For the Week of May 13, 2013
By: Don DeBartolo
The GBE Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.
Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:
June 2013 British Pound
The June 2013 British Pound futures contract closed below a lower trend line on Friday. There are touches on the trend line at 1.4823 (3/12/13), 1.5027 (4/04/13), and 1.5192 (4/23/13). The Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool to help identify market trend) is Neutral. The MACD, a trend indicator, is bearish and above the baseline. Although MACD is bearish, until the Trend Seeker changes to a Downtrend, there is no entry trigger confirmation. Continue reading "Beyond the "Spotlight""
In a previous article, I explained commodity option expiration, exercising, and assignment. I noted a long (purchased) option position (call or put) has the right to exercise the contract. To make an informed decision, I will explain the result of exercising an option contract.
A commodity option contract is a decaying asset that will expire. As an option contract draws near its expiration date, set by the exchanges, both the time value and intrinsic value diminish. Time value is premium in relation to days until expiration. Intrinsic value is the premium in relation to the strike price’s distance from underlying futures contract price. Note that volatility will also play a role in the calculated premium price. The exception to intrinsic value diminishing is an in-the-money contract. At that point, the intrinsic value is a one-to-one ratio of the strike price in relation to the underlying futures contract. For example, a long April 2013 Gold 1600 call will be valued at 50 points (or $5,000) if futures are at 1650.0 on option expiration (March 25, 2013). On the other hand, if futures are at 1600.0 or below on expiration, the option contract is valued at zero. An in-the-money contract, before expiration, will also have time value included in the premium price. However, because there are a number of finite days until expiration, the time value diminishes from day one. Continue reading "To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question"
The first Managed Futures Fund may have actually been established around 1948, but the investment vehicle really became en vogue as Richard Dennis and his infamous “Turtles” gained in popularity. Richard Dennis, although working his way up from a runner, really began his reputation as large trader in the 70’s. The 70’s had crop failures to contend with and inflationary conditions which Richard Dennis could use his trend-trading style to position trade. By 1983, he believed that he could teach his methodology to an average woman/man to trade successfully as he had. He had been quoted by the Wall Street Journal in 1989 saying “We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore” thus coining the name “Turtles”! He selected his 21 men and 2 woman to learn the trend-following system with success, increasing his notoriety and adding some new traders to the spotlight. Actually about 60% of the trades may have lost money getting stopped out while the balance of trades were held with trailing stops to garnish more from the position. Other traders sprang up into the spotlight like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry. The methodology is proprietary to the trader and never really divulged, so the entries, stops and the targets remain exclusive in most managed products. The trading model may take years to cultivate! Futures trading is a zero-sum game where there is a loss for every gain and vice versa. The challenge for the trader was to create a percentage to his/her favor! Continue reading "The Future of Managed Futures… Past, Present and Future!"
DESPITE END-OF-YEAR VOLATILITY, UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR GOLD & SILVER AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE GOING FORWARD, POTENTIALLY PROPELLING THEM FAR BEYOND THEIR ALL-TIME HIGHS OF $1920 GOLD & $50 SILVER IN 2013
Now that Thanksgiving has passed and the Holiday Season is in full swing with thoughts turning toward Hanukkah, Christmas, and the New Year, I’m getting asked more and more questions from traders and investors who are very concerned - even anxious, about the Fiscal Cliff, the Debt Ceiling, tax implications/considerations regarding both and how all of this will play out in the precious metals markets. So, in this edition of the GSS, I’d really like to focus on the bigger picture.
But before we delve into that, I must take a moment to address yesterday’s violent intraday price move in Gold (and Silver to a lesser extent). We witnessed another one of those counter-intuitive, intense, vicious “waterfall selloffs” or spikes lower that seem to “randomly” occur from time to time over the past couple of years.
Massive and concentrated volume hit the market immediately on the NY Pit open: Over 35,000 lots or contracts reportedly traded - the equivalent of 3.5 Million ounces of Gold - with nearly 7800 contracts (that’s 24 TONS!) traded electronically in a single minute, slamming the price of Gold down -$36. The price drop was not enormous in percentage terms, but the volume size and velocity of the move still shocked many market participants as there was no corresponding “news” to point to. Continue reading "Gold & Silver Speculator"