Is The Bull Trap Complete?

Some of you may be old enough to remember when Desert Storm started in January 1991. The news of this war took the US and the world by storm – almost literally. It was televised and it changed the way people lived their lives at that time. People were almost glued to the TV watching the videos and satellite feeds. It turned into the ultimate reality TV series – must-see TV.

The US markets reacted to this foreign engagement. At first, the markets rallied for about 7+ weeks in early 1991, then they started to consolidate below resistance. For many people and businesses, this new reality event presented very real challenges for revenues and growth. Many businesses were forced to close because of the sudden shift in consumer activity and concerns. The reason I’m bringing this up right now is that I believe we are experiencing a new type of “reality event” (actually events) that has transitioned to become a driving force in the markets, namely COVID and the protests/riots in many cities across the US.

Chaos & Disease – The Ultimate Distractions

With the US Presidential Election only about 60+ days away and winter fast approaching, the US has a number of fundamental issues to contend with going forward. What happens if the US elections are contested in the courts? What happens to policy and the support for the consumer/markets when the US government potentially enters this chaotic phase? What happens when winter hits and businesses that have been struggling through the warm summer months suddenly find themselves losing more revenues and customers? What happens if the streets remain in a state of unrest throughout the rest of this year and into next year? Continue reading "Is The Bull Trap Complete?"

Were The New Market Highs A Bull Trap?

On Tuesday we witnessed the S&P 500 and the DOW make new all-time highs. What is the significance of this? If you've been following my work and reading our comments then you're probably familiar with the 52-Week New Highs on Friday Rules which go like this:

Rule #1: On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy and go home long for the weekend.

Rule #2: Exit the long position on the opening the following Tuesday.

Rule #3: If the market opens lower on Monday, exit this position immediately.

Since making their highs on Tuesday, the DOW and S&P 500 have been steadily moving lower and are in danger of closing lower for the week. Doing so would create a "negative engulfing line." A "negative engulfing line" or "bearish engulfing line," as it is some times called, is when the market price action engulfs the previous open and high period for the preceding week or day. If this turns out to be the case for the DOW and S&P 500 and this coming week they both close lower for the week, then the odds are pretty high that a top is more than likely in place. Continue reading "Were The New Market Highs A Bull Trap?"