Beware Of Dead Cat Bounces

What is a dead cat bounce? It is simply a rally from a very oversold condition. That's the case today as many of the markets have literally gone straight down in the first weeks of 2016 and contributed to the worst start of any year in the history of trading.

A dead cat bounce does not mean a trend change or that you have made a major bottom in the market. Technically, a dead cat bounce is really just a short covering rally from a market that is very oversold. If and when the major indices are going to reverse the trend and move back up, they are going to have to do quite a bit of repair work to change the negative technical picture that we are currently facing.

After the close today Netflix.com Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) will report earnings - the current technical picture for this stock is mixed. The longer-term trend for Netflix is positive with a green Trade Triangle in place. However, the intermediate-term trend is down with a red weekly Trade Triangle. I would suggest standing on the sidelines at the moment. Continue reading "Beware Of Dead Cat Bounces"

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Crude Oil Crashes Through $30 And The Market Follows

This is turning out to be a very expensive week for investors who are still holding long positions in this market. As I warned late last year and all this year, I felt the market was and is going to be volatile and more than likely going lower.

Let's go back several years to the first quarter of 2009 when the equity markets bottomed out and began their six-year climb to the stars.

If you look at the S&P 500, you can see that it made a low on the week of March 2, 2009 at 683.38. Six years later on the week of July 13th it closed at a high of 2126.64. I want to look at the market using the Fibonacci tool and see potentially where this index might be headed on the downside. A classic 38.2% Fibonacci retracement takes this index back to 1,574, (it closed at 1,921.84 yesterday). A 50% retracement would bring the S&P 500 back down to 1405.51 and a 62% retracement would take it all the way back down to 1236.24.

The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1922.03 Continue reading "Crude Oil Crashes Through $30 And The Market Follows"

Exactly 1 Year Ago Today, GoPro Gave A Sell Signal At $46.50

Hello everyone! GoPro, Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRO) had a sell signal exactly a year ago today indicating that this stock was in trouble and headed lower. That signal came in at $46.50 on a monthly Trade Triangle. GoPro is currently trading below $12 a share.

Two of the major indices are now officially in bear markets based on the Trade Triangle technology. I have talked about the power of the Trade Triangles and how they can give off early warning signals of impending changes in the market. For example, if you look back last December, members received an early warning signal that all was not well in the S&P 500. That signal came in the form of a weekly Trade Triangle on December 11th at 2,019.39. As I write this commentary, the S&P 500 is currently trading at 1,880! The same warning signals occurred in both the Dow and the NASDAQ. These warning signals occur in stocks as well, take a look at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE:BBY), Under Armour Inc. (NYSE:UA) and a host of other stocks that were once thought to be invincible.

If you have been reading this blog for any length of time you've heard me make the statement, "they slide faster than they glide". That means that markets tend to go down much faster than they go up. Some market pundits blame it on gravity, I just say that perception may be the real culprit here. Right now confidence in the market is low and perception is high that there is more trouble ahead. Continue reading "Exactly 1 Year Ago Today, GoPro Gave A Sell Signal At $46.50"

Look For The Market To Catch Its Breath This Week

After last week's shellacking, I expect the markets to regroup and get used to a another level of trading. I do not expect to see this market rebound dramatically like it has done in the past. If one looks at the NASDAQ index on a weekly close basis, last week's closing price was the lowest level since January 26th of 2015. That does not auger well for this index in the future.

The key to remember this week is not to get overly excited and to stay disciplined. Give the market some room and time to sort out what it has to sort out and then be prepared to make your move.

Here's how I see the big picture, crude oil continues to be in a bear market and I have targeted the $28-$30 levels on the downside for now. Gold is trying to make a turn to the upside which is a reflection of everyone's nervous state about the economy and about liquidity in general. Continue reading "Look For The Market To Catch Its Breath This Week"