 points or $2,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. There is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action. However, the government shutdown has ended so we will start to see some reports that were delayed due to that situation as I think the volatility will push to the upside. Cotton prices are still trading above their 20-day but below their 100-day moving average which stands around the 77.80 level as it looks to me that a lot of the commodities are bottoming out and if we can come up with any trade agreement with China then the long-term bearish trends could be over with. The chart structure is starting to improve on a daily basis due to the fact of low volatility that we are currently experiencing so let's keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved in next week's trade.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Soybean Meal Futures

Soybean meal futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 315 while currently trading at 312 down slightly for the week still stuck in a consolidation. I have been recommending a bullish position for quite some time around the 317 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at 308 as an exit strategy. In my opinion, I believe soybean meal prices are in a bottoming out pattern over the last 5-months with major support around the 305 / 310 level, and if we can come up with some type of agreement with China on trade I think the grain market could move substantially higher in a quick manner. Soybean meal prices are still trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average as prices continue to coil on a weekly basis, but for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the January 9th high of 324 in my opinion so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss. There is a lot of uncertainty due to the government shutdown as many reports have not been released. Farm futures survey is estimating that the soybean crop will be 84.6 million acres which is lower than 2018 estimated 90 million, but a little disappointing as estimates were as low as 82 million, but we will have to see what the actual USDA report will state.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 13.03 while currently trading at 12.44 down about 60 points for the week. I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 12.57 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the most recent low which was hit on January 3rd at 11.69 as an exit strategy. The risk on that trade is around $1,000 per contract plus slippage & commission as I'm bullish most of the commodity sectors at this time as the government shutdown has finally ended as government reports will start to be released once again. Sugar prices are trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average as they look to move higher, but they do have their setbacks here and there, and that's precisely what happened in today's trade, but I do believe that sugar is bottoming out. My only other soft commodity recommendation is in the coffee market which is hovering right near a 7-week high as weather conditions in Brazil are starting to become hot and dry so play this to the upside while making sure you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW