Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?

Both metals went amazingly well with the plan that I shared with you a month ago. I have shown you a possible structure of more complex correction and set the time targets for both metals. Below you can see where you thought the completion of the corrective move would finish.

gold silver poll

The votes were split almost even with a little margin in favor of the gold bugs as they preferred January 2020 as the ending point for the current extended correction. Silver fans chose Christmas day as their metal's chart showed it as a result of calculations.

Later on, there was an update where I set the price targets for both gold, and silver for the upcoming drop as the structure got more clarity.

As time goes by and the chart moves to the right, adding more and more bars, we can see the picture even clearer now to adjust both time and price targets for top metals below. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?"

Updating The 3 Amigos And The Global Macro Message

This morning in pre-market the Amigos’ futures charts update the macro story…

global macro

…which goes something like this…

Copper, the cyclical Amigo (weekly chart) has furthered the intermediate trend line break we noted on October 25th. This is in line with the rally in US and global stock markets and even more so, the global macro reflation theme. It does not look so impressive yet on this weekly chart, but other components of the macro trade are starting to look impressive, especially on daily charts. So… steady as she goes. Continue reading "Updating The 3 Amigos And The Global Macro Message"

Silver & Gold To Inform Dr. Copper

They call copper the metal with the Ph.D. in Economics. But these days Doctor Copper is little more than a quack in that regard, taking a cue from the metals whose interplay will be critical to deciding the coming macro for 2020 and the run-up to the next US election. Thus, they are the 3 Metallic Amigos, riding together but providing different signals at different times (this being nftrh.com, you will have to put up with the odd shtick from time to time).

Silver Gold Copper

As we have noted repeatedly, the Silver/Gold ratio takes it place alongside other indicators (like long-term Treasury yields, yield curve, TIPs ratios, inflation breakevens, etc.) of a would-be inflationary environment. When silver (more cyclical, commodity-like characteristics) rises vs. gold (more counter-cyclical, liquidity haven characteristics) it is a hint toward an inflationary macro.

A daily chart of silver/gold shows a constructive ratio at yesterday’s close and this morning in pre-market silver is +2.77% while gold is +.77%. The implication could well be an end to the current bull flag consolidation at the moving averages and the next upturn in silver/gold, the miners and possibly the inflation/reflation trades that tend to follow. Continue reading "Silver & Gold To Inform Dr. Copper"

Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse...

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

We are all wrong at times. My point here is that you can state your case humbly, be wrong and try to do better next time or you can state your case in an emotionally charged manner, suck in some newbies, be wrong and then do it the hell again!… and again… and again. That is what I have observed over nearly 20 years of closely watching the sector. The spin cycle repeats over and over because new marks are being minted in the markets all the time. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse..."

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"