Options Trading And The Bull Market No One Saw Coming

2019 has ushered in one of the most surprising bull markets that nearly no one saw coming. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Wall Street analysts underestimated the strength of this bull market as we enter into mid-November. Expectations for 2019 were largely muted when factoring in a slew of potentially negative economic issues such as the U.S./China trade war, Brexit, inverted yield curve, potential recession, Federal Reserve actions, and the presidential impeachment efforts. Despite all of these headwinds, the indices continue to post record highs, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 notching gains of 18% and 23%, respectively.

This market has been dubbed the “most hated bull market in history,” illustrating the point that the ability for anyone to predict market returns is a futile endeavor. Reiterating why 92% actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark and why there’s only a 36% chance of picking a stock that will outperform the market. An options-based portfolio approach can offer a superior alternative to traditional stock picking and position your portfolio to thrive in any environment such as this surprise bull market. An option-based strategy mitigates risk and circumvents drastic market moves. Selling options and collecting premium income in a high-probability manner generates consistent income for steady portfolio appreciation in both bear and bull market conditions. This is all done without predicting which way the market will move. Options trading is a great way to generate superior returns with less volatility over the long-term regardless of market conditions such as this “most hated bull market in history.”

Options and the Most Hated Bull Market

Market headwinds aplenty coupled with coming off a tough 2018, Wall Street had a negative view of stocks for 2019, and as a result, the vast majority of analysts missed one of the best years of the longest bull market in history. This market continues to make new highs after new highs. Per CNBC, of 17 forecasters for S&P 500 price, just three have targets that are above where the broad market index traded as of November 4th, 2019, with still nearly two months left in the year. Furthermore, negative sentiment is seen in the put-call ratio (a measure of sentiment among options traders), has remained above one since mid-September, a contrarian indicator that the market could be headed higher due to overly negative sentiment. Continue reading "Options Trading And The Bull Market No One Saw Coming"

Stocks Slump After Hitting Record Highs

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks wavered Friday after President Donald Trump threw cold water on recent U.S.-China trade optimism by saying he has not agreed to roll back existing tariffs.

President Trump made his comment Friday, noting Beijing would like him to scrap those levies. Those comments came after trade optimism earlier in the week, sparked a massive rotation out of bonds, and lifted equities to record levels.

The Dow Jones traded 55 points lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fluctuated around the flatline.

Entering Friday afternoon's run to the close, the DOW is up 1% for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and .8% for the week. It would be the third straight week of gains for the DOW while the S&P 500 headed for its fifth straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq was on pace for a six-week winning streak. Continue reading "Stocks Slump After Hitting Record Highs"

How To Trade Options In Small Accounts

How can you effectively run an options-based portfolio when trading with a small account? For example, how can you trade options on stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), Facebook (FB), etc., that possess such a high price per share when account balances are limited? People often shy away from options trading due to low account balances. However, limited capital doesn’t preclude you from trading, and in fact, you can run an effective options portfolio regardless of account size. Options enable you to leverage a minimal amount of capital, which opens the door to trading virtually any stock, all while defining your risk.

Over the past 13 months, ~315 trades have been made with a win rate of 86% and a premium capture of 57% across 69 different tickers. When stacked up against the S&P 500, an options strategy generated a return of 9.1% compared to the S&P 500 index, which returned 3.7% over the same period. These returns demonstrate the resilience of this high probability options trading in both bear and bull markets. Moreover, these results can be replicated irrespective of account size when following the fundamentals outlined below.

Myth Busting Small Account Limitations

Options can be leveraged, using small amounts of capital to trade what otherwise would require much greater capital requirements. How is this possible? It’s possible because options can be traded in a risk-defined manner. Therefore, entering any options trade, the required capital equals the maximum loss while the maximum gain equals the option premium income received. Since the risk-defined approach has a max loss, the required capital is equivalent to the max loss. The maximum loss value only needs to be covered by the available account balance. The aggregate price of the underlying shares within an option contract (contracts trade in 100 share blocks) is irrelevant.

The overall options-based portfolio strategy is to sell options that enable you to collect premium income in a high-probability manner while generating consistent income for steady portfolio appreciation regardless of market conditions. This is all done without predicting which way the market will move since options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go. This options-based approach provides a margin of safety, mitigates drastic market moves, and contains portfolio volatility. This strategy is agnostic to account balance and applies to accounts of all sizes. Continue reading "How To Trade Options In Small Accounts"

October Jobs Report Beats Expectations

Hello traders everywhere. As we head into the Friday close, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading at record high levels and looking to close at record highs for the week getting a boost from a better than expected jobs number for October. The S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ will all post weekly gains over +1%.

The U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 75,000 jobs for the previous month. October jobs growth easily beat estimates despite a decline of 42,000 jobs in the autos sector due to a General Motors strike that has now been settled.

Jobs growth data for September and August were also revised substantially higher. September's number was revised up to 180,000 from 136,000. August's job growth was revised to 219,000 from 168,000. Continue reading "October Jobs Report Beats Expectations"

S&P 500 Vies For Record Close

Hello traders everywhere. As we head into the Friday close, the S&P 500 is making a run at its intra-day record high of 3,027.98 by trading just shy of it hitting 3,027.39, which happens to be above its record close of 3,025.86 which was set on July 26th of this year. The move higher was bolstered by strong quarterly earnings from Intel along with apparent progress on the U.S.-China trade front.

On a weekly level, the S&P 500 will post a weekly gain of +1.2% while the DOW will check in with a weekly gain of +.8% and not too be outdone the NASDAQ is looking to close out the week with an increase of +1.8%, leading the pack. For the NASDAQ, this will be four straight weeks of gains, while the S&P 500 will have three weeks, and the DOW will have its second winning week out of the last three.

Crude oil spiked this week, gaining +4.7% for week triggering a new green weekly Trade Triangle. The spike is due to news that OPEC will consider instituting even deeper production cuts at its December meeting and a drop in the oil rig count. The US oil and gas rig count fell sharply this week, according to Baker Hughes, with a decline of 25 rigs for the week. This week marks nine decreases out of the last ten weeks. The total oil and gas rig count now stand at 830, or 238 down from this time last year. Continue reading "S&P 500 Vies For Record Close"