Tag: Guest Bloggers

Rohit Savant Expects the Gold Bull Market to Pause in 2013

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The Gold Report: Rohit, in a recent interview you said gold is "not a guaranteed safe haven." In your view, what are effective ways to preserve capital?

Rohit Savant: If you're talking about preserving capital, it depends a great extent on your timeframe and your risk appetite.

"When the fiscal cliff debate intensifies as we get closer to the deadline, we may see the gold price rise in response."

If you're looking at the short term and want no fluctuations in your principal, the best way to preserve it would be either certificates of deposit or T-bills and hope that inflation doesn't rise significantly.

But if you are looking at the longer term and are willing to take some ups and downs in your capital, a better way of preserving or increasing your capital would be investments in equities, real estate and gold. You could reduce the risk a bit by purchasing dividend-paying equities.

TGR: Do you believe gold is an effective way to preserve capital?

RS: Over the long term, it is. In the short term, you are going to see fluctuations in prices.

TGR: What range do you expect gold to trade in through the first half of 2013? Continue reading "Rohit Savant Expects the Gold Bull Market to Pause in 2013" →

Chart to Watch - Natural Gas

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.

Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Natural Gas (NG.H13.E).

This week let's take a look at Natural Gas.

The Natural Gas chart put in a monthly green MarketClub Trade Triangle in July and the monthly Triangle has stayed green since.

The red and green weekly MarketClub Trade Triangles since July show the bull swings and counter trend corrections in the larger up trend.

Natural Gas may have put in a correction low for the current counter trend correction. Continue reading "Chart to Watch - Natural Gas" →

Byron King's Shocking 2013 Predictions

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The Energy Report: Let's start with a recent takeover deal that's been getting a lot of criticism in recent weeks. Freeport-McMoRan Copper Gold Inc. (FCX:NYSE) made a $9 billion takeover offer for the oil and gas explorer McMoRan Exploration Co. (MMR:NYSE) and Houston-based Plains Exploration Production (PXP:NYSE). Are you happy with this deal?

Byron King: It came as a surprise. I've held McMoRan Exploration in Energy Scarcity for about two years. I like what McMoRan is working to do with deep gas in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, I recommended that readers take their money off the table with this deal. Sell the shares, take the cash and we'll find other opportunities.

McMoRan Exploration nearly doubled after the Freeport announcement, going from $8 to $15 per share. You can't walk away from that kind of potential gain. Take your money, pay your taxes at the lower 2012 rates and do something else with the money next year.

There's another angle to this takeover. Freeport and Plains together already own about 36% of McMoRan. There are a lot of ties here, between key individuals. I think this deal was driven by the impending tax changes next year. Freeport, the copper play, is borrowing a lot of money to fund this whole process. Fortunately, interest rates are very low, so it's borrowing cheap to do a big takeover, which will give a lot of people a really sweet payday, and they'll get to pay capital gains taxes at much lower rates this year than if they wait until January 2013.

TER: James "Jim Bob" Moffett, who founded McMoRan, is also paying himself. He was a significant shareholder in McMoRan Exploration. He's taking from his left pocket to put it in his right pocket. Continue reading "Byron King's Shocking 2013 Predictions" →

When to Pay Off Your Mortgage

Posted on by The INO.com Team

My good friend Rob recently paraphrased Warren Buffett as saying, “If he knew where he was going to live for the next decade, he’d buy a house with a long-term mortgage.” Buffett thought a mortgage was a good hedge against inflation, because the homeowner would pay off the mortgage with cheaper dollars down the road.

My own mortgage caused great conflict between the emotional and logical sides of my brain. When I was contemplating paying it off, I spoke with a financial counselor and explained that I was self-employed and my mortgage was my largest monthly payment. I suggested paying it off to eliminate stress. He pooh-poohed that idea, and insisted that I could easily earn more after taxes than the cost of a first mortgage.

I asked if his mortgage was paid off. He looked at me and said, “Oh hell yes!” I was flabbergasted. How could he advise me to do one thing when he’d done the exact opposite? He explained that his wife was from Germany – the old school where you pay your bills and keep out of debt. Were it not for her, he’d gladly have a mortgage. Continue reading "When to Pay Off Your Mortgage" →

What's Wrong With Gold?!?!

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Nothing. It’s what’s wrong with peoples’ expectations and perceptions that is the problem.

Once again I’ll quote NFTRH 208 from October 14 (that edition and a sample interim update can be reviewed here: Samples), not to be an ‘I told you so’ wise guy (I didn’t definitively tell anybody anything), but rather to highlight how important sentiment is to this sector and also I suppose to too the horn a little with respect to good risk management.

“Sentiment is over bullish in the precious metals. Public opinion is over bullish, Hulbert’s HGNSI is over bullish and the CoT data show that the little and big speculators are over bullish. This should be cleared out before we renew our bullish enthusiasm on a risk vs. reward basis. Broad stock sentiment is in a better state than in the precious metals. It is mostly neutral.”

The over bullish sentiment in the precious metals has been ground down to a current state of numbness at best, and full out despair at worst. Actually, it is the reverse; a state of despair is best for a contrarian opportunist.

I have received hate mail over the years for the way I poke at the gold “community” even as I am and have been a gold bull. That is because psychologically, this “community” fancies itself as the battlers of evil, the doers of good; and do you know what? Evil wins some pretty big battles along the way. I want neither NFTRH’s subscriber nor myself fighting that battle.

Rather, a calm perspective is required ALL the time; when a market is surging with bullish enthusiasm and when it is in the grips of despair. It is important to look around the next corner and be prepared. It’s what they taught me in Boy Scouts and it has never failed me.

Putting lectures aside, let’s catch up on gold as measured in a few currencies after a look at the nominal weekly chart. Continue reading "What's Wrong With Gold?!?!" →