Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.
Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.
While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.
HUI Gold Bugs Index
First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013. They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation. Continue reading "HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts" →
The Gold Report: In your latest newsletter, you advocate that gold investors pay close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting taking place on June 18. What are you looking for out of that meeting?
Brien Lundin: The main driver for gold right now is quantitative easing (QE). An investor trying to figure out where the gold market is heading in the near to intermediate term needs to focus on QE. Investors should look for clues to the future prospects of the Fed's QE programthat's what's going to drive gold in the short and intermediate term. The question really is: To QE or not to QE? The next Fed meeting will be a prime indicator of that, and the one after that and the one after that.
My general view is that the reports of a resurgent U.S. economy are way ahead of themselves and some data points are indicating that the recovery is not that robust and may even be in danger. The jobs numbers will shed some light on this. If such a scenario develops, then the snap back for gold would be pretty dramatic. A weakening U.S. economy would be bullish for gold because it's bullish for continued QE, and that's the real factor for gold going forward.
TGR: Besides the jobs numbers and the Fed meeting minutes, what indicators are you watching to get some insight into whether the economy really is improving? Continue reading "Physical Gold and Paper Gold Battling for Supremacy" →