The Yin and Yang of the "FISCAL CLIFF"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with a mid-day up-date for Wednesday the 28th of November.

THE FISCAL CLIFF QUASHES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE!

Consumer confidence, which jumped to its best levels in four and a half years, is taking a back seat today to the "Fiscal Cliff", which is like the 800LB gorilla in the room. Depending what the politicians do and don't do, which is a non-predictable item at the moment, the "Fiscal Cliff" is going to be the Yin and Yang of the financial markets for the next several months. I would not hold my breath waiting for politicians to make a decision quickly on the "Fiscal Cliff" as both parties are being held hostage by their own parties' far right and far left wings.

THE FISCAL CLIFF AND THE EQUITIES MARKETS

Based on our Trade Triangle technology, we still believe that the trend is negative for the equity markets. We expect to see the equity markets trade sideways before taking another downturn. Everything is going to be predicated on the "Fiscal Cliff". Continue reading "The Yin and Yang of the "FISCAL CLIFF"" →

Short & Intermediate View of the Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The US indexes predictably rallied during the happy holiday week, with Friday putting a nice punctuation on the bullish proceedings.  In fact, I caught myself looking at the TECL, NUGT and individual gold miner positions in my trading account with a big dumb smile on my face.  Then I sold them all.  Sidetracking for a moment, I have found that I need to get back to more active trading so I am going to further fund this account and ruthlessly trade this market in a discreet account for pure trading.

Back on the post’s theme, the holiday volume was suspect to say the least.  I have a preferred macro theme for the intermediate term however, and it is bullish for an extended rally pending a confirmation of, or more likely a cleaning out of last week’s bullish enthusiasm. Continue reading "Short & Intermediate View of the Market" →

USD/JPY: Lemons into Lemonade

Posted on by The INO.com Team

How Elliott wave analysis helps you as a forex trader with built-in, risk-defining safeguards

Elliott wave analysis is not a crystal ball. (No market-forecasting method is.)

But here's what is remarkable: Even when your Elliott wave forecast doesn't pan out, you have built-in safeguards to alert you -- and help you manage risk. Here's a real-life example.

Going into the November 14 low, USD/JPY charts had been showing an impulsive downward Elliott wave pattern. Impulses are 5-wave moves, but on November 13-14, the pattern looked incomplete: the fifth wave down seemed to be missing.

Here's a chart our Currency Specialty Service subscribers saw early on November 13: Continue reading "USD/JPY: Lemons into Lemonade" →

Consumer confidence jumps to best levels in 54 months … and why nobody wants to take a haircut

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Tuesday, the 27th of November.

HOORAY FOR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, BUT IS IT ENOUGH?

Consumer confidence jumped to its best levels in four and a half years. Is that going to be enough to save the economy? We still believe the stock market is in a negative mode, and it is certainly reflecting that today. The big dilemma in our minds is the "Fiscal Cliff". Is anyone, Republican and Democrat alike, willing to take haircut on their special exemptions? Fiscal matters like the proverbial "Fiscal Cliff" tend to get booted down the road. Just look at what's going on in Europe, they are the example we are unfortunately following.

MIXED PICTURE IN THE EQUITIES MARKETS

After last Friday's big jump in the equity markets, we are seeing a somewhat mixed picture for the last two days. Based on our Trade Triangles, we think we will see this market trade sideways before taking another downturn. Everything is going to be predicated on the rise and fall in optimism concerning the "Fiscal Cliff" conundrum. Continue reading "Consumer confidence jumps to best levels in 54 months … and why nobody wants to take a haircut" →

Is a Carbon Tax a Done Deal for the US?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We know Obamarama is going to tax the rich, but I bet many didn't think he would weasel in the carbon tax as quickly as he is going to now. A Romney win would have been bullish for coal producers in the US – but Romney lost, and now so has coal, at least in the near term. The biggest winner from Obamarama? Natural gas.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is now supporting Obama in bringing a carbon tax to the US.

Why would Exxon – and other big energy companies – join forces to bring on the carbon tax?

The answer is simple: profits. Continue reading "Is a Carbon Tax a Done Deal for the US?" →