What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?

Generating smooth and consistent income month after month without predicting which way the stock market will move is the objective of options trading. Running an option-based portfolio offers a superior risk profile relative to a stock-based portfolio while providing a statistical edge to optimize favorable trade outcomes. Options trading is a long-term game that requires discipline, patience, time, maximizing the number of trade occurrences and continuing to trade through all market conditions. Put simply; an options-based approach provides a margin of safety with a decreased risk profile while providing high-probability win rates. Essentially, options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go. Sticking to a set of fundamentals, this approach can provide long-term, high-probability win rates to generate consistent income while circumventing drastic market moves. In July, I posted a 96% (24/25) options win rate, and over the previous 10 months through both bull and bear markets that win rate percentage was 87% (199/230). Over the previous 10 months, the options-based portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 over the same period by a significant margin producing a 6.1% return against a 2.3% for the S&P 500.

What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?

Insurance companies sell policies based on actuaries and risk factors, then price these polices to their advantage. Insurance companies are betting on probabilities across insurance products and sell overpriced policies above their expected losses. The insurer agrees to pay out a specific amount of money for a specific loss (i.e., death). In return, the insurance company is paid monthly premiums, and based on this risk-based revenue model; it’s a very profitable business. Insurance companies sell policies with a premium cost level that maximizes a statistical edge to the insurance company’s benefit. The goal is to collect premiums over the course of the policy and never payout on the policies they sell to you. So, the probability of paying out on the policy is very low while the premiums received, over the policy lifespan will exceed your total benefit. Continue reading "What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?"

Stocks Fall On Amplified Trade Fears

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks fell Friday after President Trump suggested that a meeting with China on trade might be canceled, capping a tumultuous week driven by the trade war and emerging currency fight between the U.S. and China.

"We're not ready to make a deal, but we'll see what happens," President Trump told reporters Friday morning. "We will see whether or not China keeps our meeting in September."

The DOW slid -0.9% in midday trading on Friday losing over 200 pts. The S&P 500 dropped -1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ was down -1.4%. The indexes had been down to open the day and fell further as the president commented on trade progress.

For a weekly view the S&P 500 is down roughly -.9 for the week unable to erase the losses of the week, in fact, the DOW will lose -1.2% and the NASDAQ will lose -1% making for a tough week.

Gold and Bitcoin had great weeks posting weekly gains of +4% and +8% while crude oils struggle continued losing -1.4% on the week.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Trade Tensions Sink Stocks

Hello traders everywhere. China's answer to the latest round of tariffs that President Trump announced last week was to let the Yuan, China's currency, slide below the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade fanning fears that it could further aggravate an ongoing trade war.

The Dow plunged more than 600 points a few different times today losing over -2%, while the S&P 500 sank over -2% and the Nasdaq dropped -3%. The three indexes are on pace to post their biggest-one day loss since May 13. The Nasdaq is on track to fall for a sixth straight session, which would be its longest losing streak since late 2016. The S&P 500 headed for a six-day losing streak as well. The major indexes have also fallen more than 5% from their record highs set last month.

Bitcoin has mounted a comeback that started last week and culminated with a new green weekly Trade Triangle being issued at $11,370.78 signaling a move back to a long position. Bitcoin is currently up +5% backing up its +14% move last week. Is Bitcoin the new haven for China?

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Stocks Fall After Tariffs and Fed Cut

Hello traders everywhere. All three major indexes will end the week in negative territory after suffering a one-two punch from the Fed and President Trump. The move lower started on Wednesday when the Fed announced that they were cutting the key interest rate a quarter-point in effort to keep economy on track. That news caused all three major indexed to finish -1% lower on the day with the S&P 500 triggering a new red weekly Trade Triangle at the end of trading that day indicating a move to a sidelines position.

Thursday morning saw a bit of optimism with stocks climbing higher in early trading only to be chopped down when President Trump tweeted "Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%". That news sent the DOW lower losing -1% or 280pts on the day triggering a new red weekly Trade Triangle as it joined the S&P 500 on the sidelines.

The stock market continues to move lower as we end the trading week lower culminating with the NASDAQ joining the S&P 500 and DOW triggering new red weekly Trade Triangle after losing -1.39% as we head into afternoon trading. As we stand stocks are on pace to have their worst week of the year with the S&P 500 and DOW losing over -3% and the NASDAQ losing over -4%.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Stocks Rise On Solid GDP Report

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks rose after a set of strong earnings reports and data showing that the domestic economy grew at a healthy pace in the second quarter.

The gains, as well as an increase in U.S. government bond prices, came after data released early Friday showed that the GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said, narrowly above the 1.8% expected by most economists.

The figures were boosted by U.S. shoppers. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, recorded the strongest pace of growth since late 2017.

For the week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are headed for solid gains hitting intra-day record highs of 3,023.93 and 8,327.06, the two indexes are up 1.5% and 2.1% week to date, respectively. The DOW, however, is headed for a slight loss of -.06%.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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