In February 2023, the US economy produced 311,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 205,000, and revised down from 504,000 in January. This indicates a labor market that remains tight, with an average of 343,000 jobs added per month over the previous six months.
This is another upbeat NFP report following last month's even stronger data. The Fed now has more ammunition to potentially raise rates by 0.5% at their next meeting.
Let's take a look at how the market reacted to this report.
Chart Courtesy: finviz.com
The top three winners last Friday, when the jobs report was published, were VIX, which gained +9.42% in just one day, heating oil futures, which rose by +4.22%, and the Swiss franc, which increased by +2.75%. Continue reading ""50 Cent" Profits From 3-Letter Acronyms"
Today a good friend of mine John Bougearel of Financial Futures Analysis will share with us his trend strategy during 2009 Earnings Season. Take a look, then let us know how earnings affect your trading.
The SP500 NFP +1 Day Model for April 3: In Advance of the Q1 09 Earnings Season Model
A longstanding behavioral finance model that I use considers the release of an important announcement plus one or two days. The flipside of this is model is the release of an important announcement minus a day or two. In this instance, we are considering is the NFP +1 day model. A second perhaps more important model to address is how the pricing of the SP 500 during the Q1 09 earnings season might or might not correlate to the pricing model Q4 08 earnings model. The two are interrelated and must be considered together.
Continue reading "Earnings and Market Behavior"