Are Silver Futures Set To Breakout?

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.69 an ounce while currently trading at 17.77 up slightly for the trading week as prices have been stuck in the mud over the last month. I am not involved as I'm waiting for a breakout to the upside to occur, which would happen if prices crack the January 27th high of 18.37. I will not take a short position because I think the downside is very limited.

Silver prices are trading right at their 20-day while still above their 100-day moving average as the Coronavirus is continuing to spread, and I think that will support prices here in the short-term. The chart structure will also start to improve in next week's trade as we could be involved relatively soon with gold prices remaining strong.

The volatility at the current time remains relatively low. However, I don't think that the situation is going to last much longer as fundamentally, and technically speaking, I believe this commodity looks good. Keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved soon as I think the risk/reward is in your favor.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,573 an ounce while currently trading at 1,585 on concerns about the Coronavirus continuing to spread, especially in China helping support prices here in the short-term. I'm not involved, but I do believe higher prices are ahead, and if you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss at 1,550 as an exit strategy as the true breakout to the upside is at 1,598 which was the January 3rd high.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position as that would be counter-trend trading as I see no reason to be short.

At the current time, I'm keeping a close eye on platinum and silver as I think the complex is ready to break out to the upside soon as strong demand for gold continues to push prices near a 7 year high even though the U.S. dollar is right at a contract high. The U.S. equity market continues to hit all-time highs as money flows are entering all 3 sectors, so if you are long-stay long in my opinion.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 131/02 while currently trading at 131/01, basically unchanged for the trading week as the volatility has come to a crawl.

The 10-year yield stands at 1.60% as the Coronavirus is helping support prices, but it would be nice to see some volatility come back into this market. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 129/18 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss now stands at 130/07 on a hard basis only as the chart structure will not improve for another 3 trading sessions. Next Monday, the markets will be closed due to President's Day, however for the bullish momentum to continue, prices have to break the February 3rd high of 131/28.

I remain bullish. The U.S. stock market has hit all-time highs once again this week as. Generally, that is a fundamental bearish factor towards the bond market; however, with all this uncertainty about this virus, things have changed, so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Live Cattle Futures

Cattle futures in the April contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session up sharply this Friday afternoon in Chicago by 240 points at 120.92 after settling last Friday at 119.80 ending the week on a positive note. I have been recommending a bearish position from the 124.50 level, and if you took that trade, the stop-loss now stands at 121.80 as that stop is on a hard basis only as I am not willing to risk anymore at this time.

Cattle prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as prices on Wednesday hit a 4 1/2 month low before the sharp rally occurred as short covering is the main culprit. Volatility has finally come to life, and I still remain bearish, and I will continue to place the proper stop loss. I still believe prices look expensive, so stay short.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Rice Futures

Rice futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 13.61 while currently trading at 13.34, having its first losing week in over a month as prices hit a 6-year high in Monday's trade. I will be recommending a bearish position if prices close below 13.26 while then placing the stop loss above the 6-year high, which was hit on February 10th at 13.86 as the risk is around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission.

Rice prices are trading under their 20-day but still far above their 100-day moving average as the risk/reward would be in your favor if prices close below that critical 13.26 level as we were almost involved in yesterday's trade. This has been one of the strongest commodities over the last several months.

Rice historically speaking, is an extremely volatile commodity, and the volatility certainly has come to life over the last week. Rice can have huge price swings daily, and that is why I'm looking at a possible short position as there could be room to run. However, wait for the breakout to occur first.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.03 a bushel while currently trading at 2.94 down about $0.09 for the trading week hitting a 5-week low. I have been recommending a short position from the 2.96 level while then placing the stop-loss above the 10-day high standing at 3.10 as the risk is around $700 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding.

I also have a bearish wheat position, and I'm keeping a very close eye on the rice market as the grain market across the board still looks bearish, in my opinion. The risk/reward is in your favor, so stay short as the chart structure will improve in 3 trading sessions; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced tremendously.

Oat prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average for the first time in months, and the trend may have finally changed as the downtrend line on the daily chart also remains intact. So, continue to play this to the downside as this is an excellent trade for smaller trading accounts.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5.58 a bushel while currently trading at 5.44 down about 14 cents for the trading week. I have been recommending a short position from around the 5.44 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 5.66 as an exit strategy. Wheat prices are hovering right near a 7 week low, and if you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact.

I think the grain market remains bearish as I'm also recommending a short position in oats as the risk/reward is in your favor. However, the chart structure will not improve for another 4 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time.

Fundamentally speaking, there are some concerns about the French wheat situation as that quality has been inferior, however ideal weather conditions around the world continue to put pressure on this market, so stay short as I think 5.25 is in the cards soon.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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