Favorable Backdrop and Financials
The latest Federal Reserve meeting indicated that interest rate increases might need to be accelerated while boosting its domestic GDP estimates for 2018 and 2019 alluding to a domestic and global economic expansion. Augmenting this economic backdrop is a record number of IPOs, a record number of global merger and acquisitions, rising interest rates, market volatility, deregulation and tax reform. All of these elements provide an ideal confluence that bodes well for the financial sector. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in particular looks to benefit in unique ways due to the consulting fees regarding mergers and acquisitions, trading around market volatility, launching of its cryptocurrency futures contracts as well as rising interest rates as Goldman Sachs has entered into the commercial banking segment when the bank acquired GE Capital’s savings business in 2016 assuming approximately $16 billion of deposits at the time. JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC) are all poised to benefit from the favorable economic backdrop as well however I feel Goldman is in a unique position to benefit across the board in all business segments. Goldman Sachs is relatively inexpensive based on historical standards after a string of quarterly results that have beat Wall Street’s estimates. Goldman Sachs offers a 1.3% dividend yield that was recently increased and a share buyback program to augment the overall favorable backdrop providing a compelling long-term buy. Continue reading "Goldman Sachs - A Compelling Long-Term Buy"
It's no secret – it's a tough market out there. Oil prices are at record lows, the US dollar remains stubbornly strong, and now the Fed has all but admitted that the economy is weaker than expected and we might need to start preparing for negative rates.
In this kind of environment, smaller companies can often slip through the volatility. They can ride the waves of uncertainty and ignore macroeconomic hardships that plague their larger competitors making the smaller one an unlikely winner. If that stock is an industry which is trending higher, that's even better.
One stock in the communications sector is slipping through the noise and could be a huge opportunity for investors. The communications sector is widely viewed as an industry undergoing a rising tide, which as most investors know means it lifts all ships within that industry. Continue reading "This Unlikely Stock Is Hitting On All Cylinders"
After the close today, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) announces its earnings for the fourth quarter. Analysts are expecting Disney to make $1.45 a share on revenues of 14.7 billion. But here's the rub, ESPN which produces 45% of Disney's revenues, lost 3 million subscribers last year and is now a potential Achilles' heel for Disney.
Here's how I'm looking at Disney:
The Trade Triangles are all red and negative indicating lower prices. Technically the chart for Disney looks dismal at best. Based on those two elements, I expect Disney to either come in on analysts estimates or to miss their earnings. I do not expect to see a surprise on the upside here. Based on that analysis you would want to be short (if you're not already based on the Trade Triangles) Disney before the close today.
Another stock that is set to report fourth-quarter 2015 results after the close today is Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:AKAM). Analysts estimate that this stock should have positive earnings of around $0.50 a share. I would be surprised given the overall negative tone of tech stocks that even if Akamai reports good earnings, it won't go far on the upside. Technically speaking this stock according to the Trade Triangles is in a major downtrend, it has however completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is within striking distance of a long-term support line which comes in around $37 a share. I would be more inclined to go with the trend and stay short this market. The original Trade Triangle sell signal for this stock came on 7/6/15 at $69.13. Akamai closed on Monday evening at $40.98. Continue reading "Can Star Wars Save Disney Or Will ESPN Sink The Ship?"
Let me begin by acknowledging the Chinese New Year. You might ask yourself, "What does that have to do with the markets here in the US?" My answer to you would be everything. Remember how influenced we were with the slowdown in China last year? This slowdown could be exacerbated in 2016, putting even more pressure on our markets here.
2016 represents the year of the "Red Monkey" on the Chinese calendar and it does not auger well for stocks according to "The Business Times" of Singapore.
Here's what they say:
"Do not expect the Year of the Monkey to be easy for investments. You need to outsmart the monkey to do well in the lunar year 2016. Do expect world events impacting stock markets and investments to change sharply and quickly, like the agile monkey."
"Expect markets to be volatile in the first half of the year (we've already got that) and for events to unfold quickly," their Chinese astrology expert says.
"The Year of the Monkey is going to shake, rattle and roil financial markets. One has to be as intelligent, witty and nimble as the monkey to do well in such investment landscape," he writes.
The most-recent Monkey year was 2004. In that year, the Shanghai Composite climbed 36% only to come crashing down in a 44% correction that bottomed in June 2005 (and then rallied 500%).
MarketClub translation - be nimble in 2016. Continue reading "Is It A Monkey That's Going To Sink The Market?"
It has been a great week with some strong trades happening. One of those stocks has to be LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE:LNKD), the professional social media site that recently updated its website with a redesign. After the bell yesterday, LinkedIn announced its earnings and future outlook. Upon seeing the numbers, investors bolted to the escape doors as LinkedIn clearly missed its target and future outlook.
Did this come as a big surprise to us at MarketClub? The answer, in all honesty, is no as all of the Trade Triangles were negative indicating a lower trend for LinkedIn.
It is hard to ignore the power of the Trade Triangles during earnings season. Continue reading "Did you see LinkedIn (LNKD) Today?"