Hello MarketClub members everywhere. I am sticking out my neck today and calling today's overnight rally a "dead cat bounce." This type of rally is not a reversal, it is more of a correction for a very oversold condition in the equity markets.
If we have any cat lovers out there my apologies go to you, but I have to admit I do love the expression "dead cat bounce." I'm not sure where the expression came from, but it seems to fit the markets perfectly.
Indices & Stocks: Make no mistake about it, the dramatic Brexit slide in the markets worldwide has had a profound effect both technically and psychologically on the markets. The major indices and many stocks appear to have put in tops that are capable of moving to some of the Fibonacci levels I outlined in yesterday's video. Continue reading "Dead Cat Bounce"→
What is a dead cat bounce? It is simply a rally from a very oversold condition. That's the case today as many of the markets have literally gone straight down in the first weeks of 2016 and contributed to the worst start of any year in the history of trading.
A dead cat bounce does not mean a trend change or that you have made a major bottom in the market. Technically, a dead cat bounce is really just a short covering rally from a market that is very oversold. If and when the major indices are going to reverse the trend and move back up, they are going to have to do quite a bit of repair work to change the negative technical picture that we are currently facing.
After the close today Netflix.com Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) will report earnings - the current technical picture for this stock is mixed. The longer-term trend for Netflix is positive with a green Trade Triangle in place. However, the intermediate-term trend is down with a red weekly Trade Triangle. I would suggest standing on the sidelines at the moment. Continue reading "Beware Of Dead Cat Bounces"→
This week has been one for the history books and it's not over with yet, we still have today's action to contemplate. So what has the market really accomplished this week? Well, it has frustrated both the bulls and the bears, that's for sure. It's hard to believe that after all of this chop that the Dow is only up 1.18% for the week if it closes where it is currently trading (and less than that on the S&P 500).
What does all of this choppy action mean? Has the market topped out? Is this a "dead cat bounce"?
Let's just let all the dust settle and see what is going on in the major indices for the week and the month.
Whether we like it or not, the markets made history with yesterday's 1000+ point swing in the Dow. We've also never seen three days in a row where this index has lost 300 points each and every day. So what does all this mean? What it underscores is just how fragile the world markets are at the moment and the general uncertainty and concern that investors have in the U.S., Europe and Asia.
At the moment, China is writing the script and with today's announcement of yet another cut in interest rates I don't see how China can win no matter what it does. It is very hard to bring back investor confidence and trust to the markets once it has gone. I think the loss of confidence has already happened in China and no matter what the government does, it is not going to be enough to bring it back any time soon.
The fact is, the government of China is in a lose-lose position no matter what they do and they have just brought this upon themselves. I do not expect the Shanghai index to rebound in a sustained manner anytime soon.
I'm not sure who created the phrase "dead cat bounce" and how it relates to the market, but it goes like this. When a market has had a pronounced move down like we've just seen in all the major indices and in many stocks, it's not unusual for the market to rebound. Professionals call this a "dead cat bounce" and it is not to be trusted as it does not change the previous negative direction of the market. It is simply a rebound, possibly caused by news or a short covering rally. Continue reading "Beware Of Dead Cats"→
Today, I'm reviewing three metals based on short-term analysis.
Copper Is A Good Sell
In my January post, I recommended selling copper above $2.75 and I hope you enjoyed a nice profit. For those of you who didn’t take that chance, below is my new one for you.
In December, copper entered a small steeper downtrend (highlighted in red) as the falling price accelerated. After breaking below the descending triangle’s base at $3.02 on the monthly charts, this red metal hit a multi-year low at $2.42, unseen from 2009, losing an impressive 20% in just 2 months. The price met the downside of the channel and quickly bounced off for a $0.20 gain and I will show why you should consider it a dead cat bounce. Continue reading "Short Copper, Pray For Gold, Watch Ratio"→