Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.19 an ounce while currently trading at 16.42 up about $0.23 for the trading week continuing it's bullish momentum as prices are right near a 1 year high.

Fundamentally speaking the European Union looks to lower interest rates even more as that is a positive fundamental factor towards the precious metals coupled with the fact that the Federal Reserve is probably going to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week as this market still looks to crack the 17 level.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level & if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss which now stands at 15.34 which is the 2 week low, however, the chart structure will improve daily next week therefor the monetary risk will be reduced significantly.

I also have bullish recommendations in platinum and copper as I think the precious metals across the board is headed higher so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as I still believe there is significant room to run to the upside.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Palladium Futures

Palladium futures in the September contract is currently trading at 1,537 after settling last Friday at 1,508 up nearly $30 for the trading week as I had been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level getting stopped out around the 1,525 level last week, however I'm looking at the possible bullish position soon.

I remain bullish the palladium market, and I think prices will test the July 11th all-time high at 1,600 in the coming weeks ahead. However, I will wait for the chart structure to improve; therefore, the risk/reward would be more in your favor as right now, I'm currently sitting on the sidelines.

Palladium prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher as I think the recent setback in price was blamed on profit-taking as there is still strong demand for this commodity. I also have bullish recommendations in platinum, silver, and copper as the precious metal sector is the strongest.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 2.22 while currently trading at 2.16 ending the week on a sour note hitting a fresh 3 year low. I do not have a recommendation in this commodity, but I'm certainly not recommending a bullish position as it looks to me that prices will crack the 2.00 level in the coming weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as this commodity has been very bearish over the last several years due to the fact that we have massive supplies in the United States coupled with average temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States as this commodity has absolutely nothing going for it.

I do not have any recommendations in the energy sector as it remains choppy and if you are short natural gas, I would continue to stay short while placing the stop loss above the 2 week high which is still quite a distance away because prices have declined rather rapidly.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2977 while currently trading at 3015 up about 38 points for the trading week hitting an all-time high in yesterday's trade.

Earnings season is upon us as Google is up about $100 this Friday coupled with the fact of many other companies are sharply higher as they also beat estimates and if you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I am very bullish the stock market, however, I am currently not involved.

If you are long a futures contract, continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 2969 as an exit strategy as I see no reason to be short this market. Fundamentally speaking, the S&P 500 looks very strong with historically low-interest rates, and excellent earnings continue to fuel prices to the upside as the U.S economy is the strongest in the world.

The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside as the Nasdaq 100 also hit all-time highs this week as foreign money continues to flow into the U.S. equity market as there is no growth in Europe, so stay long while placing the proper stop loss.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract is trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session down 1 penny at 4.26 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 4.35 down about $0.09 for the trading week continuing its short term bearish momentum.

I am not involved in the corn market. However, it looks to me that a possible head and shoulder chart pattern has developed as I still believe prices will fill the gap at 4.20 in next week's trade as the whole grain market looks bearish in my opinion.

I have bearish recommendations in wheat and oats as corn prices continue to decline because we have excellent weather conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States as that has helped improve crop conditions coupled with the fact that demand remains weak.

Corn prices are trading under their 20-day moving average, but slightly above their 100 day which stands at 4.11 as this market has gone nowhere over the last couple of months and I still believe prices will be choppy to lower until August 12th as that report is extremely critical and will-certainly provide guidance on what the 2019 crop will be.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Wheat Futures

Wheat Futures in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5.02 a bushel while currently trading at 4.96 down about $0.06 for the trading week as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 5.04 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high standing at 5.31 as an exit strategy.

The chart structure will improve tremendously come Monday's trade as that stop will be lowered to 5.17 as prices are near 2 month low. I'm also recommending a bearish position in the oats as wheat and oats can follow one another as improving weather conditions continues to put pressure on wheat prices here in the short-term.

Wheat is trading below its 20-day moving average, but right at its 100-day, however, for the bearish momentum to continue, we have to break the July 23rd low of 4.83 in my opinion as I still think prices look weak so continue to play this to the downside.

The grain market, in general, is starting to decline as we are experiencing excellent weather conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States, however all of this can change very quickly if the August 12th crop report states something shocking as we really don't know what the acre situation is, but in the short-term prices look to head lower so stay short.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the December contract is currently trading at 2.66 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2.72 as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 2.75 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high standing at 2.85 as an exit strategy.

The chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as prices are at critical support in my opinion and if the 2.65 level is broken I think we're going to head down to levels that we witnessed in early May around the 2.50 level so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss.

Oat prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as the volatility is low as the oat market can experience high volatility especially during the summer months, but that is not the case at this time. Presently I also have a bearish wheat recommendation as the grains are starting to meltdown due to the fact of excellent growing conditions have entered the Midwestern part of the United States as the risk/reward remains in your favor.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

Head and Shoulders Top or Bottom---This technical indicator consists of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder and a line drawn as the neckline and occur in many different daily charts over time.

The left shoulder is formed at the end of an extensive move during which volume is noticeably high. This type of indicator takes time to develop usually a couple of months, in my opinion.

After the peak of the left shoulder is formed, there is a subsequent reaction and prices slide down to a certain extent, which generally occurs on low volume. The prices rally up to form the head with normal or heavy volume, and subsequent reaction downward is accompanied with lesser volume. The right shoulder is formed when prices move up again but remain below the central peak called the head and fall nearly equal to the first valley between the left shoulder and the head or at least below the peak of the left shoulder. Volume is lesser in the right shoulder formation compared to the left shoulder and the head formation. A neckline is drawn across the bottoms of the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder.

When prices break through this neckline and keep on falling after forming the right shoulder, it is the ultimate confirmation of the completion of the Head and Shoulders top formation. In my opinion, I have used this technical indicator in the past, and I think it is one of the more reliable indicators out there primarily if you use it with some other indicators it can help improve your trading results.

There are also head and shoulder bottoms that have the same characteristics just the opposite because a head and shoulders top is predicting a top while a head and shoulders bottom is telling you that the lows might be in just like the copper chart back in August when it had a head and shoulders bottom.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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Phone #: 630-408-3325
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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.