Inflation, interest rates, employment, Fed taper, pandemic backdrop, Washington wrangling, supply chain disruptions, slowing growth, and the seasonally weak period for stocks are all aggregating and resulting in the current market swoon. The month of September saw a 4.8% market drawdown, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The initial portion of October was met with heavy losses as well. Many individual stocks have reached correction territory, technically a 10% drop, while the Nasdaq is also closing in on that 10% correction level. Many high-quality names are selling at deep discounts of 10%-30% off their 52-week highs. The outlook for equities remains positive after the weak September as the economy continues to move past the pandemic. During these correction/near correction periods in the market, putting cash to work in high-quality long equity is a great way to capitalize on the market weakness for long-term investors. Absent of any systemic risk, there’s a lot of appealing entry points for many large-cap names. Don’t’ be too bearish or remiss and ignore this potential buying opportunity.
For any portfolio structure, having cash on hand is essential. This cash position provides investors with flexibility and agility when faced with market corrections. Cash enables investors to be opportunistic and capitalize on stocks that have sold off and become de-risked. Initiating new positions or dollar-cost averaging in these weak periods are great long-term drivers of portfolio appreciation. Many household names such as Starbucks (SBUX), UnitedHealth (UNH), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Micron (MU), Adobe (ADBE), Qualcomm (QCOM), 3M (MMM), Facebook (FB), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Mastercard (MA), Nike (NKE), PayPal (PYPL) and FedEx (FDX) are off 10%-30% from their 52-week highs. Even the broad market indices such as Dow Jones (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ), and the Russell 2000 (IWM) are significantly off their 52-week highs. All of these are examples of potentially buying opportunities via deploying some of the cash on hand. Continue reading "Market Swoon - Deploying Capital"→
Earnings season is getting underway, and thus far Costco (COST), Federal Express (FDX), and Nike (NKE) have warned that inflation is real and is bound to hit consumers as the holidays approach. Costco, Federal Express, and Nike are seeing rising shipping costs and supply chain disruptions that persist and should continue through the upcoming holiday season. In particular, the cost to ship containers overseas has skyrocketed over the past few months. These rising inflation expectations and the realization of these inflationary pressured could cause the Federal Reserve to change policy course sooner rather than later. It’s going to be a tug-a-war between inflation, employment, Washington wrangling, and the delta variant backdrop. CPI reports will become more significant as these readings are used to identify periods of inflation. The recent CPI readings result in a much stronger influence on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies hence the recent taper guidance.
Real World Inflationary Commentary
Supply chain disruptions, specifically in the shipping channels, have led to rising freight costs that have escalated shipping costs dramatically. The cost to ship containers overseas has soared in recent months. A standard 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York costs about $2,000 a year and a half ago pre-pandemic. Now, it runs some $16,000, per Bank of America.
Costco CFO Richard Galanti called freight costs “permanent inflationary items” and said those increases combine with things that are “somewhat permanent” to drive up pressure. They include freight and higher labor costs, rising demand for transportation and products, shortages in computer chips, oils, and chemicals, and higher commodity prices. Continue reading "Ominous Inflationary Signs Evident"→
After the close of business today Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will report its fourth quarter earnings. I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at the last three years to see how you would have done if you just used this simple trade strategy.
The premise is simple, when both the weekly and monthly Trade Triangles are in sync, i.e. when they are both in the same direction, you would take a position on the close in the direction the Trade Triangles were indicating. You would then exit this position the following day on the close.
So here's what is needed to make a trade in Apple before today's earnings report is released. The position is taken the day Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) releases its earnings report, i.e. today.
(1) Both the weekly and monthly Trade Triangles are in sync.
(2) Take a position on the close in the direction the Trade Triangles are indicating.
(3) Exit the position the following day on the close.
These are simple, straightforward instructions. As an old mentor of mine used to say, "They don't pay you any more for making it complicated."
Today, I'm going to investigate whether or not MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology can predict stock earnings.
To do this I randomly chose 7 stocks that just reported their Q3 earnings. Here are the rules I followed for taking or not taking a position in a stock before a company announced its earnings.
Long And Short Rules
Use the Trade Triangle technology to determine how you would have been positioned in each stock before they announced their earnings. You are looking for uniformity between the monthly and weekly Trade Triangles, i.e. a matching monthly and weekly green Trade Triangle would indicate holding a long position before an earnings announcement. Conversely, a matching monthly and weekly red Trade Triangle would indicate holding a short position before an earnings announcement.
When there is a conflict between the weekly and monthly Trade Triangles, a sideline position is in order. For example, if a monthly Trade Triangle is green and the weekly Trade Triangle is red, it would indicate a sideline position.
Generally, Wall Street earnings have no direct impact on how we view the dollar outlook. Yet, there are exceptions and this week is one such notable example. What types of earnings are significant enough to shed light on the dollar’s future; you might wonder. The simple answer is this: Bank earnings, which are abundant this week.
Why do Bank Earnings Matter?
As we all know, the Federal Reserve has the greatest impact on the dollar. Outside of the Fed, bank earnings impact the dollar’s outlook because they reveal the credit supply. Of course, the supply of credit in the US economy affects the American consumer. In turn, the American consumer impacts inflation. And that brings us full circle since the inflation outlook typically helps shape Fed policy. Continue reading "Bank Earnings To Impact Dollar Sentiment"→