The Looming Greek Disaster

Posted on by The INO.com Team

How do you spell Greece? D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R

Remember Greece? Yes, that's the very same country that created all the problems for the world's economies back in 2008. Well, Greece is back and the problems could be even greater this time. I'm not sure who it was who said this, but it has been said that you don't solve debt problems by piling more debt on to more debt. I agree, but that is exactly what the world has been doing since 2009.

In every great challenge there are great opportunities and 2015 could be one of those extraordinary years when smart investors can do very, very well. I don't think it's going be on the long side of the market, however. I think this bull market that has been going on for six years is about to come to a screeching halt as reality finally sinks in and we begin to pay for the folly of our deeds. Continue reading "The Looming Greek Disaster" →

It’s Time To End "Considerable Time" Talk

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


What do you think will happen first: The Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, or the Cubs win the World Series for the first time since 1908?

Richard Lehmann, writing in his Fixed–Income Watch column in the recent issue of Forbes magazine, says the odds are about the same. Lehmann expects the Fed to keep short-term rates pretty much where they are – i.e. at or near zero – for some time to come. "The Fed talks a good line and promises to act responsibly once employment and the economy improve or the threat of deflation disappears," he writes. "But that's kind of like waiting for the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series again."

Actually though, the chances of the Cubs winning the World Series soon don't look so far-fetched. Now under Theo Epstein, the principal architect of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox that broke the 86-year old Curse of the Bambino, the Cubs have put together a solid team of talented young players and added former Tampa Bay Rays manager, Joe Madden, as their skipper during the off-season. Now they've also reportedly signed free agent pitcher, Jon Lester. Las Vegas currently has the Cubs at about 14 to 1 odds to win the 2015 Series, one of the top eight or so teams in baseball.

Can we say the same thing about the Fed raising rates soon?
Continue reading "It’s Time To End "Considerable Time" Talk" →

Platinum And Palladium Chart Analysis

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Platinum Monthly Chart Analysis

Platinum fell in a downtrend in 2011 after the price formed a reversal double top pattern, which was confirmed on the RSI. Price rapidly reached $1400/oz, scoring $445 for the bears. The market easily overcame 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, but was stopped in four consecutive attempts by a very hard 50% level at $1345/oz. The bulls didn't jump at their chance to break upside at the $1676 level after consolidation. Later this peak became the downtrend touch point. It could be classic ascending triangle pattern, but the market turned sideways shaping a rectangle formation instead.

You can see on the chart how accurately the RSI indicator shows real and false breaks on the market. In 2013, the RSI didn't break the 40 level support twice, while price moved below $1400 support twice. And the market reversed up inside of the rectangle.

This year, the price was squeezed between downtrend resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the $1470 level on the upside and the rectangle's support at the $1400 level on the lower side. After impulse accumulated enough power, the market first tried testing the upside, but failed and in September moved down and cracked both the $1400 level rectangle support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the last one only with the 5th attempt.

Platinum swiftly appeared at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1221/oz. The price managed to drop below it for a while, but the market closed higher at the $1224 level. Continue reading "Platinum And Palladium Chart Analysis" →

Is The Market At A Tipping Point?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! There's no doubt about it, this bull market which began in Q1 of 2009 is getting a bit long in the tooth and may be setting itself up for a correction in 2015. If that's the case, we could see gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) once again come into fashion as I believe it is building a base to do just that.

Sandy, a valued MarketClub member, asked me to start looking at some shorting opportunities in the stock market. Some of you may never have traded stocks from the short side before, but it can be likened to buying stocks, only in reverse.

It seems like now would be a good time to bring this up, particularly with my thoughts turning more and more to 2015. I'm going to be looking at several stocks that I believe will to continue to erode and offer trading opportunities on the short side of the market. Continue reading "Is The Market At A Tipping Point?" →

Economy Post-'Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates.  Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?

Well I am a visual learner so I for one can never get enough pictures to inform my thinking.  Pardon the redundancy in this chart’s frequent appearances in NFTRH…

sp500
Source: SlopeCharts

The rectangular red box is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), which is 6 years old this month.  If we play it straight we would be expected to believe what the mainstream believes, that the “Great Recession” is a thing of the past and that something built of abnormal policy can proceed per normal metrics and assumptions when abnormal policy is removed.  I don’t buy it. Continue reading "Economy Post-'Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?" →