Category: General

Is Gold as an Investment Finished?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream media thinks.  In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides of the debate.  Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold.  The aptly named Howard Gold explains:

The Case for Owning Gold Has Collapsed; Yellow metal could be headed much, much lower .

Gold could be headed not much lower, but much much lower.  This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce.  So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go much much lower.  Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double ‘much’ whammy on you!

After critical support at 1524 was lost our first downside target of 1440 or so was sawn through like Balsa Wood.  Okay fine.  For those who micro manage every tick in the price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound must extend back up to and through the broken support level at 1440 or the next target in the low 1200’s is up next. Continue reading "Is Gold as an Investment Finished?" →

Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

How can we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?

Here are some of the factors:

  • George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about 12.2% at present.
  • On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some members were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying of Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought before, the "printing" may not cause as much dollar debasement.
  • On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its target price. It even recommended getting out of gold.
  • COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year (much more on this technical point below).
  • The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators and trend followers.
  • Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million euros' worth of its gold to cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell, the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers, rather than flood the physical markets.

My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market. Continue reading "Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect" →

Gold Chart of The Week

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (April 22nd through April 26th)

Without any big news to play off of, most markets begin the week a bit flat. Traders this morning are trying to decide whether the only standout rally in the Gold is here to stay, or if it is an early stop hunt to begin the week. We won’t soon forget the Sunday overnight in the Metals last week when Gold continued a drop that we have not seen in over thirty years. So who can blame anyone for being once bitten, twice shy?

A scan across the board does not reveal much except for a majority of the market sectors making an effort to retrace the price action we experienced a week ago. Korea has been rather silent, the tragedy in Boston is seemingly on the mend, and the parade of FED Member interviews is slowly coming to a close. In the absence of these headlines, we will likely go back to trading the actual reports that are scheduled this week. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week" →

Can Equities Cushion the Blow of Falling Gold Prices?

Posted on by admin

The Gold Report: Peter, can you give us your long-term view of the Eurozone as it lurches from bailout to bailout?

Peter Rose: Some major things have to happen in Europe and the sooner, the better. Unfortunately, I think it will get worse in the short term.

But from the mining industry perspective, these crises are bringing a lot of realism to certain governments. Greece has opposed mining, despite having quite good ore bodies, as do Portugal, Spain and Cyprus. Mining companies can generate real revenues, exports and jobs and contribute to the financial coffers.

In addition, the European Union has good rules of law. The tenures are pretty safe, there are pro-mining interests and there are deposits of strategic elements. If you compare the operating costs with Australia, the European infrastructure tends to be better; wage rates are significantly lower. It makes for a pretty compelling story.

TGR: You deal with many junior mining companies. In 2004, the junior mining companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange (TSX.V) averaged 27 million (27M) shares outstanding. Today, the average is 73M shares. Why have share floats risen so dramatically? Continue reading "Can Equities Cushion the Blow of Falling Gold Prices?" →

Will Obama's Chained CPI Help Keep Inflation from Eating into Your Savings?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we examine ways in which inflation nibbles away at your retirement income, especially in light of the President’s proposal for Chained CPI adjustments to Social Security. The formal title is Chain-weighted Consumer Price Index and it’s a variation of how the government figures out what is what we would call "inflation." Either way, with the low rates on offer from CDs and other "safe" investments, investors who don’t take action fall behind every year.

Unfortunately, the numbers show what most people don’t want to face: the days of relying on Social Security plus a few stable bonds and CDs are long over. To earn decent and sustainable returns, investors must search beyond traditional safe havens. Continue reading "Will Obama's Chained CPI Help Keep Inflation from Eating into Your Savings?" →