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This is turning out to be a very expensive week for investors who are still holding long positions in this market. As I warned late last year and all this year, I felt the market was and is going to be volatile and more than likely going lower.
Let's go back several years to the first quarter of 2009 when the equity markets bottomed out and began their six-year climb to the stars.
If you look at the S&P 500, you can see that it made a low on the week of March 2, 2009 at 683.38. Six years later on the week of July 13th it closed at a high of 2126.64. I want to look at the market using the Fibonacci tool and see potentially where this index might be headed on the downside. A classic 38.2% Fibonacci retracement takes this index back to 1,574, (it closed at 1,921.84 yesterday). A 50% retracement would bring the S&P 500 back down to 1405.51 and a 62% retracement would take it all the way back down to 1236.24.
The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1922.03 Continue reading "Crude Oil Crashes Through $30 And The Market Follows"
Hello everyone! GoPro, Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRO) had a sell signal exactly a year ago today indicating that this stock was in trouble and headed lower. That signal came in at $46.50 on a monthly Trade Triangle. GoPro is currently trading below $12 a share.
Two of the major indices are now officially in bear markets based on the Trade Triangle technology. I have talked about the power of the Trade Triangles and how they can give off early warning signals of impending changes in the market. For example, if you look back last December, members received an early warning signal that all was not well in the S&P 500. That signal came in the form of a weekly Trade Triangle on December 11th at 2,019.39. As I write this commentary, the S&P 500 is currently trading at 1,880! The same warning signals occurred in both the Dow and the NASDAQ. These warning signals occur in stocks as well, take a look at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE:BBY), Under Armour Inc. (NYSE:UA) and a host of other stocks that were once thought to be invincible.
If you have been reading this blog for any length of time you've heard me make the statement, "they slide faster than they glide". That means that markets tend to go down much faster than they go up. Some market pundits blame it on gravity, I just say that perception may be the real culprit here. Right now confidence in the market is low and perception is high that there is more trouble ahead. Continue reading "Exactly 1 Year Ago Today, GoPro Gave A Sell Signal At $46.50"
By: Cory Mitchell, founder of VantagePointTrading.com
Whether I'm day trading or swing trading forex (and other markets as well), I frequently use the method described below. It's a price action trading method, with trendlines and trend channels used to help establish entry points and potential targets. Here's the basic strategy; adjust it to your liking or add your own indicators to help you implement it.
Before placing a trade, calculate your proper position size. Position size is calibrated for the trade so you are risking 1% (or less) of your account capital on each trade. All trades taken must have at least a 2:1 reward:risk ratio, but often we'll end up with trades that have a 5:1 or 6:1 ratio (more on that in a bit). If risking 1% of your account, you stand to make at least 2%, but often 5% or more...that's 5% on your total account, not just traded capital (because our risk is also based on the total account). If you risk up to 2% per trade, your gains double.
Before commencing trade, note any significant economic data coming out over the next 24-hours. Avoid placing entries or stop loss orders close the current price right before a major news announcement, as this can cause slippage. Best to avoid those trades. Continue reading "My Favorite Swing Trading Strategy"
There is no doubt about it 2015 will be viewed as a very tough year for most investors. Most of the large hedge funds were not immune to losing money with many of them going out of business. This is in sharp contrast to the easy money years of 2009 through 2014 when the Fed was dropping rates and printing money like it was going out of style.
Today I'm going to be looking at the World Cup Portfolio and see how it performed quarter by quarter market by market. The World Cup Portfolio was not immune to the challenges of 2015, but it did finish the year in the black.
While the World Cup Portfolio showed a positive return at the end of 2015, it was the lowest return that the portfolio has had since its inception. The 19.4% return for the year while positive and still very respectable by most measurements was somewhat disappointing by our standards.
So let's go through the markets quarter by quarter and see how the WCP was able to show a positive return when many others didn't. Continue reading "Here's How The World Cup Portfolio Performed In 2015"
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