Category: General

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract finished down about $4 for the week at 1,318 an ounce reversing earlier losses finishing strong especially compared to the rest of the commodity sectors. The U.S stock market sold off about 200 points as that supported gold prices as there were concerns earlier in the day about lower inflation estimates in Europe coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar also hit a 2 week high. However, investors came back into the market as a flight to quality. I have been recommending a bullish trade from around the 1,252 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss has now been raised to 1,302 as the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remain strong, but for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the January 31st high of 1,331 in my opinion. Let's see what Monday's trade brings as I think they'll be a lot of volatility because many government reports will finally be released.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures are trading lower by $3 today breaking a 5-day winning streak hitting a 7 month high yesterday continuing its bullish momentum. Gold reacted positively earlier in the week off the Federal Reserve comments stating that basically, they will not raise interest rates until probably later this year sending stock prices & many commodities higher across the board. I have been recommending a bullish position originally in the February contract from around the 1,252 level as you had a roll over into the April contract due to expiration as prices are currently trading at 1,327 an ounce. As an exit strategy, I would place the stop loss under the 10-day low which was hit on January 24th at 1,281 as the chart structure will not improve for another three trading sessions so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time. Gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is higher as we've taken out major resistance as well as I still think prices could trade up to the 1,400 level as demand has come back into this commodity.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Fed Doves Take Flight

Posted on by The INO.com Team

A ‘wild card’ segment has been added to NFTRH reports because I wanted the freedom to go out of bounds in any direction, beyond our usual areas of disciplined coverage. Last week it was a look at the Semiconductor sector.

This week it is Fed policy with a side trip down memory lane, trying once again to illustrate why today is not at all like the ZIRP era and why the post-2015 re-connect between the Fed Funds rate and the stock market does not bode well for stocks, assuming the Fed really is going soft.

Excerpted from tomorrow’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which will also include loads of actionable analysis along with the more theoretical stuff below…

Fed Doves Take Flight (But We Are Not in Kansas Anymore)

Wise guys trading Fed Funds futures see no more rate hikes in 2019, and a few even imagine a rate cut before year-end. Here are the projections for the next 3 meetings, showing an overwhelming view that the Fed will hold the current 225-250 target rate.  Continue reading "Fed Doves Take Flight" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,282 while currently trading at 1,298 up about $16 for the trading week looking to crack the critical January 4th high of 1,300 in my opinion. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis only at 1,278 which is also the 2-week low. Gold prices are still trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher, so I also have a bullish recommendation in platinum as we were stopped out of the silver trade earlier in the week which is disappointing as silver is sharply higher in today's trade. The U.S. dollar this Friday afternoon is down 70 points as that is undoubtedly helping gold and the entire precious metals rally sharply today so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as I think 1,350 could be in the cards relatively soon. Demand is starting to come back into gold as large money managed funds continue to be buyers as I believe a secular bullish trend is underway.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535…

Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019

This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical upturn.

The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.

My question has been over the last year and still is… ‘is the Semi Equipment downturn a real cycle or just a cyclical interruption?’ Reference… Continue reading "Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019" →